The GEFS looks a bit interesting for the system the op has been throwing darts at
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
SnowNiner
Member
Now that we have the Atlantic seemingly on our side next week, what do we need to root for to get the pacific right? Flip the red and blue and get them to swap? MJO in in phase 2 heading for the COD. Doesn't seem like that's fighting against us. How do we get the Aleutian low back to pop a west coast ridge?
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That still seems seasonal to warm, unless I'm missing something. I do like the blocking signature showing up, which I'm guessing is what you are also liking here.
Nonsense, if it were showing a snow bomb it would be a weenie post cause it would end up in MO. Haha
Gotta get ahead of these things to trap em.
Yeah it’s not the week 2 pattern itself it’s the week 3 and after I am hoping for.
It was strong nino and that winter was end to end cold and snowy for the east...for the most part.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
On the other hand if you get something like 15-16 then you end up with nothing or very little.
If you notice though those dates correspond with what was the only sustained stretch of above to well above temperatures that whole winter and the blocking that was set up during it lead to a great 5-6 weeks after fairly consistent threats and most of us cashed in at least once if not 2 or 3 times during that stretch.
Per model consensus, there's no sustained cold in sight for the SE US like we had in November. We're likely looking at near to slightly warmer than average over the next 15 days averaged out. The best shot at sustained cold anomalies is in the N Plains like usual of late. That is La Nina-like.
Better than + 10 for the month
Unless someone prefers it mild when dry like Brick and some others..
It’s amazing watching the Euro systematically slaughter the FV3. Slowly but surely it’s trending farther southward and more separation with the second s/w in the 17-18th time frame. It’s also caving H5 wise with the high level blocking.
Thanks, and good point. I was at a stoplight and just saw a dearth of pretty blue colors over my backyard.
What is with this fake news +PNA tendency of the GEFS, which is especially evident on the 18Z? We know it is likely way overdone based on countless bad verifications. Don't fall for this BS. Go with the EPS if you're smart. SMH
Moving the discussions about 330 hr individual ensemble members to the Whamby thread.
They are in pretty good agreement except GEFS has the pac low further SW. Lets see who is more right over the next few day’s. I’m not sure the GEFS is totally off it’s rocker here.
But yeah, if I had money it would be on the EPS.
Move that Pac low slightly SW and get that blocking a touch stronger, and oh man. A Rain Cold guarantee won't be far behind!
Personally I like the EPS look better. At least it would buckle the PAC jet a little.
Golf7575
Member
It still looks like we got a ways to go for a more exciting pattern. The ao and nao trending negative and it's still not good enough. What we need? I really hope we don't chase unicorns all winter.
ATLwxfan
Member
I simply don’t understand the panic in December. It usually does not snow in December for most of us. What happens in December stays in December.
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