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Pattern The Great December Dump

KyloG said:
One good news is PNA ridge keeps fighting. Hoping as we get into January it’s an easier fight.

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That Aleutian low will not budge which is great for us going into mid-late December.

Another trend to like, the 17th storm was a big cutter a day ago. I like the trend of more suppression this winter so far.
 
Thor said:
Not our storm but a pretty good sized event showing up on the EURO north of us the past few runs. Couldn't hurt for helping get some cold further south.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
things have been improving on the euro, 50/50 low has been trending south and far stronger, big cold vortex has trended south in north Canada, western ridge is getting taller, get more confluence with a slightly stronger high and we’re in business, also like how that energy has dug more and more View attachment 27669
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Arcc said:
I’m liking the 17th threat for you guys in the Carolinas. That Euro trend is great.
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Baby steps. We're headed in the right direction. Things are looking more positive than not for some winter storms to come this way soon. Just have to be patient and let things run its course and set things up for it to happen.
 
It is the GFS. So, take with a grain, of course. Around 12/19-20, 12Z is some 35-40F colder in the Midwest down to N TX vs just 2 runs ago!! Insane change!

Edit: major winter storm @Brent in TX e to AL 12/20-1 and moving east.
 
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I’m all in on the Chicago winter storm next Tuesday
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Brick Tamland said:
Baby steps. We're headed in the right direction. Things are looking more positive than not for some winter storms to come this way soon. Just have to be patient and let things run its course and set things up for it to happen.
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Like I said, baby steps.

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What a massive flip, even at fantasy land, I really hope this is the start to the model adjusting back to a great pattern the next couple of weeks.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS is 40 F colder in parts of the SE US on the afternoon of 12/21 vs prior runs!! Major NC/SC/N and C GA ZR 12/21-2! Major IP and SN in much of W and N NC and major IP N SC!
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Speak of the devil...on the day I bring up 2/12/14, that wacky fantasy land storm puts several under hours of ice...

Now that certainly would be a storm for several states though, for real.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, it's what the model is showing now. If there is potential, then it should be okay to show and discuss here.
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Can you post the 500 mb NHem height map at that time? Would be helpful to see what the pattern supports.
 
It really all depends on the tablesetter first Storm on the 17th. Need to be tracking that one now to see how it progresses for points northgfs_mslpa_nhem_48.png
 
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