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Pattern The Great December Dump

Snowless & Grumpy said:
How often does a raging positive NAO in December flip to negative in Jan and Feb? My guess is not much.
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- I found 13 raging +NAOs for Dec.: 1951, 65, 74, 79, 82, 93, 94, 99, 2004, 06, 11, 14, 15
- For Jan: 2 of 13 went to -NAO (66 and 80), including one (66) to strong -NAO. 2 went to neutral (07 and 16). 9 of 13 stayed +NAO with 5 of those raging + (83, 94, 05, 12, 15)
- For Feb: 5 of 13 went to -NAO (52, 66, 75, 83, 07) including raging -NAO in 66. 2 went neutral (80, 05). 6 of 13 were +NAO with 4 of those raging +NAO (95, 00, 15, 16).

**Edit: After I posted this, I see @KyloG posted about the abrupt shift from strong +NAO Dec of 1986 to raging -NAO Jan 87 and strong -NAO in Feb. 87. I didn't include Dec 86 because the +NAO was not quite in the "raging category" for me, but it is close enough to add to the list.

So, including Kylo's 1986, only 5 of the 14 stayed +NAO in both Jan and Feb: 1994, 1995, 2000, 2012, and 2015.

2014-5 had a raging +NAO all three of D, J, and F.
 
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GSP isn’t ruling out snow Thursday into Friday for upstate sc. I don’t think it will happen but they added the chance in there forecast


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I just analyzed how much warmer are the GEFS and EPS at 12Z today vs 0Z on Fri in terms of US weighted heating degree days:

12Z GEFS has an insane 46 fewer HDD than 0Z Fri run while even the much more accurate 12Z EPS still has 13 fewer HDD. The main thing this shows is how continued awful has been the GEFS and that future runs should continue to be taken with a giant grain should they tease us with colder, which they'll do at some point. Even after this huge warmer GEFS change, it is still about 1 HDD/day colder than the 12Z EPS nationally after being 3 HDD/day colder as of 0Z on Fri for the 2 week forecast.


Therefore, Maxar almost had to go much warmer even though it had already been favoring EPS over GEFS. Maxar warmed the country about 1.3 HDD/day for the 15 day forecast vs Fri AM. During that period, GEFS warmed an almost unreal 3 HDD/day! EPS warmed a much more modest ~1 HDD/day because it wasn't cold like the GEFS to begin with.
 
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In solar news:
Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 08 Dec 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2019 total: 261 days (76%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 08 Dec 2019
 
The Gfs actually has the high pressure in a good position. Just it basically tears the system apart. Not enough moisture but a different look. It’s still dead though.


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Really looking like most of TN sees a legitimate Winter storm. Originally, it looked minor and still may turn out that way but those snow totals are starting to look real juiced up! We obviously don’t have hardly any TN peeps in here cause there is no excitement. Haha
 
Robert West said:
Really looking like most of TN sees a legitimate Winter storm. Originally, it looked minor and still may turn out that way but those snow totals are starting to look real juiced up! We obviously don’t have hardly any TN peeps in here cause there is no excitement. Haha
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What about north Alabama?
 
Rick said:
Does anyone have latest nam please
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AlZ9SUN.png
 
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