yeah, GEFS has mean SCPs of 2-4, which is pretty high for a ensemble mean, right now things are looking a little unidirectional, but that wind shear is gonna be pretty strong, and cape is gonna be thereMeanwhile something to watch from DOC
DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a
shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the
southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS
Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs
on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave
trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday
ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even
with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately
unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley
on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical
shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and
supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe
thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South
into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold
front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce
severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in
subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent.View attachment 27844
What on earth is a west based -NAO? That must be before my time.
Our pattern in week 2 is trending in a direction that resembles the GEFS cold temperature bias & thus will temporarily mask the underlying issues w/ the model of late around here.
View attachment 27838
The EPS in the 11-15 has obviously been too warm across nearly the entire CONUS.
View attachment 27837
IMHO, and could def. be wrong here, but I think EURO is trying to show us that there is some potential with that system.Uh huh. More separation and stronger blocking.
Don’t look now but the GFS might try and pop a system Tuesday /Wednesday that ARCC has been mentioning
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Honestly better trends though .. big Canadian high with some true cold air is now aroundDang that cinnamon bun in SE canada ruins things
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It’s a -NAO where the highest heights are to the west.
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My bad. I thought you forgot what one was since it's been years.Oh I know. Just thought they were extinct.
Don’t look now but the GFS might try and pop a system Tuesday /Wednesday that ARCC has been mentioning
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