I notice some differences so far on the 0z GFS. The S/W is digging down slightly further vs the 18z run, and this run is colder so far. This could turn out to be a great run!
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
TN anafrontal action , still looking good
only issue is this trend towards more interaction, Stronger Energy more South right on the Texas/Mexico border may make up for it but that has to make you uncomfortable if your hoping for IP/ZR and hoping the GFS wins 
I think the 00z GFS barely separates. It will probably be gone at 06z.
No bueno, if you continue this trend CAD may not even make it in time for the precip, and that shortwave is getting uncomfortably close to that big vortex, one more shift like that and it may ruin are system 
Yeah Arkansas and Tennessee will be the snow winners this week
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Damn SE ridge flexing! Gonna be a runner or cutter by tomorrow! But, it’s only December!?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I doubt that. More likely it’s a slider to our south versus a cutter at this point.
Cold Rain!?
Say goodbye to this thing by Tommorow ?? energy is gonna be nonexistent by tommorow, gonna be flatter than a pancake tommorow 
Cold rain jackpot! We toss!?
What’s crushing it? Certainly not the cold press?
Our luck is what’s crushing it
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m going to say this much. With a 1043HP sitting over NY/PA, temps will not be the problem in the traditional CAD areas N/W of 85. We all know how underdone CAD is at this lead time.
Jessy89
Member
That gfs I’m not sure why the high pressure is so slow. It just menders along and never catches up to the system. This one we can probably put the fork in it. It’s dead
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Get a good look at this, probably be a while before you see frozen/freezing precip on the map around here!
Something beyond my knowledge related to potential vorticity would be my guess
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