I really don't see how the S&P holds the 200-day if it does happen to go there. At my last look, it's the general area where it bounced three times in October, the gut feeling for me says that a fourth time would fail as support generally weakens at every bounce.
So, if dip buying around here is wrong, then dip buying at the 200-day likely turns out to be wrong too and we'll probably end up seeing 4000-4100, and the apparent historical idea that the S&P usually stays around 10% or so from its record during QE will end up not being the case this time.
I know no one has talked about going to the 200-day on here, just talking about some comments that I saw elsewhere.
That still wouldn't be my base case, but if things don't settle down, it will turn into the base case. Thought we'd see some of what's been seen in the past 3 days next year. May have started early.