• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern The Great December Dump

Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,353
Reaction score
3,646
Location
SW Ohio
Yeah, even this kind of thing (a modeled deep SE/coastal snowstorm) isn't seen too often. Usually no more than a couple of times a winter at most even on the drunk GFS. But to see it modeled blizzardlike like this with this very strong low winding up? You can go years in between something like this just being modeled just once.

How often has something like this actually occurred (deep SE/coastal near blizzard) including N FL? It would be a once a multidecadal type storm or even rarer than that. It does kind of look like a more wound up version of 1989. Looking at history for windy, blizzardlike storms with several inch+ accumulations way down in the deep SE/coast including N FL, 1989, 1899, and 1800 are the ones that first come to mind. The great 1/1922 and 2/1914 ZR/IP storms were NOT this wound up (unless I'm remembering the maps wrong) and they didn't quite reach into JAX/GNV. 2/1973 did give JAX a little bit but it wasn't this wound up.
It would be fun to track. Thats for sure. I love historic storms.
 

FallsLake

Member
Joined
Dec 13, 2017
Messages
188
Reaction score
406
Location
20 miles north of Raleigh
Hmmm 12k nam going with mid 40s Christmas day...its a bold strategy cotton


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
It's been doing that for the last couple of days. Probably just on crack. It's a good 10 degrees colder than most other models. But other models have cooled somewhat (3-5 degrees) the past few runs.
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
9,426
Reaction score
14,235
Location
Roanoke Rapids, NC
RNK, don't buy it, They going low 60s here Christmas day! Hope there're wrong.
GFS and Euro both showing low 50's tomorrow now and both NAM's upper 40's to low 50's. Might feel like Christmas after all around here tomorrow. Thank the good Lord for backdoor cold fronts

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
9,426
Reaction score
14,235
Location
Roanoke Rapids, NC
IF, and it's a big if I know, but if the NAM is right the torch will be delayed another day....up this way anyhow

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

FallsLake

Member
Joined
Dec 13, 2017
Messages
188
Reaction score
406
Location
20 miles north of Raleigh
The NAM is not backing down on temps tomorrow, some clouds a N/NE breeze... maybe


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Yeah, it looks like folks that get under some clouds will be the coolest. RAH now acknowledging this:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1023 AM Tuesday... Synoptic scale ridging and associated subsidence will overspread the region from the west as the deep layer cyclone off the SE US coast continues to move offshore, away from the region. Resultant wall- wall sunshine will result in mild temps today, ranging from upper 50s across the NE to lower/mid 60s SW. Lingering pressure gradient will result in some occasional NE gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range from late morning and into the afternoon. A weak, dry back-door cold front across north VA/DC will settle south into the area late this afternoon/this evening. The NAM continues to suggest that the reinforced NELY low-level flow behind the front will support the development of an area of stratus/low clouds from the Chesapeake Bay region swwd across the NC Coastal Plain, mainly along and east of I-95. Otherwise, other than some fleeting thin cirrus spilling across the area, skies will be mostly clear. The renewed cP surface ridging will otherwise yield low temperatures mostly in the lwr to mid 30s. &&
 

Nick_boynton_

-NAO/+PNA/-AO
Member
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
1,056
Reaction score
1,065
Location
Apex, NC
Yeah I’m 90% sure the one that spins for a day or two and kicks in the first 100 hours of the 12z GFS was once there for 2 weeks straight earlier last week
They are tricky to predict but they always rear their ugly head at some point .. could end up being the wildcard that saves us from too much warmth and even be what brings us the goods
 
Top