Wintry Sunday 12/18-Tues 12/20 ZR threat

[WeatherLC]

To tell you the truth... this one has my attention more so than the Saturday event. This one has the cold air coming in vs. cold air retreating. Still plenty of time to watch it but it has more potential. I could see this one going from rain to freezing rain to sleet. It will all come down to how much cold air can be pushed into the damming regions and of course timing. Plenty of QPF. Some one is going to get a decent event.

Is it going to be more in-situ or hybrid in regards to the damming?

 

[tellicowx]

6z GFS puts more of AL in the ice threat for Sun

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[tellicowx]

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[MiddleTNWx]

This threat is looking legit for middle TN on Sunday. I wish it was snow we were talking about instead of freezing rain, but that doesn't look to be the case.

 

[WilkesboroDude]

I'm going to have to disagree on this setup it heavily favors west of the Apps vs east of the Apps for those thinking there will be something to track in the Piedmont of the Carolinas. Still a little wiggle room for a ripple impulse to hit the cold air but can't pin that down this far out east of the mountains.

 

[tellicowx]

Lol...12z GFS says what wintry precip Sunday except maybe a couple flurries

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[Supershow]

Once again the changes on the GFS from run to run are way out there...practically nothing for this period now per 12z

 

[Storm5]

cmc is very agressive on Sunday especially for tennessee

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[SD]

CMC is much more aggressive with some light freezing rain across central NC than the GFS

 

[Storm5]

12z euro has light wintry precip in western tennessee northern mississippi and parts of northern alabama

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[Webberweather53]

12z ECMWF very close to being either a nuisance very cold rain or an epic ice storm for portions of south-central NC. As much as an inch of precip falls in the south-central coastal plain from Goldsboro-Smithfield-Fayetteville-Laurinburg with surface temperatures hovering around 31-34F. Yikes

 

[Supershow]

Close call for several area Sunday afternoon - how fast can the Arctic air catch the precipitation

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[Brick Tamland]

Seems like it is always a close call here lately between rain or something frozen. I know that's how it usually is here, but the last few years we've been on the rain side more often than I remember us being in the past.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Close call for several area Sunday afternoon - how fast can the Arctic air catch the precipitation

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The difference between this and what the 2m temps on the 12z GFS are for Atlanta is nothing short of incredible. There's nearly a 30 degree spread between the two models. Euro looks like it's around 37 here while the GFS has us at 66 during the same timeframe. LOL!

Canadian is a balanced medium between the two with a temperature around 47.

 

[Supershow]

[quote author=Supershow link=topic=54.msg2053#msg2053 date=1481742662]
Close call for several area Sunday afternoon - how fast can the Arctic air catch the precipitation

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The difference between this and what the 2m temps on the 12z GFS are for Atlanta is nothing short of incredible. There's nearly a 30 degree spread between the two models. Euro looks like it's around 37 here while the GFS has us at 66 during the same timeframe. LOL!

Canadian is a balanced medium between the two with a temperature around 47.
[/quote]
The Euro is basically 6 hours faster with the frontal passage - The GFS has 67 for Bham while Euro is 30 at 6am

 

[Weatherlover92]

[quote author=Weatherlover92 link=topic=54.msg2058#msg2058 date=1481745914]
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=54.msg2053#msg2053 date=1481742662]
Close call for several area Sunday afternoon - how fast can the Arctic air catch the precipitation
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The difference between this and what the 2m temps on the 12z GFS are for Atlanta is nothing short of incredible. There's nearly a 30 degree spread between the two models. Euro looks like it's around 37 here while the GFS has us at 66 during the same timeframe. LOL!

Canadian is a balanced medium between the two with a temperature around 47.

[/quote]
The Euro is basically 6 hours faster with the frontal passage - The GFS has 67 for Bham while Euro is 30 at 6am
[/quote]

I kinda figured as such. It'll be interesting to see if the GFS gradually comes in faster with future runs since it will make a significant difference in what happens around here. I'm not holding my breath though, I can only remember maybe a couple of occasions where rain changing to frozen precip because of an arctic front actually worked out for us.

 

[Webberweather53]

Overall, definitely more precip w/ this run of the 12z EPS, the ECMWF operational & ECMWF ENS control were in the middle of the suite of ensemble solutions... Interesting to finally see a decent cluster of members take this low further NW out of the gulf & towards the mid-Atlantic states, such a scenario would still favor some wintry precip here... EPS control was apocalyptic for RDU w/ 0.7-0.9" of precip falling in < 6 HR, all of it freezing rain w/ temps ~30F. It's probably way too extreme but definitely worth noting such solutions have been becoming more frequent in the Euro ENS of late

 

[Supershow]

[quote author=Supershow link=topic=54.msg2060#msg2060 date=1481746765]
[quote author=Weatherlover92 link=topic=54.msg2058#msg2058 date=1481745914]
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=54.msg2053#msg2053 date=1481742662]
Close call for several area Sunday afternoon - how fast can the Arctic air catch the precipitation
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The difference between this and what the 2m temps on the 12z GFS are for Atlanta is nothing short of incredible. There's nearly a 30 degree spread between the two models. Euro looks like it's around 37 here while the GFS has us at 66 during the same timeframe. LOL!

Canadian is a balanced medium between the two with a temperature around 47.

[/quote]
The Euro is basically 6 hours faster with the frontal passage - The GFS has 67 for Bham while Euro is 30 at 6am
[/quote]

I kinda figured as such. It'll be interesting to see if the GFS gradually comes in faster with future runs since it will make a significant difference in what happens around here. I'm not holding my breath though, I can only remember maybe a couple of occasions where rain changing to frozen precip because of an arctic front actually worked out for us.
[/quote]

18z NAM only runs to midnight Sunday but clearly in line with the slower GFS vs Euro

 

[MiddleTNWx]

I am just happy we are finally tracking a winter threat. Winter is, by far, my most favorite season. Here is to, hopefully, the first Winter Wx Advisory of the season comes with this event! 

 

[Storm5]

00z cmc

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