Wintry Sunday 12/18-Tues 12/20 ZR threat

[VegasEagle]

00z cmc

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Hmmm.... That is interesting for sure.  What are the odds tonight of this happening?

 

[WilkesboroDude]

I haven't seen this mentioned but I think for a lot of areas a flash freeze/black ice threat is possible west of the Apps to maybe the NC high country. Too warm east of the mountains and foothills. This might be the more widespread issue esp. Nashville TN westward. 

 

[SD]

12z NAM has a change to freezing rain for much of Tn and north Al, even a change to snow possibly in Tn

 

[Supershow]

12z NAM has a change to freezing rain for much of Tn and north Al, even a change to snow possibly in Tn

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[SD]

GFS says meh what change over.

 

[Supershow]

Granted I did not see the 6z GFS for this time frame but the 12z GFS says move along, nothing at all to see

 

[Storm5]

cmc is more bullish . gfs is the slowest with the cold push out of the big three

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[Supershow]

cmc is more bullish . gfs is the slowest with the cold push out of the big three

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So we have the CMC and Euro faster with the cold and a little longer w the precip vs GFS...Let's see what Euro 12z says...

 

[Snowfan]

The CMC shows freezing rain in North Georgia Sunday Night.

 

[Supershow]

Euro about 30 miles slower on front from 0Z - a tick warmer at the surface -  hour 84

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[accu35]

Wondering if the CMC could be right about this, it's been very consented and bullish for the several runs

 

[Brick Tamland]

Euro looks like it could be .50 here of precip and mostly frozen to me.

 

[accu35]

18 gfs looks better for this period, someone post image please

 

[Supershow]

18 gfs looks better for this period, someone post image please

Same time period 18z GFS

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[SD]

Euro looks like it could be .50 here of precip and mostly frozen to me.

Euro was certainly close looks like it hovers RDU around 31/32 during the height of that heavy precip.

 

[accu35]

[quote author=accu35 link=topic=54.msg2223#msg2223 date=1481838806]
18 gfs looks better for this period, someone post image please

Same time period 18z GFS

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[/quote] I meant Sunday through Tuesday event

 

[Supershow]

[quote author=Supershow link=topic=54.msg2227#msg2227 date=1481841457]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=54.msg2223#msg2223 date=1481838806]
18 gfs looks better for this period, someone post image please

Same time period 18z GFS

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[/quote] I meant Sunday through Tuesday event
[/quote]

Here is total freezing rain accumulation thru 0Z Wednesday - nothing remarkable

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[tellicowx]

18z GEFS members...looks like an almost 50/50 split for this Sunday across middle TN, N. AL

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[Supershow]

18z GEFS members...looks like an almost 50/50 split for this Sunday across middle TN, N. AL

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15 for the win!


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[Webberweather53]

ECMWF is still very close to being a huge deal in central NC. I definitely don't feel comfortable at all seeing a wide swath of an inch to an inch and a half of precip with temperatures hovering around 31-34F. It's definitely trended a tad warmer the past day or so, but it's still way too close to call. Should be interesting to see how it handles this first CAD event on Fri Night into Sat