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Pattern The Great December Dump

73 right now at RDU, mean December maximum is 72 so unusually warm now for a typical December month, and much above average for a typical December day. Meanwhile, wedge keeping Greenville sc and Atlanta cool. It hit 81 in Laurinburg NC today, so parts of the state broke 80! 77 in Greenville NC right now. 79 in Fayetteville as well! If wedge was a bit weaker could have been a good deal warmer in Raleigh.

I enjoy big warmups followed by sharp cooldowns. I wish it would produce some severe weather for us!

I see 77 right now just south of Raleigh in Harnett county, wonder what sd and rain cold are reporting?
 
Interesting FB post by Glenn Burns today...
I was with the great folks from our Atlanta National Weather Service this morning talking about upcoming winter. Although the Climate Prediction Center is saying WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS this winter, most don't agree. I am one of them. I am going cold and wet...and I see the chance of several snows. We are not in an El Nino or La Nina pattern. We are in a neutral pattern. We've seen lots of snow in the neutral pattern. The Blizzard of '93 was in a neutral pattern!
 
It has dropped 20°since my early morning run! Excited that Burnsie is on board too. A rarity when the usual naysayers are all in.


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The temperature fluctuation of the past 24 hours has been fun to watch. We didn't rise above 50F until midnight last night and hit 64.6F this morning around 9, and have since fallen almost 20 degrees back to 45.9F.

It looks like places like Augusta and Columbia are in 75-80F warmth today.

NWS just posted a special weather statement:

"...FLURRIES MAY MIX WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA... FLURRIES COULD MIX WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING A FEW FLURRIES WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN ROME AND THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF ATLANTA. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. "

A little surprised to see this as insignificant as it is.
 
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Seeing a cascade of cyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic storm track coupled w/ a parade of 50-50 lows & having the tropospheric polar vortex in your backyard over Northern Canada is making the weenie side of me very happy in the longer term.

If you want a beefy -NAO & threats for coastal cyclones, this how you get them

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Webberweather53 said:
Seeing a cascade of cyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic storm track coupled w/ a parade of 50-50 lows & having the tropospheric polar vortex in your backyard over Northern Canada is making the weenie side of me very happy in the longer term.

If you want a beefy -NAO & threats for coastal cyclones, this how you get them

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Click to expand...
Seems mild, though, just looking at height anoms. I guess with confluence to the NE, you'll have surface highs to contend with, feeding in cooler air. But the evolution of this looks like it may force a +PNA, which would lower heights to the east.
 
Rain Cold said:
Seems mild, though, just looking at height anoms. I guess with confluence to the NE, you'll have surface highs to contend with, feeding in cooler air. But the evolution of this looks like it may force a +PNA, which would lower heights to the east.
Click to expand...

I think it’s mostly because the Euro is having big trouble forecasting the PNA.
 

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