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Misc Stock Market

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
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Yeah, frankly at this point, there are two things that happened yesterday that are very suspect. One being that you had futures get driven lower hard at around the 10 AM hour despite NYSE breadth being pretty good, and two being the fact that treasuries were strangely bid.

The latter sadly looks like it was to help the big guys position their bond shorts.

Anyway, I somehow managed to forget that PPI is tomorrow. Guessing that's bad too, but honestly think tomorrow's gap down is bought.

Need at least one solid green day even if you are pulling an August-October 2023 redux.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah, frankly at this point, there are two things that happened yesterday that are very suspect. One being that you had futures get driven lower hard at around the 10 AM hour despite NYSE breadth being pretty good, and two being the fact that treasuries were strangely bid.

The latter sadly looks like it was to help the big guys position their bond shorts.

Anyway, I somehow managed to forget that PPI is tomorrow. Guessing that's bad too, but honestly think tomorrow's gap down is bought.

Need at least one solid green day even if you are pulling an August-October 2023 redux.
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Yes. I want a gap down to buy back into TSLA calls and probably some Spy calls for top retest into next week. VIX remains elevated but not so high that they can’t bring it back under 13.80 with relative ease
 
Maybe it changes, but it still looks like what applied in 2023 applies at least for now.

Kinda makes me wish I could buy options instead of just sell them as I’d hedge with IWM puts if so, even though I’m mostly large caps outside of VRT and I think VICI. I don’t actually seriously trade, my OCD has just gotten terrible here.

Anyhow, guessing that core PPI comes in at 0.5 MoM and 0.6 for headline. No analysis, just feels and expecting the worst.
 
This market sucks right now...GLD is ripping like the apocalypse is coming. Market goes up 1-2% one day and then gaps down huge the next. JPM earnings sent warning shots about the economy/inflation. I'm just watching.
 
i enjoy the swings plenty of meat on the bone for everyone
watching to see if the NDQ comes up to retest top trend and falls off again .. should see some good action either way bull or bear

edit kind of surprised they didn't ram it up to fill the gap and retest the trend lines.. guess this is showing a weaker side of the markets..still 10:30 plenty of time I suppose1712932295643.png
 
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VIX at 6 month high but SPY/Q are 2% off ATH's. Market very very difficult to get down and stay down.

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NDQ has a pretty big head and shoulders on the 5min charts
neckline broke 1712939669035.png
 
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Oil prices about to skyrocket on Monday. Iran just fired missiles/drones at Israel.
 
I guess I probably should look to hop back in...the S&P oscillator is way oversold. Problem is I don't like chasing huge gap ups like this...would have much preferred to buy a down open.

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Something gotta give...10yr yield is ripping higher...5-6 months highs but so is Qs/SPY.

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I added some on that gap fill...50/50 cash now...TQQQ at $58.95. I will give this some room though.
 
Needless to say got stopped out when $57.50 broke. Should have been more patient and waited...with yields surging it made no sense to see equities with a huge gap up.
 
hit sqqq 5% bought friday.. limit order hit on bnkd 5% sold back in on the bull side atm NDQ and DOW has broken trendline dow has crossed the 200 on the 4hr momentum defiantly looking like we have shifted bear

NDQ had a pretty seeable set up coming into this morning hoping we can run back up and tag the 9day avg on the 15min chart before close 1713204846539.png
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We really need to gap down tomorrow, these overnight futures rallies just help calm down the oversold-ness.

At this point, if we gap up, I probably hate buy a bit of SQQQ tomorrow.
 
Oscillator is at a multi year low. If we could get a hard down open and push lower I would look again to buy. These aggravating gap ups really suck but probably what we get tomorrow.

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Qs/SPY in free fall...gap fill down to $424 for the Qs and SPY fills at $495.

I was about to try and dip buy this morning but when $430 broke again I didn't. I think I've had like 3 trades in a month...all small losses. Market is very oversold so shorts are going to let up soon and I think we see a 2-3% relief rally.

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Have to remind myself these weekly macd crosses usually result in a multi-week correction. Of course this is week 3 down for the SPX/Qs but we should see a 1-2 week bounce embedded. This is very tricky time...can't buy strength and have to sell into any bounces.


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KyloG said:
AMD been my biggest holding over the years and now it's gotten too big...trimmed a few shares at $200.

This was $60/share 15 months ago.

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This was a good sell at $200 a few weeks back...sold 25% of my shares...added some of that back today at $155 and will wait to see how it reacts to add more back. I could see mid $140's. This long term account...I have no swings on, 100% cash there.

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premarket thoughts went south ended up hitting the short run up to cover
anyone see LAC down 20% after hours adding public shares I did buy some @ 5.25
 
Yeah, if that Taiwan Semi print isn’t bought at open, then that will just about seal it for me.

The Nasdaq will drop at least 10-12% again, it just probably won’t be right away (as in, the month of April) because this is looking so similar to late summer of last year. Probably bouncy week next week post OPEX, and a continuation down in May.
 
Geez...Tesla in free fall. Growth is gone and inventory building up...market has lost confidence in Elon.

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Apple broke below $167-$168. This is day 5 down for the SPY so this is getting really really oversold but no rushing to buy.

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KyloG said:
Geez...Tesla in free fall. Growth is gone and inventory building up...market has lost confidence in Elon.

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I got shook out of so many correct trades this week it’s disgusting. I got smoked today on 0dte SPY calls but I’m going all in on TSLA 160’s for next week at the opening bell tomorrow. It loves to run back into the daily EMA20 in 3-4 days after closing a daily candle below key support. If I die, I die.
 
Looks like Iran won’t respond to this. They claimed they shot down drones. The way they responded to it sounds like this is one and done.
 


20 min clip. Starts about 6;05 mark. Perfect breakdown what happened last night. This will be end of this fire for now. You ever want to know whats going on in Israel Middle east, this is the guy to listen to. Also there is a channel on you tube NY Prepper. You will be light years ahead of news, breaking news Geo Politically if you follow, get alerts from this guy. Amazing past 48 hours, saw last night coming from the night before.

I dumped into Gold excessively Heavy Tuesday morning, abandoned all stocks, MF's. Reason I did was listening to 2 guys above and using some discernment. Out of the box. Not by the book. But this was like forecasting a cold rain verse 12 inches of GFS snow, seeing Boundary Layer temps in the 40's before the event began.
 
Tech lagging hard...something going to give. You don't see this divergence between tech and the rest.

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I did add some TQQQ at $52 and giving it to 51.50...I'm not sure how much I will carry over the weekend with a war brewing.
 
Snowfan said:
Looks like Iran won’t respond to this. They claimed they shot down drones. The way they responded to it sounds like this is one and done.
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Correct....no need in sensationalizing something that was really a nothing-burger from the get go.
 
KyloG said:
I did add some TQQQ at $52 and giving it to 51.50...I'm not sure how much I will carry over the weekend with a war brewing.
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Got stopped out fairly quickly...going to stick to stops at the morning low for awhile. This is day 6 down for SPX which is very very rare.
 
Qs closed right at ATHs week ago...now it's lost virtually all of it's 2024 gains 6 days later....unreal

Last time I remember seeing something like that was the start of 2022 and the bear market. I can't fathom another bear market in 2024...but I am definitely biased bullish so got to be careful.

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