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Pattern The Great December Dump

Why the ICON showed this ? Well that energy actually managed to make a effort and try to go negative tilt, and the energy was a bit stronger overall, it trying to achieve negative tilt matters in this setup, also it was a tad slower BF814DE3-EC59-4973-AEB0-AC9F843FA6FA.gif
 
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Theres the low
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Why the ICON showed this ? Well that energy actually managed to make a effort and try to go negative tilt, and the energy was a bit stronger overall, it trying to achieve negative tilt matters in this setup, also it was a tad slower View attachment 27474
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Kinda of funny, but I've seen the icon lead the way on cases like these and other models follow
 
Gfs still changing at 24 hours, reason why the last run looked like that is Becuase that other energy behind this one we’re interested in showed up wayyy to quick 4C49B78C-EC77-44C2-9926-C7DE5F5D453C.gif
 
Icon should be colder considering the location of that High. Cad should be present through nc upstate sc in ne Georgia.


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accu35 said:
I can see a dusting there. Little north west from them, gonna see more.
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Haha shouldn’t have quoted your tweet... only quoted yours cause you were showing the Cfs outlook as a real outlook and it’s forecasting skills are trash .. if you look and read comments before and some even after u they are starting to try and cancel January .. a lot with the doom bird guy but he’s always giving out wack sayings
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Haha shouldn’t have quoted your tweet... only quoted yours cause you were showing the Cfs outlook as a real outlook and it’s forecasting skills are trash .. if you look and read comments before and some even after u they are starting to try and cancel January .. a lot with the doom bird guy but he’s always giving out wack sayings
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Wrong guy here
 
Storm5 said:
Two years ago today it was pouring snow . Ended up with over 4 inches
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This one showed that rates will overcome. Everything was marginal but 26 hours of snow left 12” and an embarrassed school district. 48 hours without power is also too much and made it all much less enjoyable.
 
The Euro isn’t even close. You have the ICON now and the 6z CMC. But it hard to imagine the Euro swinging to an ICON solution as below.

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GEFS is still predicting an NAO of ~+1.75 for 12/12-13, the period of the wintry threat. That’s a 98 percentile high NAO. The highest NAO for any of the 28 major winter storms at ATL since 1950 is only +1.00. The -NAO is often mentioned as crucial for a legit winter storm threat (even though I’ve said that is deceptive based on the good number of big storms that have occurred with neutral to sometimes even +NAO).

Why is the +NAO hardly being mentioned here as regards this threat?

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GaWx said:
GEFS is still predicting an NAO of ~+1.75 for 12/12-13, the period of the wintry threat. That’s a 98 percentile high NAO. The highest NAO for any of the 28 major winter storms at ATL since 1950 is only +1.00. The -NAO is often mentioned as crucial for a legit winter storm threat (even though I’ve said that is deceptive based on the good number of big storms that have occurred with neutral to sometimes even +NAO).

Why is the +NAO hardly being mentioned here as regards this threat?

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Because we’ve been looking for a miller B with this pattern, you really don’t need a -NAO with a miller B/CAD pattern, composite that Webb made proves that, -NAOs are more crucial to Miller A setups however, but with a miller B your depending more on North Pacific blocking and some type of vortex or a 50/50 in SE Canada with a ridge axis extending from the SE into the central US
 
GaWx said:
GEFS is still predicting an NAO of ~+1.75 for 12/12-13, the period of the wintry threat. That’s a 98 percentile high NAO. The highest NAO for any of the 28 major winter storms at ATL since 1950 is only +1.00. The -NAO is often mentioned as crucial for a legit winter storm threat (even though I’ve said that is deceptive based on the good number of big storms that have occurred with neutral to sometimes even +NAO).

Why is the +NAO hardly being mentioned here as regards this threat?

View attachment 27480
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That's so annoying how it skyrocketed right on December 1st. And it'll probably stay that way until March. I think that's one of the main reasons the I-20 corridor has been constantly disappointed since 2011 and that wont change unless that tele changes. As far as the CAD regions we've had to deal with Miller Bs and slop events but not quite as dependent on the NAO.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Because we’ve been looking for a miller B with this pattern, you really don’t need a -NAO with a miller B/CAD pattern, composite that Webb made proves that, -NAOs are more crucial to Miller A setups however, but with a miller B your depending more on North Pacific blocking and some type of vortex or a 50/50 in SE Canada with a ridge axis extending from the SE into the central US
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Yes there’s basically no correlation between the NAO and Miller B events here, individual cases certainly have them but the collection of events since the mid 20th century do not. Coastal cyclones and anafrontal events are a different story. What really matters is getting a North Pacific block & SE Canada or Lakes vortex that digs down to about 50N or so and becomes negatively tilted off of Newfoundland and then see a southern stream shortwave come out of the southern Rockies at the same time this vortex anomaly is entering into the Atlantic. This setup has the southern stream wave, north pac block, & and a SE Canada vortex but it’s further north of the composite, suggesting a weaker cold push and more progressive pattern overall that makes it harder to lock in the CAD high. There still could be some sleet and ZR in CAD favored areas of NC & VA but a minor event at best, freezing drizzle, or nothing at all seems likely
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Because we’ve been looking for a miller B with this pattern, you really don’t need a -NAO with a miller B/CAD pattern, composite that Webb made proves that, -NAOs are more crucial to Miller A setups however, but with a miller B your depending more on North Pacific blocking and some type of vortex or a 50/50 in SE Canada with a ridge axis extending from the SE into the central US
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But in general for cold prospects for the SE US, a very strong +NAO can’t in itself be good news, right?
 
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