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Wintry Sunday 12/18-Tues 12/20 ZR threat

Euro is gonna be epic tonight. Feel it so prepare for Glory. First winter storm warning of the year for Monday night, all ice. Wining!
 
NCSNOW link said:
Euro is gonna be epic tonight. Feel it so prepare for Glory. First winter storm warning of the year for Monday night, all ice. Wining!
NAM looks glorious, but it's the NAM!?
 
00z NAM
73e3172ca08cd99d612ec1666bf2f298.jpg


00z 4k NAM
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The counties bordering middle TN are under a Winter Wx Advisory for tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to see if the Nashville office follows suit and issue some advisories of their own later today.
 
That was an impressive NAM run. The 12KM and 4KM might actually hint at a little sleet from Raleigh northward Monday morning toward mid afternoon.
 
SD link said:
That was an impressive NAM run. The 12KM and 4KM might actually hint at a little sleet from Raleigh northward Monday morning toward mid afternoon.
The NAM did really horrible with today's icing, IMO!
Kept showing those pockets of ZR and accumulations in NEGa up through the upstate with.01-.07 accums, and was way off
 
The HRRR is now coming into play for middle TN and it is looking interesting. I would be shocked if the Nashville NWS office doesn't issue either a Winter Wx Advisory or a Freezing Rain Advisory for, at least, parts of their CWA.
 
SD link said:
GFS is very close

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Can't look at it right now, close with temps or with precip?  I know GFS was pushing precip out with no development westward like the Euro and NAM

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2479#msg2479 date=1481990092]
GFS is very close

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Can't look at it right now, close with temps or with precip?  I know GFS was pushing precip out with no development westward like the Euro and NAM

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Backs precip up to I95 similar to the 0z Euro. Temps would probably be below freezing if it was raining

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SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2485#msg2485 date=1481991841]
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2479#msg2479 date=1481990092]
GFS is very close

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Can't look at it right now, close with temps or with precip?  I know GFS was pushing precip out with no development westward like the Euro and NAM

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Backs precip up to I95 similar to the 0z Euro. Temps would probably be below freezing if it was raining

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
NW trend...

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2486#msg2486 date=1481992052]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2485#msg2485 date=1481991841]
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2479#msg2479 date=1481990092]
GFS is very close

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Can't look at it right now, close with temps or with precip?  I know GFS was pushing precip out with no development westward like the Euro and NAM

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Backs precip up to I95 similar to the 0z Euro. Temps would probably be below freezing if it was raining

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
NW trend...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Fear it, until you need it!
 
Of course the Euro doesn't have anything here now while the GFS starts trending NW with the precip. NAM looks okay but it's the NAM this far out, so who knows.  Still have no idea what will really happen yet with the back and forth and flip flopping. We saw overnight it doesn't take much ice to cause problems on the roads, though.
 
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