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Pattern The Great December Dump

GaWx

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The 12Z Euro has still another very wet rainstorm including upper low (though not quite to the degree of the current one overall ) for the SE US 12/29-31!
 

BirdManDoomW

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I believe the pattern continues to support snow west of the blue ridge (Louisiana-Tennessee) but less to none in the Carolinas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a winter storm pop up in the extended for places like Mississippi/Alabama.
 

GaWx

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12Z Euro qpf for above mentioned rainstorm: pretty impressive yet again!
1577126906941.png
 

Webberweather53

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The 12Z Euro has still another very wet rainstorm including upper low (though not quite to the degree of the current one overall ) for the SE US 12/29-31!
Cut off upper lows are generally favored during +EPO/-TNH, the modoki El Niño that’s developing as we speak is helping in this regard. +EPO/-TNH are usually starved of cold air and rely on either preceding air masses or near the shoulder of the winter season when the wavelengths are short (mid Feb thru Mar) may be accompanied by significant cP air masses (relative to climo at that time of the year of course)
 

Nick_boynton_

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I think the euro is also hunting at other things near the end of its run.. clearly more ridging near Alaska and that PV is way further east than previous runs
 

Myfrotho704_

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Hmmmmm... Yeah it's out there but the GEFS has ok support for that range. I'd look more at the EPS when it comes out in a couple of hours.
What makes me skeptical of this is how snow happy the gefs was with the current system on the long/medium range, and slowly caved to the EPS, EPS sorta won with this system we’re dealing with in the southeast right now
 

Arcc

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I think the euro is also hunting at other things near the end of its run.. clearly more ridging near Alaska and that PV is way further east than previous runs
Really that look at 216hrs isn’t far from becoming good in the following time. If that ridge northwest of AK would retrograde toward the pole and force the PV south along with a stronger low near the Aleutians, it could become a really good look.
 

Nomanslandva

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What makes me skeptical of this is how snow happy the gefs was with the current system on the long/medium range, and slowly caved to the EPS, EPS sorta won with this system we’re dealing with in the southeast right now
EURO and EPS both had snow for this current system as well. I honestly can't remember who had it last but all globals had it inside of 240. What's really sad it there in no snow within 500 miles on the EURO at the end of the run. Not even Snowshoe WV. Prime climo and poop.

1577132169594.png
 

ForsythSnow

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EURO and EPS both had snow for this current system as well. I honestly can't remember who had it last but all globals had it inside of 240. What's really sad it there in no snow within 500 miles on the EURO at the end of the run. Not even Snowshoe WV. Prime climo and poop.

View attachment 28873
Flip to the control and flip to the 3rd, then look. There's only snow in the mountains but still there's at least something.
 

Myfrotho704_

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EURO and EPS both had snow for this current system as well. I honestly can't remember who had it last but all globals had it inside of 240. What's really sad it there in no snow within 500 miles on the EURO at the end of the run. Not even Snowshoe WV. Prime climo and poop.

View attachment 28873
Reason why I said that was because the gefs had a small but non negligible snow mean in the mountains/foothills/western piedmont and still had it while everything else was mostly showing all rain, it was on a island for about 4 runs
 

Nomanslandva

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Reason why I said that was because the gefs had a small but non negligible snow mean in the mountains/foothills/western piedmont and still had it while everything else was mostly showing all rain, it was on a island for about 4 runs
Yea, I was getting hopeful when the EPS had about 40% of members with something close but quit looking when it lost it.
 

mrdaddyman

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That’s quite a snow storm in Florida out of all places.


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If it wasn't obvious how bad this model is before, then this just proves it. Gives northern Florida more snow than I've had in the last 4 years combined, LOL. This model is a total embarrassment to the weather community.
 

pcbjr

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I would absolutely love to see a snowstorm slam FL and the GA coast even if it meant everyone else missed out. Phil and Larry deserve it.
You are far too kind ... but frankly, I'd rather see one from Dallas to just a good bit tad south of Ocala (just to make sure) all the way to Roanoke Rapids ... for everyone ... but ... and I can't speak for Larry ... but ... I'll take whatever God gifts me, this winter , and next, and the ones after that ... (and Larry likely would agree with me on that one) ... ;)
 

Nick_boynton_

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GEFS still supports something funny happening around the New Years .. hopefully we can squeeze something out there if the stars align
 

GaWx

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That's just weird to look at you don't see that very often. I like it.
Yeah, even this kind of thing (a modeled deep SE/coastal snowstorm) isn't seen too often. Usually no more than a couple of times a winter at most even on the drunk GFS. But to see it modeled blizzardlike like this with this very strong low winding up? You can go years in between something like this just being modeled just once.

How often has something like this actually occurred (deep SE/coastal near blizzard) including N FL? It would be a once a multidecadal type storm or even rarer than that. It does kind of look like a more wound up version of 1989. Looking at history for windy, blizzardlike storms with several inch+ accumulations way down in the deep SE/coast including N FL, 12/1989, 2/1899, and 1/1800 are the ones that first come to mind. The great 1/1922 and 2/1914 ZR/IP storms were NOT this wound up (unless I'm remembering the maps wrong) and they didn't quite reach into JAX/GNV. 2/1973 did give JAX a little bit but it wasn't this wound up.

Edit: 1/2018 wasn't this wound up and only barely gave JAX/GNV a little ZR I think.

Edited for correction: 2/1914 and 1/1922 were NOT this wound up per my memory of looking at old maps
 
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