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Pattern The Great December Dump

Ollie Williams said:
The CMC looks a bit interesting at the end of its run.
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With as far south as the CMC has it this is where you would want it to be this far out in case it wants to go NW. That is if it stays on models
 
Rain Cold said:
The old rule of Nino thumb, where it exits at the same latitude it enters, will hopefully hold serve here.
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True and probably will just not as a bowling ball but a jacked up strung out good for nothing mess....
 
I will say that I think the 12/21-12/22 period is a legitimate threat. Almost every run of the GEFS and EPS has shown the potential with a decent setup for the past several days. Almost every member of the GEFS has the system. A couple of days ago some of the members were leaning towards a warmer aps runner. However, the blocking has been improving as well as the PNA. Now some of the ensembles and operational runs are suppressing and squashing the system! Experience tells me its just about everything we look for with a potential system. Cold air will always be an issue in the south, but it feels right to me. Let's see how it trends the next few days.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The Euro doesn't look bad. It has a system, Its just way too suppressed. extremely deep 50/50 low
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The timing of that 50/50 low and a S/W would need to be just right. If a deep 50/50 low comes into places first, a storm system would likely not form. Perhaps one would form after the 50/50 low kicks out, but then it would probably warm ahead of a S/W. A 50/50 can mean a significant east coast snow storm (SECS) but there's no guarantee. If an SECS occurs, bombogenesis can occur far south as the Mid-Atlanic.
packfan98 said:
I will say that I think the 12/21-12/22 period is a legitimate threat. Almost every run of the GEFS and EPS has shown the potential with a decent setup for the past several days. Almost every member of the GEFS has the system. A couple of days ago some of the members were leaning towards a warmer aps runner. However, the blocking has been improving as well as the PNA. Now some of the ensembles and operational runs are suppressing and squashing the system! Experience tells me its just about everything we look for with a potential system. Cold air will always be an issue in the south, but it feels right to me. Let's see how it trends the next few days.
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I have a feeling that time frame is right for something to possibly occur as well. I haven't seen enough consistency for my liking - consistency is your friend. The pattern does though look like something good could happen for that time though.

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