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Misc Stock Market

It actually doesn't, but feel free to continue believing that.

BLS publishes a margin of error for all their reports and even the 2nd revisions are nearly always within the error bars. What's been happing since Covid is them trying to get a handle on the births/deaths model which was broken by the excessive deaths during the pandemic. That doesn't necessarily mean fewer jobs were created, only that the estimated payroll growth was off because the model was off.
 
severestorm said:
The economy sucks

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Yes, Job additions have been way overstated, but jobless claims don't lie (well maybe for 1 week and then corrected the next) and that is still historically low around 235k. The economy doesn't "suck" but it ain't gangbusters either. We are slowing but not negative growth.
 
I think the bigger issue on the above is the size of this adjustment. The market has been relying on these numbers and to come back and move them this much should tell us all that these numbers we are being given should not be trusted.
 
Thor said:
I think the bigger issue on the above is the size of this adjustment. The market has been relying on these numbers and to come back and move them this much should tell us all that these numbers we are being given should not be trusted.
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Monthly BLS numbers are always an estimate. The quarterly numbers are more precise.

I feel that many folks are completely misunderstanding what this revision is. This does not mean we lost 800k jobs. Over 2 million *new* jobs were created in those 12 months putting us well ahead of population growth. The 800k revision represents about 0.5% of total jobs in the country. The last time we had a revision on this level was 2019 when a 500k correction was made.

This revision really can be looked at as a weird echo from the Covid years. Lots of businesses opened and lots closed in a very short amount of time. This threw a wrench into the data that had to get flushed out in the BLS model. It’s convoluted and messy to explain. Remember we’re still trying to climb down from the Covid shock economically and if we do get a “soft landing” it will be a tremendous win for the Fed. We’ve far outperformed every other peer economy in the last few years and this is the last hurtle back to normalizing the economy. It has to happen before we can look at major tax and entitlement reform in the next few years.
 
KyloG said:
Bought the gap fill today on the Q's...was worried we would wake up to a 2% gap up which would have sucked. A bunch of TQQQ at 53 low....the fact they filled the gap and then it took off gives a little more confidence. This ain't the prettiest chart but a move into the 8/20dema makes sense and then we see.

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Market looks fairly rough. I missed alot of the July/Aug sell off and missed some of the rip after, mainly scalping longs. Out of the way with Sept being so historically week and macro/economy data coming in weaker. Been a great year and have no fomo here.

I am bullish for a strong close to the year down the road but in the near term it looks like it's headed lower.

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September is a rough month historically for the market. The S&P 500 was last up in September in 2019 and then it was only up .2% (market finished up 31% that year)
 
Hedge your bets. My take is how can you even trust the feds info Friday that will dictate whether they cut Sept 18th? Seriously they always inflate to get pos headlines for political reasons, then go back and re-dact. Anyway good read, interesting speculation.

Global markets are bracing for a surprise on Friday​


www.cnbctv18.com

Global markets are bracing for a surprise on Friday - CNBC TV18

US interest rates are set to fall for the first time in over four and a half years. The quantum of the first rate cut later in September will hinge on a data point due to be released this Friday.
www.cnbctv18.com www.cnbctv18.com
 
Fairly tough price action the past few days....the Qs after open was ripped hard lower by 2%....now has bounced 3.5% straight up.

I don't care who you are....shorts/longs...have to be frustrated by very predatory price action. I've been mostly scalping quick trades the past couple of weeks but missed out on most of this today. I think today was an interim low but I'm not sure.

Been spoiled by low VIX for so long.

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New record highs today for Dow, S&P, and Invidia! Apple and Nasdaq not too far from records, themselves.
 
I've been fairly quiet past couple of months...been a great year. But, I think the market has put in a 2024 top....I also think the next 3-4 months could be ugly. Inflation is still a problem, yet Fed is cutting rates, which makes no sense. I think unemployment ticks up next year. I am leaning towards 2025 being a down year...nothing big...maby down 3-5% or something.

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Triplephase93 said:
Any thoughts on how NVDA earnings report will affect the market?
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I don't have high hopes for NVDA in the near term...it opened 2024 at roughly $50...it's almost $150...so up 3x. It's trading at 35x sales, which is just absurd for it's size. But...I don't think it's going to rollover hard either. It's growth is legit but it's yoy comps will get much harder going forward. They will need to deliver 30-40% growth next few years to justify it's valuation, on top of very tough yoy comps. Maybe they can and maybe it's valuation will just stay irrational.

But back to your original question...they need to guide higher or this market pulls back.



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also bought a bunch of TQQQ this morning at 77.30....I have been rather quiet the past week or so and now just some quick swings.

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From Jan-June I was very heavy tech and since the July/Japan mini crash I have switched to primarily SPY. I did buy some TQQQ today but I don't know what to think of tech. RSI is weak...in the 50's but it's above the ema's and trying to hold the July high. I really don't know what to expect rest of this year...

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