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Misc Stock Market

Storm5 said:
I just don't understand the mentality that out market will just go up regardless of news


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Past 12 years if you loaded up long when Q’s tagged the 100wema you would be crushing it. People know if you buy every large dip it will get rewarded.

Looking at that chart it seems $318 low won’t be hit again. It’s time to buy every dip aggressively.

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Storm5 said:
I just don't understand the mentality that out market will just go up regardless of news


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It's not logical, if you look at historical market function and behavior. But I think a lot of regular traders/market participants fail to take into account several highly impactful things that are at play with markets today that didn't used to be:

1) Passive investing. Broad ETFs that soak up shares.

2) Central Banks. Easy money and liquidity excesses for many years have fueled speculation market ascension.

3) Mechanical trading. Algorithmic trading has become widespread and exacerbates moves in both directions. Creates a huge opportunity for manipulation.

4) Ease of market manipulation. Stoke the algos, move the markets creating a positive feedback loop that fuels investor sentiment and further market increases.

5) Plunge Protection Team. Or whatever you want to call it. Can easily buy illiquid futures at off-hours to activate #4 and turn the tide.

6) Unspoken mandate. The market has become the symbol of economic health. The directive has been to elevate markets at all costs. Frequently using #4 and 5 above.

7) Investor conditioning. This is not new, but against the backdrop of all the others, it creates an extended sense of FOMO, TINA, and that the market will only move up. Excessive speculation and risk-taking remains in place in the face of historically poor fundamentals.

It will end when they (governments) are ready for it to end. That's when #7 will reverse. My guess is that they want to have more control in place first. You've seen some pretty giant steps toward that objective with the Covid situation. They've created a monstrosity of a market and a financial system. Neither can be maintained in perpetuity. You need to have control well in place before you can allow either or both to significantly degrade. This is why you will see more social unrest, pandemic-like issues, and geopolitical events. My advice is, strap in.
 
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A nuke could be launched toward New York and before it got leveled, the S&P would be up 2%.

In all seriousness, I would not be surprised if futures were useless again tonight and early tomorrow morning. They were pretty ugly early Friday morning and about 6 hours after they were as ugly as they were (as I was asleep when they were ugly), I was shocked (it's crazy how similar Friday was to 12/6/21 at least for me, early in both sessions I was a little up in arms about tech lagging and then later the Dow had me pretty surprised).

That's my feel (I think my breaking point would be -2%, -1% would be a normal retrace and it's close to what happened early on Friday) and I'm still probably going to have the Russell 2000 up in another tab because I've become a degen. But I'm more interested in what happens to the ruble. Hopefully the speculation I've seen is true (the ruble may half when currency markets open again), because if it is, it's a big-time blow.
 
Storm5 said:
We Weill open red , all this news seems different but I will 100 percent dump all my pits at open and go long for the face melt


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Futs were down 1.5% Friday pre market and we saw how that closed. Our clown shows of a market rallies on chaos.
 
KyloG said:
Futs were down 1.5% Friday pre market and we saw how that closed. Our clown shows of a market rallies on chaos.
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Totally agree . I expect something like Thursday though not that red . Where it opens red and then rips . Market always seems to do the opposite of what everyone says . So if it's red I'm dumping puts . It's funny watching both bears and bulls give their cases for tomorrow as to what will happen . Listening to both sides and there is at least a 15 percent spread


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