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Pattern The Great December Dump

accu35 said:
sn10_acc.us_se.png
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Man if only that can expand further south
 
The latest Maxar forecast has warmer than normal dominating the US outside of the upper Midwest through 12/23 and with no end even then in sight. This forecast is much warmer than its forecast from Friday. Break out the shorts, folks, we’re looking golden for our 9th in a row mild December! I hope the warmth isn’t enough to cause me to put the AC back on and go back to walking inside on the treadmill.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Maybe if wave 2 can speed up more things can get interesting?
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Wave 2 has sped up compared to yesterday's run and the trough near Atlantic Canada & south of Greenland is slower to leave, keeping the CAD high around longer. If we can get the Atlantic Canada trough to dig south more & slow somehow, while also keeping wave 2 at least relevant, we might have something here.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh120_trend.gif

The timing between wave 2 and the trough south of Greenland is pretty close to ideal although the trough is a tad fast and further north of the composite Miller B pattern. We want that trough to dig further south to give us a stronger cold push & lock in the CAD high longer while keeping our southern stream wave in roughly the same spot. All of this is within the realm of possibility given its 5 days out but certainly not probable or likely at this juncture.

Regardless, this still beats torching.
North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png
 
How the MJO doing? Warm phase I’m guessing?
Phase 6 is that right? Looks to be moving in the right direction for January to me.

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GaWx said:
The latest Maxar forecast has warmer than normal dominating the US outside of the upper Midwest through 12/23 and with no end even then in sight. This forecast is much warmer than its forecast from Friday. Break out the shorts, folks, we’re looking golden for our 9th in a row mild December! I hope the warmth isn’t enough to cause me to put the AC back on and go back to walking inside on the treadmill.
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Does BAMWX work for them ? They see to flip as much


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NoSnowATL said:
How the MJO doing? Warm phase I’m guessing?
Phase 6 is that right? Looks to be moving in the right direction for January to me.

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Best guess is favorable left side phases toward New Year but just an educated guess. The MJO has been overstaying it’s welcome in phases 4 and 5 for 10+ years. Also, from what I’ve learned we need to hope the -GLAAM finally ends for better chances to finally break the warm winter streak/SER domination and this will be no easy task since there’s a pretty strong positive correlation between Dec -GLAAM and Jan -GLAAM.
 
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Storm5 said:
Does BAMWX work for them ? They see to flip as much
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They flipped in their 15 day forecast largely because the models, especially the GEFS, got much warmer. To their credit though, they weren’t cold in the SE but instead near normal because they have been fading the GEFS.
Their DJF forecast as a whole for the SE US has never been the least bit cold as it had actually been slightly warmer than normal. This is unlike the recent shift colder by JB. One thing you can count on with them is no hype.
 
Webberweather53 said:
ENSO's apparent footprint on the frequency of Miller A cyclone events is evident here, note how the Miller A & El Nino winter storm composites are virtually identical:

Conclusion: El Nino increases the frequency of Miller A (coastal cyclone) events in NC & this heightened frequency of Miller As likely explains the enhanced seasonal gradient between Greensboro/Winston-Salem & Raleigh-Durham that's also observed in El Nino winters.

View attachment 27484
View attachment 27490

In La Ninas, there's also a negative NAO in the composite, but it's displaced much further east & equatorward of both the NINO & Miller A composite.

View attachment 27491

Worth clarifying that both of these above 500mb anomaly composites above include every winter storm that's occurred in NC since 1948 during El Nino or La Nina, with both composites including nearly 100 events. Therefore, the conclusions attained from them are much more likely to be significant & meaningful.

This post is definitely something to put in your back pocket.
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Is there public access to this data? I'd like to try to see composites for storms in my area.
 
GaWx said:
The latest Maxar forecast has warmer than normal dominating the US outside of the upper Midwest through 12/23 and with no end even then in sight. This forecast is much warmer than its forecast from Friday. Break out the shorts, folks, we’re looking golden for our 9th in a row mild December! I hope the warmth isn’t enough to cause me to put the AC back on and go back to walking inside on the treadmill.
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We see how the torchy December that was showing up turned out.
 
Tarheel1 said:
We see how the torchy December that was showing up turned out.
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Don't jinx it. We really don't know what happens after the 20th or so. Unless I'm looking at the wrong thing the teles look atrocious. +NAO (what's new) +AO, neutral EPO, neutral to -PNA, MJO in warm phases. Can't see how we stay even average. We know how warm it can get around here in December and 7 days of torch can wipeout 3 weeks of average temps easily.
 
This time last year Jim Cantore was LIVE in Boone, NC preparing for the big one. Now, soaking-heavy cold rains await us.
 
GaWx said:
I find it quite interesting that despite the mild in much of the country, the upper Midwest remains quite cold for yet another winter! This is very La Ninaish. Could this somehow be related to GW?
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How often does a raging positive NAO in December flip to negative in Jan and Feb? My guess is not much.
 
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