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Misc Stock Market

This is a full on de-leveraging event in tech...makes you wonder how bad things are under the hood in this market. I am 90% cash and haven't done much of anything the past couple of weeks and nothing in this market is screaming buy the dip. I don't know what will get me back in the market in the short term. This price action reminds me of the bear market in 2022...maybe worse.

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SPY has rejected 547 5 days in a row now...rejected into it's 8/20dema and now has given up the 50dma. This could get ugly...but things can change fast which is why I don't short. But...this should resolve much lower...


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No clue what is keeping up IWM...I am expecting this to really rollover and when it does it will be just as fast down as it was up.

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No snow for you said:
Dealer Gamma is negative. It makes for wild swings.
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This could be why....

United States ISM Manufacturing PMI

Business Confidence in the United States decreased to 46.50 points in October from 47.20 points in September of 2024. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and...
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
 
severestorm said:
This could be why....

United States ISM Manufacturing PMI

Business Confidence in the United States decreased to 46.50 points in October from 47.20 points in September of 2024. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and...
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
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Lot's of reasons why. The big one is the uptick in Jobless claims. That is one of the few econ data points you can't mess with, or at least if you do it is fixed the next week. The other one is trade data bc both sides would have to agree to lie and they can't agree with anyone right now.
 
What a disaster. Can someone explain to me why Powell had his presser and decided not to cut rates a day before the jobs report? Why would you not wait until after that report to decide on rates? Thanks Powell I've lost my ass now
 
KyloG said:
SPY has rejected 547 5 days in a row now...rejected into it's 8/20dema and now has given up the 50dma. This could get ugly...but things can change fast which is why I don't short. But...this should resolve much lower...


View attachment 148947
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Just a terrible looking chart...unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% coupled with the Yen/carry trade leverage unwinding.

Classic bearish island top. I haven't done much of anything for a few weeks now....no plans to either other than a quick scalp of extreme oversold conditions.

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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
What a disaster. Can someone explain to me why Powell had his presser and decided not to cut rates a day before the jobs report? Why would you not wait until after that report to decide on rates? Thanks Powell I've lost my ass now
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Because since 2005 the Fed has done what the market has anticipated in terms or cutting or raising rates at the time of the meeting except 2 times. One was in 2008 when the market priced in a .25 cut and the fed held rates the same. 2 weeks later they cut .50 inter meeting. The other was March of 2020. The Fed gives or takes what the market expects.
 
USD/JPY…what a mess.

I can’t imagine that we’re far from intervention occurring there, and the Fed is most likely going to have to help here because it’s either they help out or they’re going to be doing 50 bps cuts (which I doubt they want to do) while the Nikkei crashes into oblivion.
 
Q’s down nearly 6% pre market. We haven’t seen anything close to this since Covid. This is a white Buffalo kind of day. These are the ones you’ll always remember. Buckle up.
 
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