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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
yeah, GEFS has mean SCPs of 2-4, which is pretty high for a ensemble mean, right now things are looking a little unidirectional, but that wind shear is gonna be pretty strong, and cape is gonna be there
whatalife
Moderator
The EPS don’t have a clue and are caving slowly to a more colder solution...
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It’s a -NAO where the highest heights are to the west.
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Where did you find these great maps?
Folks, note that in the area from DC SW to N GA, the GEFS cold bias has been the strongest in the entire US while there’s been a pretty strong WARM bias over the Rockies/inter mountain west. This is consistent with the idea that the model itself doesn’t have a consistent cold bias everywhere because much of the bias is instead a pattern bias consistent with a +PNA bias in the means.
OTOH, note that the EPS warm bias is more of a classic warm bias vs the GEFS cold pattern type of bias since this EPS warm bias covers nearly the entire country. But also note that the EPS warm bias doesn’t include most of the SE with even a small cold EPS bias in the far SE consistent with the idea of the tendency of a not strong enough forecasted SER in the means.
Curious to see how this Dec pattern evolves...kind of extrapolating it looks like it could be one of our better Dec patterns since 2010. Can't recall the last Dec or winter month for that matter that had low heights off the east coast.
“Models continue to struggle beyond 5-6 days lead, with the operational models seeing the largest change from yesterday’s 12z run to this morning’s 0z in the 6-10 Day period. The GFS OP gained ~20 GWHDDs, while the Euro OP gained ~14 GWHDDs. The Maxar forecast gained +7.1 GWHDDs over the course of the next 15 days, and +6.1 GWHDDs of the cold change occurred in the 6-10 Day period. There is still room for additional model volatility, and this is echoed by the widening spread of solutions among members of the Euro EN in the Midwest. In St. Louis, the spread among members increases to more than 20° for the average temperatures on Day 7 and is 35° (range from 9°-44°) on Day 8. Similar spreads are in Chicago...”
“The spread is not only wide within the Euro EN, but sizable differences between models also exists. About 12 GWHDDs separate the colder GFS EN from its Euro counterpart. The upper air maps below show where the difference between models originates. The Alaska region will be the area to watch in future model runs, as the colder GFS EN has more ridging here and downstream south displacement of the polar vortex. Alternatively, the Euro EN has more troughing near Alaska and a faster shift warmer from west to central North America under a stronger Pacific influence.” from Maxar
“The spread is not only wide within the Euro EN, but sizable differences between models also exists. About 12 GWHDDs separate the colder GFS EN from its Euro counterpart. The upper air maps below show where the difference between models originates. The Alaska region will be the area to watch in future model runs, as the colder GFS EN has more ridging here and downstream south displacement of the polar vortex. Alternatively, the Euro EN has more troughing near Alaska and a faster shift warmer from west to central North America under a stronger Pacific influence.” from Maxar
IMHO, and could def. be wrong here, but I think EURO is trying to show us that there is some potential with that system.
Storm5
Member
I’m all in on the Chicago snow Monday
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Storm5
Member
Don’t look now but the GFS might try and pop a system Tuesday /Wednesday that ARCC has been mentioning
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Storm5
Member
Up until the energy gets strung out and the western ridge goes to hell
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Here comes the solstice system....let's see what we get looks like it shouldn't be able to NW but temps might be an issue
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Dang that cinnamon bun in SE canada ruins things
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GFS continues to be active across the SE. Very good for continuing to beat back the remaining drought conditions. Hopefully, the active pattern will continue as we transition deeper into winter and evolve to better high latitude support.
The storm around the 21st takes a great track, but we're not getting help farther north. While winter weather is possible, we're still in a period where super timing is needed. We need that PV lobe to scoot east and remain suppressed ahead of the storm. Coming in with or behind the storm effectively blocks our cold air feed, as shown on the 12z run.
The storm around the 21st takes a great track, but we're not getting help farther north. While winter weather is possible, we're still in a period where super timing is needed. We need that PV lobe to scoot east and remain suppressed ahead of the storm. Coming in with or behind the storm effectively blocks our cold air feed, as shown on the 12z run.
Oh I know. Just thought they were extinct.
My bad. I thought you forgot what one was since it's been years.
Definitely trending the right way. Biggest problem I see right now is that is some very dry air being pumped in from the northwest.
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The CMC looks a bit interesting at the end of its run.
