It's all about timing. We have a pronounced split stream this year. People forget to take that into account when evaluating long range model output. It's bad in the D10 period in general, but throw in a pronounced split flow with waves moving through every couple of days and you will take bad D10 performance and turn it into horrific D10 performance. Our best bet is to look at the big picture pattern present on the models and see if there is agreement that a winter storm is possible. In this case, it is. But the nature of the pattern means that timing has to be nearly perfect. The window isn't very wide.
We've had exactly 3 out of the last 10 GFS runs show a winter storm (outside of some slop in the foothills before the changeover).
Last night's 0z run. You got a high just north of the Lakes. No 50/50, but enough energy in the N/S to phase in with the southern stream and allow for juuuuust enough cold air to support snow.
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The Euro has no phasing...the southern stream system moves in later. Here's the 240 map, as I don't have the 228 one.
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And the CMC at 228:
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Here's the 0z GFS from 12/12. Much better interaction with the N/S. It phases and pulls down the needed cold:
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That one is really nice. I don't anticipate a super cold and suppressed pattern. The southern wave needs to phase with a northern wave. Blocking may help with this. But right now, the flow is way too complicated for the models to remotely predict. Phasing is going to be needed. The good thing is, it's possible. The tough things are, A: it's not probable and B: we won't know for a good while yet.