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Misc Stock Market

www.federalreserve.gov

Closed Board Meeting - February 14, 2022

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov

I don't know about a surprise rate hike in a few days, but a hard stop to QE may happen. They were going to release a final QE schedule tomorrow. I'd say that does not happen.

Having said that, the interesting thing is, the only time that you've seen a surprise rate hike:



ETA: That meeting apparently isn't actually important.
 
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S&P futs has rejected $4585 3 times but has also rejected $4460 5 times now. That's about a 3% channel that will get resolved one way or another soon.

Ideally, we get a retest of $4260-$4280 area. That's my hope. But, everyone sees these pivots so it's going to be violent bounce as it approaches...if it approaches.

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By the way, I'd say what I had mapped out in my head before the Bullard bomb was more neutral then actually bearish.

I had a 4600-4650 high into options expiration next week and then a move lower after that to perhaps search for a higher low before the live meeting in March. Was thinking that you'd see that suck in some more put buying (there are already a LOT of puts for March), and then after a hike is announced, we'd see a move higher instead of lower to make the puts die.

Now I'm not certain. It feels like the risk is high that we full on "December 2018" it into that meeting. My question if that were to happen would be if whether hiking would help with certainty, unless credit markets get into an uncomfortable place...
 
Added some $AMD. Had great earnings, great guidance. Will accumulate.

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Interesting option flow just came in for LRCX....always interesting watching this unfold.

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KyloG said:
Interesting option flow just came in for LRCX....always interesting watching this unfold.

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Russian related.

I like semis, but we're likely going to get a better opportunity to buy the dip, as apparently Russian stuff would affect semis in a negative way.

In related news...crude to a million it seems now. Freak my freaking life.
 
Time for the Friday afternoon vertical rally. Here we go.
 
If Putin doesn't invade, then I think vol gives this back on Monday, which would mean a snapback in stocks.

I've quoted Crimea before, but in reality, I don't want anything with Ukraine because oil is already too high. And if that escalated, that would get worse even if we tighten.

This is apparently not even certain (saw that some in Russia don't buy it, because they don't think Putin wants the sanctions), but merely mentioning it has caused a huge bond market rally and oil is mooning off it.
 
Markets rolling over in a heap, about to get world war 3 and the AMC fools are clutching those shares. One of the few green.

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