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Misc Stock Market

KyloG said:
What is predictable is this is very much a momentum driven market, mob mentality rules. Very little in the way of fundamentals drives much anymore. And ever since covid the retail mob has come in and they buy every dip. Institutions don't fight that....well they tried and they got crushed with GME/AMC.

Unemployment is very low and wages are up. More money going into the market weekly with 401k's.
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I continue to passively invest a decent portion (though not majority) of my portfolio in diversified equities with a good amount of cash always available. If there are any sizable dips, I may take some of that cash and nibble with some new longterm longs.
 
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SPY rejected $450 multiple times past couple of weeks....market could really get fun with a weekly close over $450.

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So, NVDA reports tomorrow actually, so there's freedom for whatever to happen.

But I gotta say, if Russia isn't launching an attack tomorrow (if there is a specific report that "an attack is going to happen at 3 AM eastern on Wednesday", then if you want to make the west look bad, then why would you actually do it if you do have plans to do it?), I can't imagine that we get 4 out of 5 tape bombs.

But I didn't think we'd get 3 straight tape bombs (there was one yesterday for a little while, even though the Russia stuff that was put out there got dismissed), so never say never. Maybe we get 5 out of 6 tape bombs...or maybe I go 2 for my last 2 on my feel (as I was feeling last night that you weren't going to see a similar reaction to PPI as what was seen with CPI).

Now, if Russia is doing something like annex Donbass, then we are going to get hit tomorrow for sure. What happens after is anyone's guess though.
 
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So the reports of troops going home this am that were only reported by Russia still haven't been verified and we still have us intelligence sounding the alarm that they are going in soon .

Either way fed minutes will create a blood bath tomorrow afternoon with or without more Russian news
 
KyloG said:
GeorgiaGirl said:
So, NVDA reports tomorrow actually, so there's freedom for whatever to happen.

But I gotta say, if Russia isn't launching an attack tomorrow (if there is a specific report that "an attack is going to happen at 3 AM eastern on Wednesday", then if you want to make the west look bad, then why would you actually do it if you do have plans to do it?), I can't imagine that we get 4 out of 5 tape bombs.

But I didn't think we'd get 3 straight tape bombs (there was one yesterday for a little while, even though the Russia stuff that was put out there got dismissed), so never say never. Maybe we get 5 out of 6 tape bombs...or maybe I go 2 for my last 2 on my feel (as I was feeling last night that you weren't going to see a similar reaction to PPI as what was seen with CPI).

Now, if Russia is doing something like annex Donbass, then we are going to get hit tomorrow for sure. What happens after is anyone's guess though.
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I just don't see it . To much uncertainty with Russia , fed minutes , Bullard speaking Thursday . Could be wrong , but it rejected resistance literally like 8 times today so it's gonna take something big to get a $450 break this week .
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I'm wrong a lot thought so .......
 
Storm5 said:
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So the reports of troops going home this am that were only reported by Russia still haven't been verified and we still have us intelligence sounding the alarm that they are going in soon .

Either way fed minutes will create a blood bath tomorrow afternoon with or without more Russian news
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Regarding what I bolded regarding the Fed minutes: When it appears to be this certain in the markets, that means it likely is far from certain. Maybe a lot of that is already priced in. Could be a buy the bearish news scenario (opposite of selling off on bullish news). Has most everyone already sold on this in advance?
 
Broken024 said:
World war 3 is priced in already. We good till ww4.
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The fact that the market didn't go down late today after Biden's speech may really mean that the bad news is already largely priced in. Could be a buy the bearish news scenario from this point on assuming it doesn't get too crazy. Nobody knows.
 
If big players were thinking that war is a legit threat, the VIX should be higher than what it is.

The fact that some of the hedging has been burned leaves the door open for the hammer though.
 
Retail sales came in hot....CPI hot...PPI hot...inflation is hot. ?‍♂️

When does the Fed realize we are in big trouble with inflation. With QE still flowing and rates at 0% I don't think they get it. ?‍♂️

 
GaWx said:
Regarding what I bolded regarding the Fed minutes: When it appears to be this certain in the markets, that means it likely is far from certain. Maybe a lot of that is already priced in. Could be a buy the bearish news scenario (opposite of selling off on bullish news). Has most everyone already sold on this in advance?
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Last fed minutes release caused a 2 percent drop. Short term I'm buying weekly puts . Hope for a dip for sure cause you are right it would be a great buying opportunity
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
But I gotta say, if Russia isn't launching an attack tomorrow (if there is a specific report that "an attack is going to happen at 3 AM eastern on Wednesday", then if you want to make the west look bad, then why would you actually do it if you do have plans to do it?), I can't imagine that we get 4 out of 5 tape bombs.
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Aaaannnndddddd nope.

Looks like 4 out of 5 tape bombs it is considering that we started similarly to 1/5.

Sell the news that we're afraid of, and then sell the news that comes out.

Over under -100 on SPX at some point today?
 
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