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Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Earnings haven't mattered for over a decade.
severestorm
Member
severestorm
Member
I'm nearing 100% chance the FED does not pivot this year and maybe into next year with this data...1980's all over again.
No snow for you
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Powell is not going down as Arthur Burns. He believes that if they hit a crisis because they have raised rates too much they can respond as they did with Covid. There is no "pivot" in this man.
severestorm
Member
Yup, market thinks they are going to pivot and that's not the case. He's going the Volcker route. Insane consumer inflation expectations are so low already. And people are buying homes again. clown world lol
No snow for you
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LCID was rumored to be taken private by he Saudis. Sound familiar?
I know MVIS gets clowned but these guys are on point and about to make some big announcements. Feel very confident with my investment in them
No snow for you
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welp tech
severestorm
Member
?
severestorm
Member
Good Advice
Storm5
Member
AMD puts only have 3 72s it's all about guidance
David Lowery
Member
Storm5
Member
AMD meh . Flat double beat with shrinking margins . Will be interesting to see if this small move AH holds
Data Center was great, but pc was very bad as expected. Lisa said she expects a recovery 2nd half in that space. 16% yoy growth with a very tough comp is solid. It's still my biggest individual holding from now low $60's avg.
Storm5
Member
Yeah my puts are toast . Expire next Friday but still wrecked . My only hope is a Hawkish Powell today to send the market to hell
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severestorm
Member
No way Powell is Dovish today. Especially after the jolts report.
Powell doesn’t want the stock market up so I expect fairly hawkish Q/A. But, they are going to be nearing 5% ffr and they need to pause.
severestorm
Member
Didn't expect Powell to be this hawkish. wow...
Problem is market knows they are close to the end of hikes and market will take off once it's confirmed. But Jay doesn't want market higher.
David Lowery
Member
As long as inflation cools he has no reason to hike in the future or am I wrong?
Storm5
Member
How has it cooled ? CPI report will be HOt next month . Gas and oil up 15 percent last month
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Must not be too hawkish. Stocks are green on the day.
David Lowery
Member
Sorry was just asking a question. I believe it has not cooled either. I agree with you about the cpi report. Gas prices have jumped, I did notice
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
It's below 2% if you annualize it from June/July
Oil still down 11% yoy though. I think we continue to see softer CPI next few months. Wages/jobs are I think going to be the problem. Jay wants balance and it hasn’t come yet.
Any thoughts on TMF? 5 year isn’t great but bought in on the 31st and have had decent return so far.
$CRWD was my first retail buy of the year yesterday on the move through $108. Sold 60% here at $115.50. $125 seems likely in the next week or so.
I feel like I am late to the party but the plan was to sit out January and see where the market was. Not going to chase anything today.
I feel like I am late to the party but the plan was to sit out January and see where the market was. Not going to chase anything today.
This is getting just slightly absurd... there was many positioned short tech to start the year thinking this was going to be a multi-year blood bath like 2000-2002 so shorts are unwinding now. And maybe this is just a short term rally but we shall see.
severestorm
Member
Companies are buying back probably from the money saved from layoffs. There's no external liquidity, markets are trying to go back to fundamentals. There was a rally before the fall in 2008 I believe.
Zuckerberg and Intel are shipping the proceeds from their layoffs straight to Wall Street
Wall Street long groused about cash-generating tech companies refusing to pay dividends and buy back stock. That is no longer a problem, in multiple respects.
www.marketwatch.com
Companies are buying back probably from the money saved from layoffs. There's no external liquidity, markets are trying to go back to fundamentals. There was a rally before the fall in 2008 I believe.
Zuckerberg and Intel are shipping the proceeds from their layoffs straight to Wall Street
Wall Street long groused about cash-generating tech companies refusing to pay dividends and buy back stock. That is no longer a problem, in multiple respects.
Problem is we saw the unemploy rate rate spike and you had big financial institutions failing in 2008. We have nothing like that.
Storm5
Member
Baba puts only thing saving me for the week . Up 1300 on those to balance losses . Down $50 for the week . Just added 7 414 SPY puts for next week . Still no pullback yet
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severestorm
Member
It's coming though. It's slower than 2008. Reason you are not seeing it in the weekly unemployment is because most of the layoffs in tech have severance packages so not many are claiming government benefits. JOLTS job openings for information actually got cut in half from the highs. I also remember it was Lehman Bro's that was the catalyst for the rapid decline in 2008 too. Your seeing companies cut costs and have more slim margins along with US consumer savings rate depressed still. Layoffs will not slow down.
Over 100K job cuts announced in January: analysis
U.S. companies announced roughly 103,000 job cuts in January, the highest monthly total since September 2020, a Thursday analysis found. Last month was the worst January for job cuts since the Great Recession in 2009, according to a report from employment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas...
META up almost 30% on the day...look at that weekly candle
The Fed may kick themselves. 50bps hikes instead of 75bps over a longer period of time might have prolonged a market downturn which is clearly what they wanted.
The Fed may kick themselves. 50bps hikes instead of 75bps over a longer period of time might have prolonged a market downturn which is clearly what they wanted.