VegasEagle
Member
Hmmm.... That is interesting for sure. What are the odds tonight of this happening?Storm5 link said:00z cmc
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Wintry Sunday 12/18-Tues 12/20 ZR threat
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
WilkesboroDude
Member
I haven't seen this mentioned but I think for a lot of areas a flash freeze/black ice threat is possible west of the Apps to maybe the NC high country. Too warm east of the mountains and foothills. This might be the more widespread issue esp. Nashville TN westward.
12z NAM has a change to freezing rain for much of Tn and north Al, even a change to snow possibly in Tn
GFS says meh what change over.
Storm5
Member
cmc is more bullish . gfs is the slowest with the cold push out of the big three
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So we have the CMC and Euro faster with the cold and a little longer w the precip vs GFS...Let's see what Euro 12z says...Storm5 link said:cmc is more bullish . gfs is the slowest with the cold push out of the big three
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The CMC shows freezing rain in North Georgia Sunday Night.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Euro looks like it could be .50 here of precip and mostly frozen to me.
Brick Tamland link said:
Euro was certainly close looks like it hovers RDU around 31/32 during the height of that heavy precip.
accu35 link said:
Same time period 18z GFS
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[/quote] I meant Sunday through Tuesday event
[/quote]
Here is total freezing rain accumulation thru 0Z Wednesday - nothing remarkable
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15 for the win!tellicowx link said:
18z GEFS members...looks like an almost 50/50 split for this Sunday across middle TN, N. AL
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
ECMWF is still very close to being a huge deal in central NC. I definitely don't feel comfortable at all seeing a wide swath of an inch to an inch and a half of precip with temperatures hovering around 31-34F. It's definitely trended a tad warmer the past day or so, but it's still way too close to call. Should be interesting to see how it handles this first CAD event on Fri Night into Sat
Webberweather53 link said:ECMWF is still very close to being a huge deal in central NC. I definitely don't feel comfortable at all seeing a wide swath of an inch to an inch and a half of precip with temperatures hovering around 31-34F. It's definitely trended a tad warmer the past day or so, but it's still way too close to call. Should be interesting to see how it handles this first CAD event on Fri Night into Sat
With the lower dew points forecast by the Euro, how much wet bulbing effect is taken into account on those 31-34 degree temps?
NCSNOW
Member
If the qpf on the map webber posted falls at the depicted surface tempertures then that would be a big winter storm for northern part of piedmont NC. My county is over half inch liquid with temps 30-31. Does this map reflect the previous 6 hour qpf, cold chasing moisture? If not this the 2cnd run in a row the euro op has done this.
SimeonNC
Member
Supershow link said:[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=54.msg2281#msg2281 date=1481896639]
ECMWF is still very close to being a huge deal in central NC. I definitely don't feel comfortable at all seeing a wide swath of an inch to an inch and a half of precip with temperatures hovering around 31-34F. It's definitely trended a tad warmer the past day or so, but it's still way too close to call. Should be interesting to see how it handles this first CAD event on Fri Night into Sat
With the lower dew points forecast by the Euro, how much wet bulbing effect is taken into account on those 31-34 degree temps?
[/quote]
These temps are dangerously close, if it ends up busting a few degrees lower everywhere from CLT/GSO points east would be in trouble.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Even if just half of that is frozen around here it would be trouble.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Brick Tamland link said:
Yeah you're preaching to the choir here. Definitely going to be a bit nerve racking to watch perhaps even until the very last minute. Even a 1-2F change in the forecast is the difference between 0.5"+ of ice or very cold rain. Way too much uncertainty to write this off right now (as Allan Huffman tried to do this morning).
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Webberweather53 link said:
Yeah you're preaching to the choir here. Definitely going to be a bit nerve racking to watch perhaps even until the very last minute. Even a 1-2F change in the forecast is the difference between 0.5"+ of ice or very cold rain. Way too much uncertainty to write this off right now (as Allan Huffman tried to do this morning).
[/quote]
What did he say about it?
NCSNOW
Member
This is really going to get the attn it deserves if the euro stays course at 12z today. Love stalled fronts on our coast in the dead of winter with waves runining up them. Like that HP Monday heading to Tuesday, beleive it was 1038 on euro 500mb map I glanced at on plymouth or unisys. Have to go back and check.
Raleigh:
The surface cold front is expected to stall
near the coast early to mid next week as the front becomes parallel
with the mid/upper level flow. Multiples waves of low pressure are
expected to track along the front early next week, before a northern
stream s/w finally push the front further to the east and south by
Tuesday afternoon. Until then expect periods of mainly cold rain,
best chances east/southeast. If moisture spreads back into the
northwest Piedmont we could see a brief period of wintry weather
with cold high pressure extending into the area from the north and
northwest. However, with low confidence with regard to the timing
and strength of such waves will keep everything liquid for now.
Temps are expected to be below normal early next week, with highs on
Monday in the 30s to around 40, a
Raleigh:
The surface cold front is expected to stall
near the coast early to mid next week as the front becomes parallel
with the mid/upper level flow. Multiples waves of low pressure are
expected to track along the front early next week, before a northern
stream s/w finally push the front further to the east and south by
Tuesday afternoon. Until then expect periods of mainly cold rain,
best chances east/southeast. If moisture spreads back into the
northwest Piedmont we could see a brief period of wintry weather
with cold high pressure extending into the area from the north and
northwest. However, with low confidence with regard to the timing
and strength of such waves will keep everything liquid for now.
Temps are expected to be below normal early next week, with highs on
Monday in the 30s to around 40, a
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NCSNOW link said:
Yea the high actually got up to 1044mb in New England before the precip arrived... NAM is getting within range & it's looks similar overall to the Euro with temps hovering around freezing from the Triangle area northward as a formidable batch of precipitation begins moving in from the south & west. This may end up being a nail biter for sure
Correct me if I'm wrong (and before anybody tries it this is not wishcasting) but seems the "old" Euro used to have a little warm bias especially with shallow cold air not sure if that's still the case or not. Definitely bears watching
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
GFS is actually colder than the Euro, but doesn't have the precip. If the GFS is right on temps, and the Euro right with the precip, it really will be a mess. Could be a mess just based on the Euro with it being right at freezing with the temps.
NCSNOW
Member
Yes it did. Hard to argue against the old EE rule as well. I know its Nam out to 84 hr but if would go out another 12 hours no doubt alot of central NC would wetbulb below 32 most likely into the upper 20's in triad region with that 1044 HP funneling in the NE wind at the surface and 25-30dbz on radar locking in the surface cold air.
By the way, not sure how it is where ya'll are at. But if you want to see first hand what it looks and feels like before a big snow storm just walk outside. Got pretty low ceiling, cloud deck and temps mid 20's at the lunchtime hour with stiff little breeze. fools gold!
By the way, not sure how it is where ya'll are at. But if you want to see first hand what it looks and feels like before a big snow storm just walk outside. Got pretty low ceiling, cloud deck and temps mid 20's at the lunchtime hour with stiff little breeze. fools gold!
NCSNOW
Member
Pretty confident in the 1044 HP being parked where it is come Mon night/Tueesday and a front stalled on the coast. Its a matter of the impulses riding up it and how much lift they have with them thats the unanswered question that has to be answered over the wekend. I'm throwing my chips on this one now if Euro holds serve at 12z today. Inside 120 hrs it still the king for a reason.
NCSNOW link said:
Can't argue with you on this one bit.... that stout HP spells trouble if Euro is even close with precip, a little NW trend and it's lights out?
Euro still very close to major ice storm for N Cen/NW Piedmont of NC Monday night into Tuesday in fact precip shield has shifted NW.... got to really keep an eye on this one
HP might be a smidge weaker but in a great spot for CAD, snow pack up north, good n/ne winds..... this one may have legs
HP might be a smidge weaker but in a great spot for CAD, snow pack up north, good n/ne winds..... this one may have legs
NCSNOW
Member
Yep 84 hrs out.Has .5 all frozen for my county. Have no clue what soundings show up above me, but surface is great shape with HP parked in perfect location.
Looks like we are too warm aloft to support anything but rain/freezing rain Monday/Tuesday. Thought we might have a chance to end as IP/SN but it doesn't look likely
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
SD link said:
I'll take an appetizer now. Anything we can get now to make things more interesting than plain cold is fine with me.
Storm5
Member
18z 4k NAM FTW
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Storm5
Member
life in TN, MiSs, Al, FL , La and NV no winter weather watches or advisories
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That's what getting NAM'd looks like ^^^^^ Lol