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Wintry Sunday 12/18-Tues 12/20 ZR threat

Most of that is not snow if at all into the deeper South.  850s hot.
 
Storm5 link said:
18z 4k NAM FTW
a1d90daed3bf76cc3f14597e4e6e6bf1.jpg


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Click to expand...
wow
 
metwannabe link said:
That's what getting NAM'd looks like ^^^^^ Lol
Click to expand...
the nws already dismissed it saying the NAM has a know bias of being to slow to clear precip out by 4 hours!!!!! and thus the above result lol

4 hours!!!

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Storm5 link said:
18z 4k NAM FTW
a1d90daed3bf76cc3f14597e4e6e6bf1.jpg


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I'll take one or two or three of whatever the 4km nam is drinking!
 
850's right before/as the event happens:

nam4km_T850_seus_38.png
 
Starburst link said:
Most of that is not snow if at all into the deeper South.  850s hot.
Click to expand...
Oh no doubt , they are not even close . if anything it would be freezing rain

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=54.msg2362#msg2362 date=1481923394]
Most of that is not snow if at all into the deeper South.  850s hot.
Click to expand...
Oh no doubt , they are not even close . if anything it would be freezing rain

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[/quote]
Call me crazy but I've always enjoyed ice events.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=54.msg2362#msg2362 date=1481923394]
Most of that is not snow if at all into the deeper South.  850s hot.
Click to expand...
Oh no doubt , they are not even close . if anything it would be freezing rain

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[/quote]

Yeah, it's even reading the ZR tonight/tomorrow from the sim radar or whatever as snow in SC/NC/GA.
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=54.msg2368#msg2368 date=1481923579]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=54.msg2362#msg2362 date=1481923394]
Most of that is not snow if at all into the deeper South.  850s hot.
Click to expand...
Oh no doubt , they are not even close . if anything it would be freezing rain

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[/quote]
Call me crazy but I've always enjoyed ice events.
[/quote]
I agree as long as it's like every 6 years or so

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2361#msg2361 date=1481923372]
That's what getting NAM'd looks like ^^^^^ Lol
Click to expand...
the nws already dismissed it saying the NAM has a know bias of being to slow to clear precip out by 4 hours!!!!! and thus the above result lol

4 hours!!!

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Day late and a dollar short.... welcome to my world
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=54.msg2368#msg2368 date=1481923579]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=54.msg2362#msg2362 date=1481923394]
Most of that is not snow if at all into the deeper South.  850s hot.
Click to expand...
Oh no doubt , they are not even close . if anything it would be freezing rain

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Yeah, it's even reading the ZR tonight/tomorrow from the sim radar or whatever as snow in SC/NC/GA.
[/quote]
sounds about right lol. maybe one day we can have model that accurately gets precip right in regards to the upper temps

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I would like to start seeing the short range models soon, on this event
 
Storm5 link said:
my favorite short range model the RGEM is most likely correct
de76c94f74a3a1ca8efe27aa07698dbf.jpg


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thats already wrong anyways, its not even showing the ice event for Carolinas lol
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2361#msg2361 date=1481923372]
That's what getting NAM'd looks like ^^^^^ Lol
Click to expand...
the nws already dismissed it saying the NAM has a know bias of being to slow to clear precip out by 4 hours!!!!! and thus the above result lol

4 hours!!!

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]They dismissed it last year too when it nailed an event
 
accu35 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=54.msg2380#msg2380 date=1481925478]
my favorite short range model the RGEM is most likely correct
de76c94f74a3a1ca8efe27aa07698dbf.jpg


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Click to expand...
thats already wrong anyways, its not even showing the ice event for Carolinas lol
[/quote]
because it does not count ice as snow....

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Stormlover link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=54.msg2365#msg2365 date=1481923483]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2361#msg2361 date=1481923372]
That's what getting NAM'd looks like ^^^^^ Lol
Click to expand...
the nws already dismissed it saying the NAM has a know bias of being to slow to clear precip out by 4 hours!!!!! and thus the above result lol

4 hours!!!

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]They dismissed it last year too when it nailed an event
[/quote]
yes sir they did . the NAM spanked them last year

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Stormlover link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=54.msg2365#msg2365 date=1481923483]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2361#msg2361 date=1481923372]
That's what getting NAM'd looks like ^^^^^ Lol
Click to expand...
the nws already dismissed it saying the NAM has a know bias of being to slow to clear precip out by 4 hours!!!!! and thus the above result lol

4 hours!!!

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]They dismissed it last year too when it nailed an event
[/quote]Your right and J P Dice went with the NAM on that event
 
Euro is gonna be epic tonight. Feel it so prepare for Glory. First winter storm warning of the year for Monday night, all ice. Wining!
 
NCSNOW link said:
Euro is gonna be epic tonight. Feel it so prepare for Glory. First winter storm warning of the year for Monday night, all ice. Wining!
Click to expand...
NAM looks glorious, but it's the NAM!?
 
The counties bordering middle TN are under a Winter Wx Advisory for tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to see if the Nashville office follows suit and issue some advisories of their own later today.
 
Euro has backed off on the ice threat but the NAM (long range I know) is warning criteria in Cen NC....
 
That was an impressive NAM run. The 12KM and 4KM might actually hint at a little sleet from Raleigh northward Monday morning toward mid afternoon.
 
SD link said:
That was an impressive NAM run. The 12KM and 4KM might actually hint at a little sleet from Raleigh northward Monday morning toward mid afternoon.
Click to expand...
The NAM did really horrible with today's icing, IMO!
Kept showing those pockets of ZR and accumulations in NEGa up through the upstate with.01-.07 accums, and was way off
 
The HRRR is now coming into play for middle TN and it is looking interesting. I would be shocked if the Nashville NWS office doesn't issue either a Winter Wx Advisory or a Freezing Rain Advisory for, at least, parts of their CWA.
 
SD link said:
GFS is very close

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Can't look at it right now, close with temps or with precip?  I know GFS was pushing precip out with no development westward like the Euro and NAM

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2479#msg2479 date=1481990092]
GFS is very close

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Can't look at it right now, close with temps or with precip?  I know GFS was pushing precip out with no development westward like the Euro and NAM

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[/quote]
Backs precip up to I95 similar to the 0z Euro. Temps would probably be below freezing if it was raining

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SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2485#msg2485 date=1481991841]
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2479#msg2479 date=1481990092]
GFS is very close

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Can't look at it right now, close with temps or with precip?  I know GFS was pushing precip out with no development westward like the Euro and NAM

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[/quote]
Backs precip up to I95 similar to the 0z Euro. Temps would probably be below freezing if it was raining

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[/quote]
NW trend...

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2486#msg2486 date=1481992052]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2485#msg2485 date=1481991841]
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2479#msg2479 date=1481990092]
GFS is very close

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Click to expand...
Can't look at it right now, close with temps or with precip?  I know GFS was pushing precip out with no development westward like the Euro and NAM

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[/quote]
Backs precip up to I95 similar to the 0z Euro. Temps would probably be below freezing if it was raining

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[/quote]
NW trend...

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[/quote]
Fear it, until you need it!
 
Of course the Euro doesn't have anything here now while the GFS starts trending NW with the precip. NAM looks okay but it's the NAM this far out, so who knows.  Still have no idea what will really happen yet with the back and forth and flip flopping. We saw overnight it doesn't take much ice to cause problems on the roads, though.
 
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