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Pattern The Great December Dump

Please put CMC and RGEM sleet and freezing rain totals in banter. They are beyond trash. I can’t tell you how hard it is to achieve 0.25” ice in this setup in particular and in past events.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Please put CMC and RGEM sleet and freezing rain totals in banter. They are beyond trash. I can’t tell you how hard it is to achieve 0.25” ice in this setup in particular and in past events.
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These maps are not banter and part of the normal discussion of this setup. You are not a moderator or an administrator. One more outburst like this and you can go create your own weatherboard because you will be banned from this one...again...
 
Hell would have to freeze over for Charlotte to see 1-2” of freezing rain. You can’t even take a 90% reduction and be close to reality the output is so wack. Take it from someone in the heart of CAD, even with temps in the 20’s is just plain difficult to reach 0.25” warning criteria many times and maybe moreso if sleet cuts into totals.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Please put CMC and RGEM sleet and freezing rain totals in banter. They are beyond trash. I can’t tell you how hard it is to achieve 0.25” ice in this setup in particular and in past events.
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Actually in past events we’ve had weaker high pressures in obscure places that have led to a strong in situ cad that set up for at least the foothills that gave widespread .25 amounts in those regions which many didn’t think would happen. Here we have the same sort of issue but a stronger high pressure .. I would think similar outcomes would occur
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Hell would have to freeze over for Charlotte to see 1-2” of freezing rain. You can’t even take a 90% reduction and be close to reality the output is so wack. Take it from someone in the heart of CAD, even with temps in the 20’s is just plain difficult to reach 0.25” warning criteria many times and maybe moreso if sleet cuts into totals.
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With temps in the 20s it’s hard to get .25 accrual??? I think ur mighty wrong
 
This could be a situation where places like GSP and little S of here, get the frozen precip with perfect timing in the early morning and temps warm up in N.C. before precipitation gets there?
 
Sleet City USA said:
God almighty CMC
zr_acc.us_ma.png
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With the amount of recip falling, you would get a lot of runoff (with temps in the upper 20s). But, even cutting that in half it would still be historic. Earlier, I was thinking the foothills would be the focal area. But if the Canadian is correct, I would say the Winston-Salem to Danville zone could see the highest amounts.
 
Tarheel1 said:
This could be a situation where places like GSP and little S of here, get the frozen precip with perfect timing in the early morning and temps warm up in N.C. before precipitation gets there?
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But with better wetbulbing further north-east because of lower dew points and dry cold air at the surface..I think northern NC is better positioned. Not to mention the warm air also invades GSP first.
 
FallsLake said:
With the amount of recip falling, you would get a lot of runoff (with temps in the upper 20s). But, even cutting that in half it would still be historic. Earlier, I was thinking the foothills would be the focal area. But if the Canadian is correct, I would say the Winston-Salem to Danville zone could see the highest amounts.
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I think it’s a bit of a cmc bias from what I’ve seen in recent winters. I’ve noticed Hickory will see the max accrual while Charlotte to Greensboro is mostly rain despite what is modeled. If the euro was on board it never has this weird eastward bias and we could see where the heaviest is likely.
 
I actually think the CMC has a good idea of where and what kind of precip there will be (minus the insane amounts ofc), I might be totally wrong but even with the strong CAD high moving out quickly I seriously doubt that central and northern VA will be ZR. Light/Moderate ZR in the piedmont, southern foothills, parts of upstate with IP in the northern foothills and ofc into Virginia.
 
Finally some legit chances the NWS will start following this in later forecast packages. Expect some changes if you live in places like Mount Airy NC. As the event nears chances go up and a wider area may be expanded along the blue ridge. All Winter Storm Watches usually follow a >40% probability odd from the WPC. Confidence is still low namely because the euro and lack of short term guidance to see where temps will support the best icing. 2E5564C4-BF9C-4C83-A44E-582E7CA0A4C4.jpeg
 
CMC being that much earlier is important even up here. Euro has no ice up here because there is no precip here before temps warm after mid day Friday. But getting stuff in here overnight Thursday could be bad. We dipped right to 32 this AM when the rain came in.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I’m liking the trends! Haven’t had a good ice storm in a long time.....
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Unfortunately for us, I truly believe the only trend we have is securing a spot to see freezing rain/sleet. There just isn’t enough cold air and some other factors that will prevent this from being something memorable. Something is better than nothing tho and I assume that’s why we are all here.
 
Kat did mention this morning that the NW piedmont of NC could see some sleet pellets before the main rain came in. I guess early onset type of thing.
 
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