I’ll say SPY touches -3.5% at some point tomorrow
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Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Storm5
Member
Futes selling hard
SPY gap down 
Storm5
Member
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Woof
Uh…so now rate hikes are iffy. ?
They’re desperately trying not to get a flash crash. Ingredients are there.
Broken024
Member
Assuming this doesn't escalate much further everyone is going to remember no one gives a ---- about eastern Ukraine by about 2:30 tomorrow. I'll be buying calls.
Going to fill my vehicles up tonight. Oil to the ?
Please give me a good call entry. I feel like everyone is expecting 420 to break for SPY tomorrow so I’ll be eyeing an entry above there for a good call scalp. Fade me please ??
Storm5
Member
Storm5
Member
NATO emergency meeting at 9 tonight . Sanction news will break overnight
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Broken024
Member
Channeling my inner bird
Uh…so now rate hikes are iffy. ?
I think rate hikes might get delayed if Russia launches a full scale invasion. The market will panic. Then again, an invasion will also likely push prices even higher and worsen inflation, so who knows. We are screwed in several ways in that event.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I feel like a hike is still likely in March unless you see worse than what I've described to be honest. Like if we dump hard to lower than 3500, then maybe not (and frankly that can't be ruled out entirely, but that's still not my base case).
But at this moment, I'd say it's 50/50 that TNX is back at 1.5-1.6% when Powell is at the podium in a few weeks, and that's very unhelpful if you want to tighten financial conditions. As it goes down, the chances of a hike are going to lower, but one is coming unless what I said above happens imo.
The thing that should be noted here as well is that pretty much all of the initial hikes are bear traps. It's the hike that's later that breaks something.
But at this moment, I'd say it's 50/50 that TNX is back at 1.5-1.6% when Powell is at the podium in a few weeks, and that's very unhelpful if you want to tighten financial conditions. As it goes down, the chances of a hike are going to lower, but one is coming unless what I said above happens imo.
The thing that should be noted here as well is that pretty much all of the initial hikes are bear traps. It's the hike that's later that breaks something.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If I were trading (which I actually might try here), I'd look for 4250 to be a low (SPX not ES).
If it's not, then I don't think we double bottom, and we probably have a big down week like the week starting on January 18th. We're not dropping 5-7% in one day, but another -5% + week could end up happening.
If it's not, then I don't think we double bottom, and we probably have a big down week like the week starting on January 18th. We're not dropping 5-7% in one day, but another -5% + week could end up happening.