Let me be clear, I think we're gapping down on Tuesday regardless of what happens in Ukraine. That's been the post-OPEX pattern the last couple times, so I don't think it's going to matter if there's positive news or not. Do I expect the ridiculousness of 1/24, no, but I do think Tuesday will at least start down.
What happens from there on Tuesday/Wednesday will go a long way to determining for me if whether 1/24 was the low for at least the time being, or if whether Q1 2022 is going to be somewhat like Q4 2018. If it's the latter, then I expect 3800 before the next FOMC meeting, and for the lead into it to probably be a bear trap.
If it's the former, then I wouldn't be surprised if we went into burn all the puts mode, which is the mode that October last year was in. Then probably get an even nastier correction later in the year...