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Pattern The Great December Dump

Oh lawd he comin
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Lol gfs loves to show a crippling storm one run. Then start backing off by the next run


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SnowNiner said:
The Polar Vortex in Maine would probably be helpful to our winter storm chances. lol.

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That big vortex sitting over Atlantic Canada is exactly what you want to see around here to score a big time Miller B winter storm. The only thing separating this weeks setup from glory and/or a devastating ice storm with a high that “locks in” is that feature right there. The fact that it’s showing up on the ensembles too and given that we have the primary lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex sitting in northern Canada, waiting to phase with a s/w in the polar jet, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big trough show up there in the extended.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
So far this “winter” is already doing better outside CAD areas of NC, sure no snow in southern MS/AL/GA/SC or even NC but some areas that whiffed last year are finally seeing something
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I would include central and most of north GA and SC in the no snow zone.


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Jessy89 said:
Lol gfs loves to show a crippling storm one run. Then start backing off by the next run


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I think anything beyond hour 200 has almost zero predictive value for us outside of following trends. The earth pretty much turns flat and storms fall off the edge into the abyss.


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Next week is interesting, squish that little bit of ridging in the SE more and you may see some wintry precip in NC at the start, especially with a 50/50 low more SE along with that shortwave digging more, or get more transient southeast ridging like the GFS shows and end up getting severe weather, GEFS leans more on the severe weather side, but note that is MAX spc not mean, mean is 0-2 in Mississippi at that time 34202356-34F0-46DD-87B5-0333D13BF3B3.pngEC557DE4-C7F2-493D-8C10-566335FCB529.pngD8F32C92-7E4D-4A97-9770-07831430A3C1.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
So far this “winter” is already doing better outside CAD areas of NC, sure no snow in southern MS/AL/GA/SC or even NC but some areas that whiffed last year are finally seeing something
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The prime timeframe for areas down this way are January and February, December is just a bonus, I actually prefer December storms but they’re rare here in Alabama.
 
RollTide18 said:
The prime timeframe for areas down this way are January and February, December is just a bonus, I actually prefer December storms but they’re rare here in Alabama.
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I don't care much for winter storms after Mid February. By then the sun angle will melt the snow within a day or two. I want to see snow on the ground at least a week.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Our positive (+) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has waned significantly, and thus I expect the Indian Ocean standing wave to progressively lose its strangehold on the global tropics going forward. This means we should starting encountering patterns in January & February that are more receptive to cold/snow & -NAOs as the secondary area of anomalous uplift in the West Pacific becomes relatively more influential.
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This looks like plotting my daily excitement about winter

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