CMC
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Meh, this is the one to watch!
Jessy89
Member
That’s bad luck, were loosing that PV lobe “cold” press, but still the energy is interacting more with that main trough, that’s sickening, at least it’s digging a bit more but seperation is key
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The strength of the surface is a combination of several things aside from just the intensity of the low-level air mass. Hydrostatically, yes a colder air mass >>> more sinking >>> stronger surface high but upper-level confluence also leads to a stronger surface high & more significant upper-level confluence doesn't guarantee a colder low-level air mass.
CAD requires a stout along barrier pressure gradient force between the surface high & corresponding lower pressures to the south, and while a stronger high is also proportional to this PGF, it's not guaranteed that this PGF will be stronger & thus it limits the amount of information you can infer about cold air advection, which matters a lot in a case like this. We also need the high to have time to settle in before the overrunning wave approaches and this large-scale pattern argues for more transience than the Miller B composite I've shown here before.
Gfs stayed with the similar idea ... and it’s ensembles actually match it way more individual wintry runs than 18z for sure
Hp is in a better place for establishing CADCmc has GA starting off with some ice
Totally different storm. CAD erodes quickly.
accu35
Member
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Anafrontal looking better for places like TN/AL. I can see cold air being colder further south, so i could see parts of central Bama getting something out of it as well. I think the second low late next week needs watched as well if the timing is right.
ATLwxfan
Member
Quite a GFS run for rain lovers!
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these fronts almost always realize a bit warmer than GFS numbers.. hopefully it goes the other way this time. Southern Tn valley just isn't getting enough of the arctic push. Only pieces of that main cold lobe in Central/Northern Canada are coming down. CHA might sneak an inch mid week at best, and only if the precip comes at night. Meanwhile, here's the ICON;
whatalife
Moderator
Not a big fan of the 11-16 on the GEFS 00z run. Warmth and more warmth....
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WxBlue
Meteorologist
I'd love to see ECMWF getting a bit more onboard with wintry threat before I get excited about some ice/snow outside mountains.
accu35
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I dont pay much attention to the icons temps honestly. It's always warmer than other models period. I think the Icon will correct with temps as we get closer. I can see a good inch or so in north Bama as the gfs/cmc/nam/eps/gefs and the mean shows
The good news is... it's only mid Dec.. lol Lots more time to hit the mother lode, fantasy or otherwise.
yeah, it's under snowing for sure... no snow in the high Southern Apps? Something is slightly wonky about this model.
Even with its cold bias?! Color me shocked
The bad thing is, for many of us we received our only snow threat in December the last two years.. there’s an outside shot many on the board get completely skunked this year