Pattern The Great December Dump

[GeorgiaGirl]

Got to wait a day or two.


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Not really. You can do some extrapolation. The storm starts to develop near what the end of the run would be. I'll be kind of interested in what the 500 mb maps show.

This looks like something in which you'll need to pay close attention to the first storm though. First one bombs and creates a major 50/50 low. That's what helps cause the massive CAD storm since it doesn't look like we really have a trough.

 

[GaWx]

Take with grain since GEFS, but 12Z GEFS is coldest of last few runs for SE and much of the country for 12/17+. More importantly, the model consensus has gotten significantly colder since yesterday. It is all about trends, folks. Actually, the sharp reversal of the warmer trends that occurred over the weekend,

 

[wxdaniel]

Not really. You can do some extrapolation. The storm starts to develop near what the end of the run would be. I'll be kind of interested in what the 500 mb maps show.

This looks like something in which you'll need to pay close attention to the first storm though. First one bombs and creates a major 50/50 low. That's what helps cause the massive CAD storm since it doesn't look like we really have a trough.

I haven’t looked at anything since Sunday. Thanks GeorgiaGirl I will start watching. Was getting boring the past two days.


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[Thor]

 

[accu35]

And this action starts at hour 222 in texas, Not that far out.

 

[Brick Tamland]

And this action starts at hour 222 in texas, Not that far out.

Wow, almost the whole country is covered.

 

[Arcc]

Thanks! You bailed Brick out. Going to go out on a limb and say with that upper air look, we have about a 1:30 chance of a widespread winter storm.

Gonna go with 0% myself. Everyone needs to hug the Euro not the FV3.

 

[ForsythSnow]

The GEFS looks like it's all over the place. There's a few members that bring some snow into N GA and TN around 108, but not too many. Next time frame is around 186 or so with a small handful showing something close. Maybe 1 or 2 around when the OP is showing this fantasy storm.

 

[Arcc]

Take with grain since GEFS, but 12Z GEFS is coldest of last few runs for SE and much of the country for 12/17+. More importantly, the model consensus has gotten significantly colder since yesterday. It is all about trends, folks. Actually, the sharp reversal of the warmer trends that occurred over the weekend,

I think part of the problem is the ensembles are so different on timing they are skewing warm and cold periods over a week than with the progressive pattern changing every day or so with systems constantly rolling in.

 

[Jeremy Camp]

View attachment 27687

I just wanted to be the first to come on here and say it was a honor and privelege knowing you all and as we await our eventually doom... it was the best of times ;\~

Lights Out.

 

[accu35]

I'll take anything from snow/sleet/ice and freezing rain any day of the year, but that's just me. I know some people on here are calling this gfs ice/snow map garbage and it may be comical but Webb has been talking about this properly placed cyclonic that could help with a-NAO. We are way over due for a major ice/snowstorm for us southerns.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The GEFS looks like it's all over the place. There's a few members that bring some snow into N GA and TN around 108, but not too many. Next time frame is around 186 or so with a small handful showing something close. Maybe 1 or 2 around when the OP is showing this fantasy storm.

Yeah that 186-240 timeframe isn’t that bad, nice -NAO, that big low to the SE of Greenland is helping to keep it/pump that -NAO in a way

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The FV3 is on crack. I wouldn’t watch it much this winter

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Trend colder is nice is all that I’m seeing.’Need to get this big Friday rain/mix out of the way for models to focus on Christmas week threat. That way more reliable maps will be shown with a 95% reduction across the board.

 

[wxdaniel]

The FV3 is on crack. I wouldn’t watch it much this winter

I can’t believe we’re still calling it the FV3


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[GaStorm]

Even with the cold bias for the models sooner or later the fantasy stuff will become reality and many will score if blocking becomes established.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Can’t really blame the model with how active the pattern is before we get to that time period. If we were in a drought and no storms until that fantasy storm it could actually be right as modeled. But unfortunately too much going on with these heavy rain soakers leading up to it obscuring the model data IMO.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

12z gfs however was a severe setup, lol

 

[wxdaniel]

Need to watch the Euro and see if it similar in the H5 with good blocking. The uLL and s/w data needs to be watched in the end of the euro.


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[accu35]

Gefs members FWIW, has this major ice storm coming in sooner vrs the OP. Good trends for sure