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Misc Stock Market

We may very well see the kind of move that I don’t love at all today.

Most of the move by stocks was the positive Russia headline burning the hedges that were put on.

However, compared to Thursday, bonds aren’t as much of a mess as they were that day. That day wasn’t about TNX, it was about the curve really flattening. It was a mess of a day.
 
Rain Cold said:
Prominent H&S: Negative
Prominent Double Top: Negative
S&P Rejection at 200 DMA: Negative
CPI Surprise Upside: Negative
PPI Surprise Upside: Negative
Fed Speakers Bearish: Negative
Fed to hike by 50 bps in March: Negative
GG/Reddit Index: Bearish

Outlooks for stocks: Bullish
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You're thinking too hard. ?? ???
 
Brought this up last week...SPY/S&P doesn't like to go below the 50wma. It tagged it again yesterday and like a dummy I was scared Putin was about to start a world war so I sat on my hands. Lesson learned.

Back in last 2018 the markets went full pout mode about rate hikes and Powell caved and actually cut rates...but inflation wasn't a problem then. Then we had the covid crash. But each time the market just rips furiously higher and I suspect thats what is going to happen this time.

That was so dumb yesterday...

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Storm5 said:
Fed minutes tomorrow will be a 1-2 percent drop like last time I'm buying spy puts before the bell


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I really hope we get a 1-2% dip tomorrow as I would like to start building long positions. Market expects a 0.5% rate hike in March and QE to end and with Powell I really don't know. He's such an idiot that he probably only does 0.25% and somehow extends QE a few more months. He's a puppet for the markets to go higher.
 
Tech has a clear flag building....normally this would be a bear flag but those don't exist anymore.

4hr chart

Screen Shot 2022-02-15 at 10.57.34 AM.png
 
Fed minutes tomorrow then Bullard speaks Thursday at 11 lol . Puts will print
8ae3ffd8294d9cf968051186c6b6d161.jpg



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Someone bought $8m worth of calls for $AMAT, $145 strike for the March exp. Earnings tomorrow...anything semi related been cranking out good earnings.
 
Rain Cold said:
Prominent H&S: Negative
Prominent Double Top: Negative
S&P Rejection at 200 DMA: Negative
CPI Surprise Upside: Negative
PPI Surprise Upside: Negative
Fed Speakers Bearish: Negative
Fed to hike by 50 bps in March: Negative
GG/Reddit Index: Bearish

Outlooks for stocks: Bullish
Click to expand...

But looking back in history, how often have the markets truly been “predictable” in the short to medium term? I think that folks too easily forget that markets too often go against the so called “expected”. If short term investing were so easy/predictable, practically everyone would do it and there’d be less or no reward for doing it successfully. With no risk, there’s no reward.

Corollary to this: whenever “everyone” feels bullish/bearish, in reality it is bearish/bullish. If everyone is feeling bullish/bearish, they’ve already bought/sold and there’s nobody left to buy/sell.

Also related to this, technical analysis is far from flawless. Related to this, there are different ways to look at something from a TA analysis.
 
GaWx said:
But looking back in history, how often have the markets truly been “predictable” in the short to medium term? I think that folks too easily forget that markets too often go against the so called “expected”. If short term investing were so easy/predictable, practically everyone would do it and there’d be less or no reward for doing it successfully. With no risk, there’s no reward.

Corollary to this: whenever “everyone” feels bullish/bearish, in reality it is bearish/bullish. If everyone is feeling bullish/bearish, they’ve already bought/sold and there’s nobody left to buy/sell.

Also related to this, technical analysis is far from flawless. Related to this, there are different ways to look at something from a TA analysis.
Click to expand...
The markets have been extremely predictable since 2010. Can you time every dip or pullback? No. But outside of the fringe/alt media, everybody has been overall bullish...and they've been correct. "Bear market's" have been astonishingly short in duration. Almost everyone has been bullish. TA has done a fairly good job helping you time things, if you're a day trader. But, my post was more in jest than anything else.
 
Rain Cold said:
The markets have been extremely predictable since 2010. Can you time every dip or pullback? No. But outside of the fringe/alt media, everybody has been overall bullish...and they've been correct. "Bear market's" have been astonishingly short in duration. Almost everyone has been bullish. TA has done a fairly good job helping you time things, if you're a day trader. But, my post was more in jest than anything else.
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It is very difficult to time the market. That’s why I feel that the most prudent choice for the longterm (multidecadal) especially if young, is to invest a sizable portion of assets in diversified equities. Being LONGTERM bullish is the best way to go per history for the majority of money invested in stocks as opposed to trying to time getting in and getting out.
 
KyloG said:
Someone bought $8m worth of calls for $AMAT, $145 strike for the March exp. Earnings tomorrow...anything semi related been cranking out good earnings.
Click to expand...

I like it.

Given the way earnings have been going, I don't like it enough to finish the position that I have before earnings (which I added to last a while ago). Already got burned once. But if it drops, I might finish that position.

Speaking of which, considering the way semis have been running today, it is probably going to HURT for all of them if NVDA tanks on earnings. And if it doesn't, it could be a tailwind for the day.

Edit: Wait, NVDA reports tomorrow, like AMAT does. Whoops.
 
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GaWx said:
But looking back in history, how often have the markets truly been “predictable” in the short to medium term? I think that folks too easily forget that markets too often go against the so called “expected”. If short term investing were so easy/predictable, practically everyone would do it and there’d be less or no reward for doing it successfully. With no risk, there’s no reward.

Corollary to this: whenever “everyone” feels bullish/bearish, in reality it is bearish/bullish. If everyone is feeling bullish/bearish, they’ve already bought/sold and there’s nobody left to buy/sell.

Also related to this, technical analysis is far from flawless. Related to this, there are different ways to look at something from a TA analysis.
Click to expand...

What is predictable is this is very much a momentum driven market, mob mentality rules. Very little in the way of fundamentals drives much anymore. And ever since covid the retail mob has come in and they buy every dip. Institutions don't fight that....well they tried and they got crushed with GME/AMC.

Unemployment is very low and wages are up. More money going into the market weekly with 401k's.
 
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