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Misc Stock Market

PCE came in much softer than expected...if SPY/DIA/IWM doesn't have a nice green day today after this then market in big trouble.

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ES bounced hard at the Sept low VWAP which happened to be the 100dema too. I added some SPYU/TQQQ on that this morning in pre-market. I just closed out the TQQQ here $85.20 from $77 and will keep the SPYU working. Still holding the NVDA shares too from $128. Probably my best day in weeks.

I was planning on staying out of the way rest of the year but this huge gap down was too much for me to not buy.



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Another reason I bought the gap down in pre-market was the SPX oscillator was the most oversold it's been in a couple of years. It was this low in spring and then had a 15% rip over the following weeks.

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I don't have any confidence of direction....volume is really high...wide range candles.

But for now...SPY was really oversold, extreme and we got a hard bounce rejected right into the 8/20dema. Monday's are usually green in bearish sequences but we shall see.

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Have NVDA swing still working from mid $128....chart looks amazing. I had intended to close position at $138-$139 but now having second thoughts. I will probably close 1/3 of position before close.

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KyloG said:
This isn't the greatest looking chart...I am not going to do much this week. Got some SPY on, stop set and will let things work.

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Well I am idiot...I should have added at this point this morning. The 10:30am low is always a good spot to buy against...so dumb. Still got some SPY working but this was a softball lobbed up to me and I completely whiffed...

Note to self...always buy the 10:30am low.

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Really thought small caps would end the year with a nice rally...but all money is going to into mega cap tech which is beyond inflated at this point.

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KyloG said:
Have NVDA swing still working from mid $128....chart looks amazing. I had intended to close position at $138-$139 but now having second thoughts. I will probably close 1/3 of position before close.

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Didn't sell any before close yesterday so still got a large position from $128'ish on....the weekly chart looks really rood. Been consolidating for like 6 months now.

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Apple doesn't do red weeks...non stop buying. I imagine Apple's buy back machine is on into the end of the year.

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One reason why I rarely...very rarely trade options. 0DTE options can get away from you quickly.

By the way...Ripster is a must follow on twitter. I don't do his trading group but I have considered it.

 
Sucky day....I don't have much on...little bit of SPY and still holding some NVDA from $128. But a big gap down and they are pressing it lower. Tech getting hammered. Normally I would buy some v/s the 10:00-10:30am low but I am not really feeling it.

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What an ugly day...didn't do anything and closed out the little SPY I had on. Mostly cash now and will stay that way. This sure is an ugly pattern but everytime I think that we get some insane V rally.

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Market getting hammered early...the mag7 trade has gotten so crowded and there will be a lot of tax selling to start the year. Also reading the Japan/carry trade isn't done yet this could be some EOY deleveraging. I don't have much going on and I don't think I will do much this week.

The 8dema about to cross the 50dema which is typically very bearish.

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Next time Tesla goes full on crazy to the upside, remind me to sell all of my long term stuff.

Kthxbai

It's pretty likely at this point that it's signalled a medium term high for the Nasdaq, and it could turn out to be long term.
 
This is my one swing on...NVDA from $128's a couple of weeks ago. Powerful candle...see how it closes. I plan on holding these shares until it breaks $127.

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Bought some SPY/Qs on that morning gap fill...the SPY, outside of tech, is very oversold. Maybe we get some short covering into the new year.
 
2025

The revenge of the oil stock.

I don't expect something so big, it's truly bad, but I think crude can threaten $90.
 
KyloG said:
Bought some SPY/Qs on that morning gap fill...the SPY, outside of tech, is very oversold. Maybe we get some short covering into the new year.
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Alright...gap filled, SPY is very oversold..outside of tech. Let's see if it can test the 8/20demas above...that would be my target for these shares.

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KyloG said:
Alright...gap filled, SPY is very oversold..outside of tech. Let's see if it can test the 8/20demas above...that would be my target for these shares.

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Well this didn't work out...got stopped out. So dumb...rejected the 50dema again. This looks so bad...it's primed to see a huge gap down on Thursday to create an island top.

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More likely than not IMO that TSLA deliveries is a bearish event on the stock.

Might not be meaningful for the whole year in 2025, at least, I'm not sure yet, but I think it sees at least $375 and it's likely we see tech continue lagging to open 2025.

The faint hints are there. Next meaningful up day probably ain't tech stock led.
 
One reason I’m not super bullish 2025. This market is so top heavy and yes they can continue to keep it like this but the piper will be paid.

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This is so gross....market had 4 very bearish days in a row...closed on the dead lows into a holiday and now a huge gap up. Sometimes I hate this market...only thing I have on is a NVDA swing from 128'ish. I am not chasing this gap up...I imagine this probably gets filled hard tomorrow or early next week.

I won't do much, I've learned not to trade when the market is aggravating.

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Here we go with TSLA I think...although the miss not producing that much of a move (at least not yet), might be a sign that it's just more prudent to watch to see if Elon can hold up his relationship with Trump.
 
KyloG said:
This is so gross....market had 4 very bearish days in a row...closed on the dead lows into a holiday and now a huge gap up. Sometimes I hate this market...only thing I have on is a NVDA swing from 128'ish. I am not chasing this gap up...I imagine this probably gets filled hard tomorrow or early next week.

I won't do much, I've learned not to trade when the market is aggravating.

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Yep...absurd market rolled over hard. My only long is NVDA and it's still green though.

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Since December 19th:

XLE: +3.4%

XLK: -0.81%

Subtle, but the trend is very much there and likely to continue at least into April to make people squirm.
 
Futures pretty muted . Still think we gap up in am then fade as the day goes on . Opens red Tuesday then rips green after jolts for a huge bull trap . Market closed Thursday so another screwed up trading week
 
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