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Wintry Sunday 12/18-Tues 12/20 ZR threat

86f031635caac89f49bfe4e6a69bb853.jpg


How's this for dynamics...lol? A Tornado Watch overlaying a Winter Weather Advisory.

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vegaseagle link said:
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=54.msg2512#msg2512 date=1482004013]
First winter weather advisory of the season goes into effect at midnight for my area
Click to expand...
North Alabama addded also.
[/quote]
nice!!! enjoy

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=vegaseagle link=topic=54.msg2513#msg2513 date=1482004128]
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=54.msg2512#msg2512 date=1482004013]
First winter weather advisory of the season goes into effect at midnight for my area
Click to expand...
North Alabama addded also.
[/quote]
nice!!! enjoy

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[/quote] No road trip for you this year? lol
 
18z gfs is a little more agressive with the change to wintry vs previous runs

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vegaseagle link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=54.msg2530#msg2530 date=1482006018]
[quote author=vegaseagle link=topic=54.msg2513#msg2513 date=1482004128]
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=54.msg2512#msg2512 date=1482004013]
First winter weather advisory of the season goes into effect at midnight for my area
Click to expand...
North Alabama addded also.
[/quote]
nice!!! enjoy

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[/quote] No road trip for you this year? lol
[/quote]
not for this little event . but no doubt I'll be up there sometime in the next two months :)

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tellicowx link said:
86f031635caac89f49bfe4e6a69bb853.jpg


How's this for dynamics...lol? A Tornado Watch overlaying a Winter Weather Advisory.

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Click to expand...

Yep I posted about that in one of the other threads as It's a pretty crazy scenario. So is northern middle Tennessee going to see a little more wintery weather then initially forecast?
 
Gusts from 40 to 50 mph as the front passes...Reports of trees, limbs, and some power outages all along the front in TN and AL.

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Surprised no advisory for RAL area maybe even further east. Doesn't favor the foothills in this setup tho. WPC highlights this well in their ice probs.
 
I see NWS has added chance ip/zr to our forecast for tomorrow (Cen NC) and the GFS much colder with precip still around with almost .25 ice and the NAM is determined we will see wintry precip.  Fun times.... 71 today ice tomorrow?

Actually looks like the NAM has backed off which is probably a good thing haha
 
metwannabe link said:
I see NWS has added chance ip/zr to our forecast for tomorrow (Cen NC) and the GFS much colder with precip still around with almost .25 ice and the NAM is determined we will see wintry precip.  Fun times.... 71 today ice tomorrow?

Actually looks like the NAM has backed off which is probably a good thing haha
Click to expand...
I just saw the 6z gfs had warning criteria freezing rain and the 12z nam backed way off. Looks like the euro was too warm for freezing rain. 

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SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2627#msg2627 date=1482071365]
I see NWS has added chance ip/zr to our forecast for tomorrow (Cen NC) and the GFS much colder with precip still around with almost .25 ice and the NAM is determined we will see wintry precip.  Fun times.... 71 today ice tomorrow?

Actually looks like the NAM has backed off which is probably a good thing haha
Click to expand...
I just saw the 6z gfs had warning criteria freezing rain and the 12z nam backed way off. Looks like the euro was too warm for freezing rain. 

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[/quote]
It's amazing how modeling is all over the  place but we've seen precip bend back NW a little further then forecast when a wave develops along a stalling front and with that arctic right there....I like our chances of maybe advisory criteria

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2631#msg2631 date=1482072233]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=54.msg2627#msg2627 date=1482071365]
I see NWS has added chance ip/zr to our forecast for tomorrow (Cen NC) and the GFS much colder with precip still around with almost .25 ice and the NAM is determined we will see wintry precip.  Fun times.... 71 today ice tomorrow?

Actually looks like the NAM has backed off which is probably a good thing haha
Click to expand...
I just saw the 6z gfs had warning criteria freezing rain and the 12z nam backed way off. Looks like the euro was too warm for freezing rain. 

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[/quote]
It's amazing how modeling is all over the  place but we've seen precip bend back NW a little further then forecast when a wave develops along a stalling front and with that arctic right there....I like our chances of maybe advisory criteria

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[/quote]
It's going to be close. If dewpoints fall off into the 20s and we do see constant precip it's going to be hard to stay above freezing with the constant feed of dry air at the surface.

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cyclogent link said:
snowing in Crossville with a visibility of 1.5 miles.  Not bad for a shallow artic air mass.  Currently around 40 here and raining
Click to expand...
I was hoping to see some wintry stuff here, but I think the cold is taking too long to filter off the Plateau

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Radar in Alabama is showing mix bag towards Birmingham area
 
SD link said:
Gfs showing a little zr in NC

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Click to expand...
Maybe some ip too but it is lesser amounts then the 06z.  Still very interesting

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=54.msg2638#msg2638 date=1482076529]
Gfs showing a little zr in NC

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Click to expand...
Maybe some ip too but it is lesser amounts then the 06z.  Still very interesting

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[/quote]


IP looks more likely up your way with 925mb temps getting down to -4c.
 
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