Pattern The Great December Dump

[Webberweather53]

CMC being that much earlier is important even up here. Euro has no ice up here because there is no precip here before temps warm after mid day Friday. But getting stuff in here overnight Thursday could be bad. We dipped right to 32 this AM when the rain came in.

Isentropic upglide over the CAD dome is usually hard for the globals to capture (& typically underdone on the models), don’t be shocked to see greater coverage of freezing drizzle or light ZR and perhaps some IP vs what’s currently being shown near the onset of this event.

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[packfan98]

New thread started for the Mixed precip potential events:

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/potential-dec-13-14-ice-threat.659/

I've moved the last few posts from the December thread to the new thread.

 

[Storm5]

CAn someone please post the eps members for Chicago Sunday -Tuesday


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[Nomanslandva]

CAn someone please post the eps members for Chicago Sunday -Tuesday


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You can play around on this site and get what you need.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019120912/virginia/significant-weather/20191213-1500z.html

 

[Arcc]

Yep watch the 17-18th on the Euro and looks like the NAO is about to go way negative.

 

[Arcc]

CAn someone please post the eps members for Chicago Sunday -Tuesday


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Please stay up there until Wednesday....

It will be a slam dunk here.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Watch out MAJOR December south east ridge Impacting the south east mid late month .. this will most likely put us significantly above average for December ...... yeah .... NOT ..

 

[Ilovesnow28]

Looks like there won't be anything for us deep south folks (along and south of I-20) to track winter storm wise for the foreseeable future on to January

 

[ATLwxfan]

Looks like there won't be anything for us deep south folks (along and south of I-20) to track winter storm wise for the foreseeable future on to January

Not that we should realistically expect otherwise but yes, nothing on the horizon. A decent amount of ridging too on GFS. Not a blowtorch but decidedly above normal.


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[ajr]

Not that we should realistically expect otherwise but yes, nothing on the horizon. A decent amount of ridging too on GFS. Not a blowtorch but decidedly above normal.


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Can’t help but feel a little deja vu from last year waiting for good patterns to develop after early seasonal excitement. I don’t see the usual folks talking about the broader elements Masiello et al were getting interested in a few weeks ago.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The Weeklies came in pretty good. Nice jump on the Mean. I has 48 members with snow IMBY. We'll see how that goes.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

hmmm, shift that western ridge farther west, make it taller like the one we have now, shift that PV lobe East into central Canada and shift that confluence down a bit SW and you got something interesting

 

[Arcc]

hmmm, shift that western ridge farther west, make it taller like the one we have now, shift that PV lobe East into central Canada and shift that confluence down a bit SE and you got something interesting View attachment 27625View attachment 27626

Following the Euro. Excellent.

 

[Arcc]

Looks like there won't be anything for us deep south folks (along and south of I-20) to track winter storm wise for the foreseeable future on to January

Based on?

 

[Arcc]

EPS backs the OP, -NAO building by the mid-long range. Let’s see if we can keep the western ridge and get a decent -NAO.

 

[Arcc]

You know I just realized that TT is off on their 2m anomaly temps. A temp of 59 degrees in AL is not 2-4C above normal.

 

[Ollie Williams]

You know I just realized that TT is off on their 2m anomaly temps. A temp of 59 degrees in AL is not 2-4C above normal.

Keep in mind that is December 21st.


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[NoSnowATL]

You know I just realized that TT is off on their 2m anomaly temps. A temp of 59 degrees in AL is not 2-4C above normal.

People see red and they think torch. I hate the color code. Very misleading.


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[Arcc]

Keep in mind that is December 21st.


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True didn’t look at that, also didn’t realize the average high then is 54 degrees. I’m too used at looking at monthly averages and not daily.