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Wintry Sunday 12/18-Tues 12/20 ZR threat

Webberweather53 link said:
ECMWF is still very close to being a huge deal in central NC. I definitely don't feel comfortable at all seeing a wide swath of an inch to an inch and a half of precip with temperatures hovering around 31-34F. It's definitely trended a tad warmer the past day or so, but it's still way too close to call. Should be interesting to see how it handles this first CAD event on Fri Night into Sat
ecmwf_precip_24_raleigh_19-1024x768.png


ecmwf_t2m_raleigh_19-1024x768.png

With the lower dew points forecast by the Euro, how much wet bulbing effect is taken into account on those 31-34 degree temps?
 
If the qpf on the map webber posted falls at the depicted surface tempertures then that would be a big winter storm for northern part of piedmont NC. My county is over half inch liquid with temps 30-31. Does this map reflect the previous 6 hour qpf, cold chasing moisture? If not this the 2cnd run in a row the euro op has done this.
 
Supershow link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=54.msg2281#msg2281 date=1481896639]
ECMWF is still very close to being a huge deal in central NC. I definitely don't feel comfortable at all seeing a wide swath of an inch to an inch and a half of precip with temperatures hovering around 31-34F. It's definitely trended a tad warmer the past day or so, but it's still way too close to call. Should be interesting to see how it handles this first CAD event on Fri Night into Sat
ecmwf_precip_24_raleigh_19-1024x768.png


ecmwf_t2m_raleigh_19-1024x768.png

With the lower dew points forecast by the Euro, how much wet bulbing effect is taken into account on those 31-34 degree temps?
[/quote]


These temps are dangerously close, if it ends up busting a few degrees lower everywhere from CLT/GSO points east would be in trouble.
 
Even if just half of that is frozen around here it would be trouble.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Even if just half of that is frozen around here it would be trouble.

Yeah you're preaching to the choir here. Definitely going to be a bit nerve racking to watch perhaps even until the very last minute. Even a 1-2F change in the forecast is the difference between 0.5"+ of ice or very cold rain. Way too much uncertainty to write this off right now (as Allan Huffman tried to do this morning).
 
Webberweather53 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=54.msg2300#msg2300 date=1481901711]
Even if just half of that is frozen around here it would be trouble.

Yeah you're preaching to the choir here. Definitely going to be a bit nerve racking to watch perhaps even until the very last minute. Even a 1-2F change in the forecast is the difference between 0.5"+ of ice or very cold rain. Way too much uncertainty to write this off right now (as Allan Huffman tried to do this morning).
[/quote]

What did he say about it?
 
This is really going to get the attn it deserves if the euro stays course at 12z today. Love stalled fronts on our coast in the dead of winter with waves runining up them. Like that HP Monday heading to Tuesday, beleive it was 1038 on euro 500mb map I glanced at on plymouth or unisys. Have to go back and check.

Raleigh:

The surface cold front is expected to stall
near the coast early to mid next week as the front becomes parallel
with the mid/upper level flow. Multiples waves of low pressure are
expected to track along the front early next week, before a northern
stream s/w finally push the front further to the east and south by
Tuesday afternoon. Until then expect periods of mainly cold rain,
best chances east/southeast. If moisture spreads back into the
northwest Piedmont we could see a brief period of wintry weather
with cold high pressure extending into the area from the north and
northwest. However, with low confidence with regard to the timing
and strength of such waves will keep everything liquid for now.
Temps are expected to be below normal early next week, with highs on
Monday in the 30s to around 40, a
 
NCSNOW link said:
This is really going to get the attn it deserves if the euro stays course at 12z today. Love stalled fronts on our coast in the dead of winter with waves runining up them. Like that HP Monday heading to Tuesday, beleive it was 1038 on euro 500mb map I glanced at on plymouth or unisys. Have to go back and check.

Raleigh:

The surface cold front is expected to stall
near the coast early to mid next week as the front becomes parallel
with the mid/upper level flow. Multiples waves of low pressure are
expected to track along the front early next week, before a northern
stream s/w finally push the front further to the east and south by
Tuesday afternoon. Until then expect periods of mainly cold rain,
best chances east/southeast. If moisture spreads back into the
northwest Piedmont we could see a brief period of wintry weather
with cold high pressure extending into the area from the north and
northwest. However, with low confidence with regard to the timing
and strength of such waves will keep everything liquid for now.
Temps are expected to be below normal early next week, with highs on
Monday in the 30s to around 40, a

Yea the high actually got up to 1044mb in New England before the precip arrived... NAM is getting within range & it's looks similar overall to the Euro with temps hovering around freezing from the Triangle area northward as a formidable batch of precipitation begins moving in from the south & west. This may end up being a nail biter for sure

namconus_T2m_seus_53.png


namconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.png
 
Correct me if I'm wrong (and before anybody tries it this is not wishcasting) but seems the "old" Euro used to have a little warm bias especially with shallow cold air not sure if that's still the case or not.  Definitely bears watching
 
GFS is actually colder than the Euro, but doesn't have the precip. If the GFS is right on temps, and the Euro right with the precip, it really will be a mess. Could be a mess just based on the Euro with it being right at freezing with the temps.
 
Yes it did. Hard to argue against the old EE rule as well. I know its Nam out to 84 hr but if would go out another 12 hours no doubt alot of central NC would wetbulb below 32 most likely into the upper 20's in triad region with that 1044 HP funneling in the NE wind at the surface and 25-30dbz on radar locking in the surface cold air.

By the way, not sure how it is where ya'll are at. But if you want to see first hand what it looks and feels like before a big snow storm just walk outside. Got pretty low ceiling, cloud deck and temps mid 20's at the lunchtime hour with stiff little breeze. fools gold!
 
Pretty confident in the 1044 HP being parked where it is come Mon night/Tueesday and a front stalled on the coast. Its a matter of the impulses riding up it and how much lift they have with them thats the unanswered question that has to be answered over the wekend. I'm throwing my chips on this one now if Euro holds serve at 12z today. Inside 120 hrs it still the king for a reason.
 
NCSNOW link said:
Pretty confident in the 1044 HP being parked where it is come Mon night/Tueesday and a front stalled on the coast. Its a matter of the impulses riding up it and how much lift they have with them thats the unanswered question that has to be answered over the wekend. I'm throwing my chips on this one now if Euro holds serve at 12z today. Inside 120 hrs it still the king for a reason.

Can't argue with you on this one bit....  that stout HP spells trouble if Euro is even close with precip, a little NW trend and it's lights out? 
 
Euro still very close to major ice storm for N Cen/NW Piedmont of NC Monday night into Tuesday in fact precip shield has shifted NW.... got to really keep an eye on this one

HP might be a smidge weaker but in a great spot for CAD, snow pack up north, good n/ne winds..... this one may have legs
 
Yep 84 hrs out.Has .5 all frozen for my county. Have no clue what soundings show up above me, but surface is great shape with HP parked in perfect location.
 
Looks like we are too warm aloft to support anything but rain/freezing rain Monday/Tuesday. Thought we might have a chance to end as IP/SN but it doesn't look likely
 
SD link said:
Looks like we are too warm aloft to support anything but rain/freezing rain Monday/Tuesday. Thought we might have a chance to end as IP/SN but it doesn't look likely

I'll take an appetizer now. Anything we can get now to make things more interesting than plain cold is fine with me.
 
life in TN, MiSs, Al, FL , La and NV no winter weather watches or advisories 
d9bf45b3de69eb3186e420e9ff14bd24.jpg


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