Ilovesnow28
Member
On my frustration
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Supposed to be in the upper 50s tonight but its been 46 for the last 8 hours. That wedge is holding in well.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Howtocreateawest-based-NAO.png.
A properly placed cyclonic wave break like this one near Atlantic Canada next week often leads to -NAOs.
A properly placed cyclonic wave break like this one near Atlantic Canada next week often leads to -NAOs.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,404
- Reaction score
- 9,864
951? Dang
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like this December is going to be roughly par for the course (as expected) for a December in the 2010s. Hard to believe 2C above average in December is the "new normal" in the last decade or so.
This map below takes us thru Dec 17th.
This map below takes us thru Dec 17th.
no extended 60s or 70s, yet still above avg. Strange times. It at least still feels cool.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Our positive (+) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has waned significantly, and thus I expect the Indian Ocean standing wave to progressively lose its strangehold on the global tropics going forward. This means we should starting encountering patterns in January & February that are more receptive to cold/snow & -NAOs as the secondary area of anomalous uplift in the West Pacific becomes relatively more influential.
accu35
Member
- Joined
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Webb, you think the properly placed cyclonic wave could bring us a -NAO in time for Christmas? I've notice gfs/gefs has been showing a nice cold blast that week.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes, I think there will be at least a brief period of -NAO next week following this cyclonic wave breaker over Atlantic Canada, its persistence is highly dependent on continued synoptic-scale wave breaking in the North Atlantic storm track that isn't predictable more than a week or so in advance. In a general sense, As stated in an earlier comment, I certainly think we're moving in a direction that's going to be more favorable to -NAO later in the winter (Jan-Feb) as we lose the +IOD.
what's IOD? I know what an IUD is.. and I never want her to lose that puppy..
accu35
Member
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So +IOD is Indian Ocean Dipole? Also known as Indian Nino
Very heavy rain per 0z Euro.
Thor
Member
Not our storm but a pretty good sized event showing up on the EURO north of us the past few runs. Couldn't hurt for helping get some cold further south.
things have been improving on the euro, 50/50 low has been trending south and far stronger, big cold vortex has trended south in north Canada, western ridge is getting taller, get more confluence with a slightly stronger high and we’re in business, also like how that energy has dug more and more
The EPS actually had a huge increase with this system. Nice look for CAD areas. Though I think member 45 skewed the mean a bit.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That trough over Atlantic Canada is in the ideal spot if u want a CAD event here and is a good way to lock in the CAD high. The problem this time is the cold push & corresponding parent surface high appear to be weaker than what we're seeing this week and I'm not sure if the s/w over the midwest will dig far enough south. The operational Euro looked better than its ensemble suite.
SnowNiner
Member
And a nice 50/50 low in a nice spot, with ridging at the pole. Hint of -NAO showing up. Just need the trend to continue and I think that's workable. Especially come January if that hangs tight.
I’m liking the 17th threat for you guys in the Carolinas. That Euro trend is great.