• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Summer Sizzlin Whamby Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s how you get tornadoes in the SE in June, lol
Climo at this time argues for higher instability, which is another thing to add on View attachment 20022View attachment 20023
Click to expand...
Itll probably change some in next runs but that's a deep low and in favorable position for severe weather. Yep climatology at this time of the year is less wind shear and higher cape. But if you bring in a deeper low wind shear increases some.
 
I always thought the Euro was the best long range model lol. Isn't the upgraded/better GFS supposed to come out later this summer?
 
Zander98al said:
I always thought the Euro was the best long range model lol. Isn't the upgraded/better GFS supposed to come out later this summer?
Click to expand...

The FV3 is unfortunately (imo) scheduled to become operational late this month if I'm not mistaken. Whether or not it will end up as a "better" GFS remains to be seen as I didn't at all like what I saw this winter. I think it could end up worse. I know it had an awful cold bias. Hopefully that has been fixed though I have my doubts that it could be that fast. Also, the FV3 seemed quite jumpy from run from run. Interestingly, the old GFS did fantastic with the late May SE heatwave with it even doing better than the Euro, which was too hot.
 
Last edited:
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like eastern NC is gonna win again with another boundary today leading to high MLcape there today allowing strong Tstorms ??‍♂️ Just your average CAPE minimum here in central/western NC
Click to expand...
Yep and they win the powerball. Western NC won’t see nothing but a few warnings in the GSP mountains.
 
Showers are developing in NW Georgia. HRRR wants to throw them my way later this evening. Probably gonna get nothing, but I will take whatever chance I can get for rain.
 
Last edited:
8a82dd36cfca539db38e84bc382b4cb8.jpg

This is so good. This was me last summer!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BufordWX said:
Showers are developing in NW Georgia. HRRR wants to throw them my way later this evening. Probably gonna get nothing, but I will take whatever chance I can get for rain.
Click to expand...
Actually got some rain! That ends a 12 day streak of no rainfall here.

Heaviest rain ended up to my west a little. Still got .03” here though which is better then nothing.

Looks like the next chance of rain here will be Wednesday.

Or is it?A5FFF35A-A44E-4150-94DB-5801897B866C.png
 
Forecasted high is 78 tomorow with full sun. Gonna make a run at 48 to49 for lows in the countryside. Right now watching some storms roll off the mtns, not sure theyll survive.
 
Looks like areas around GSO is gonna score again ? deadass annoying that downslopin winds kill it for us around CLT
 
Zander98al said:
Sure looks to be rainy Wednesday and after.? no more need to water my garden every night.
Click to expand...
You should water deeply once a week, instead of a little bit everyday!
 
BufordWX said:
Looks like the CFS monthly has already nailed temperatures for January 2020. Lol.View attachment 20034
Click to expand...

Based on SE winters since 2000-01, there's a 2 out of 3 chance that one of DJF will have warm anomalies at least this large (say an average of 4+ warmer than normal) and 1 in 6 chance that 2 of DJF will be at least this warm. So, this is a very reasonable forecast for Jan and there's no reason to not believe it has a decent chance even though this is looking out 7 months on a shooty model making it no better than the equivlent of a wild guess. Nevertheless, I'm getting ready for the seemingly ever-present winter hype from the usual suspects like JB, who along with the Euro and other models had one of the worst, if not THE worst, SE winter forecast I've ever seen in 2018-9. JB has had so many opportunities to make a warm forecast since 2000-1 and score a win but he never seems to be able to do so. Blown opportunities due to bias.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Based on SE winters since 2000-01, there's a 2 out of 3 chance that one of DJF will have warm anomalies at least this large (say an average of 4+ warmer than normal) and 1 in 6 chance that 2 of DJF will be at least this warm. So, this is a very reasonable forecast for Jan and there's no reason to not believe it has a decent chance even though this is looking out 7 months on a shooty model making it no better than the equivlent of a wild guess. Nevertheless, I'm getting ready for the seemingly ever-present winter hype from the usual suspects like JB, who along with the Euro and other models had one of the worst, if not THE worst, SE winter forecast I've ever seen in 2018-9. JB has had so many opportunities to make a warm forecast since 2000-1 and score a win but he never seems to be able to do so. Blown opportunities due to bias.
Click to expand...

Yep, JB hits the cold button every time, this is his mind before winter
8DD62744-01D8-4B2D-886F-4F068AC25A9A.jpeg
 
It seems like we get more summer "wet patterns" now then we used to. Seems like there aren't a lot of days with widely spaced, tiny pop-up storms anymore. It is either totally dry or there are multi-day, widespread rain events.

I hate rainy summers. I want hot and dry, with just tiny pop-up storms. Throw in a tropical storm every once in a while.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top