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Misc Stock Market

$TSLA just goes up....the call buying is just unreal. Not sure who is orchestrating this but someone is.

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MSFT/GOOGL with new 52w lows....AMD rolling, NVDA too.
 
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KyloG said:
Deja vu....Fed hiking rates quickly, banks complaining about capital requirements. It's never good when the CEO of a big financial institution complains about being required to have strong capital.

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Dimon was the one saying it's going to be a hurricane and now he's panicking? Looks like we might see a Pivot sooner than expected. The pivot needs to happen before January.
 
severestorm said:
Dimon was the one saying it's going to be a hurricane and now he's panicking? Looks like we might see a Pivot sooner than expected. The pivot needs to happen before January.
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Pivot is not going to happen unless the target is reached or things become disorderly. Right now, things are not behaving in a disorderly fashion.
 
Rain Cold said:
Pivot is not going to happen unless the target is reached or things become disorderly. Right now, things are not behaving in a disorderly fashion.
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One problem is still not enough people to fill jobs. Wage growth, which is good for us, but bad for businesses/prices. FedEd commented on this. I don’t see how hiking rates is going to fix that, just going to punish the lower/middle class and destroy housing for years. Fed does need to get rates up to 4% and then they pause to see how things go.

I guess the boomers retiring is what sucked out all the people in jobs. ?‍♂️
 
KyloG said:
One problem is still not enough people to fill jobs. Wage growth, which is good for us, but bad for businesses/prices. FedEd commented on this. I don’t see how hiking rates is going to fix that, just going to punish the lower/middle class and destroy housing for years. Fed does need to get rates up to 4% and then they pause to see how things go.

I guess the boomers retiring is what sucked out all the people in jobs. ?‍♂️
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That and COVID is driving many to disability.

www.brookings.edu

New data shows long Covid is keeping as many as 4 million people out of work

www.brookings.edu www.brookings.edu
 
KyloG said:
One problem is still not enough people to fill jobs. Wage growth, which is good for us, but bad for businesses/prices. FedEd commented on this. I don’t see how hiking rates is going to fix that, just going to punish the lower/middle class and destroy housing for years. Fed does need to get rates up to 4% and then they pause to see how things go.

I guess the boomers retiring is what sucked out all the people in jobs. ?‍♂️
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Boomers retiring is part of it. But I'm not sure anyone fully understands the extent of why there aren't enough workers now. My guess is that it's a combination of many factors. The reaction to the pandemic disenfranchised a lot of workers. Many who were close to retirement simply retired. Many took the covid benefits and found they could make more than their low paying jobs. Many got tired of working extra hours and in poor conditions created by simply not having enough coworkers to do the work. Many have become mentally ill. Many moved back in with other family members, reducing expenses.

I'm sure there are other factors. But the lack of employment has helped to put upward pressure on wages. At the same time, you have had less supply of things, due to shortages and supply chain and manufacturing disruptions. Government stimulus and pandemic benefits have increased money supply. All of that has given rise to inflationary pressures, which the Fed must fight.

Their only hope is to drastically slow the economy, which is not all that hot to begin with. I think that until they see sustained evidence that inflation is hitting the breaks or if something breaks or becomes unstable (like crashing markets, a big institution fails, or banks get in trouble), they will continue raising. That doesn't mean they won't necessarily try and talk a little less hawkishly. But the problem is, every time they seem less hawkish, the market runs ahead, and that's not what they want right now.

That is my conventional outlook. On the other hand, if you want to go down the rabbit hole, it's time for the economy to crash because the current monetary system is unsustainable and is reaching critical levels globally and needs to be reset. So CBs, who have been so accommodating of easy money and parabolic debt rates, have now been ordered to crash it all so the reset can happen. It won't be too terribly long now until we know which option it is.

Bottom line, the fun times are over. It's time to buckle up and get prepared.
 
KyloG said:
One problem is still not enough people to fill jobs. Wage growth, which is good for us, but bad for businesses/prices. FedEd commented on this. I don’t see how hiking rates is going to fix that, just going to punish the lower/middle class and destroy housing for years. Fed does need to get rates up to 4% and then they pause to see how things go.

I guess the boomers retiring is what sucked out all the people in jobs. ?‍♂️
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Boomers retiring in mass his year is a major problem. We just don't have the people for the first time in this countries history to fill the jobs. Also you have seen a cultural shift from the boomers both parents working to Gen X where they try to get buy with one income and if not the other person works part time. That is why the labor participation rate remains low.

Also you are seeing a shift from Capital having all the power since 1982 back to labor having more and more power and labor getting more of the revenue. This will continue for at least the next 20 years and that assumes the Millennials have kids at a rate of 2.1 kids per female (right now it is only 1.6 per).

As for inflation, this inflation is like the 1950's inflation with a touch of 1970's. In the 50's we were building out the highway system and increasing industrial plants which have high up front and inflation pressures bc of the high spending. The 70's was all about population growth and the boomers all coming to age at the same time and buying everything in sight. Millennials average age is 32 this year and they have entered that buy everything in sight mode as they bought homes and starting to have kids (which are expensive). The reason why I say this is like the 1950's is because so much of the industrial base is coming back to North America and the US from China and Europe. Along I-85 here between Charlotte and Atlanta is booming with industrial construction.

So in other words in short words, Labor is getting more power, management is going to have to earn their paycheck, and if you are in Gen X (Me) you are about to get really paid as you are about to be in real demand for your skills.
 
Interesting quote...Economic inequality this decade will largely be defined by those who bought homes before 2022 and those who didn’t, per Bloomberg.

I bought my first house in 2000 and I think my rate was 6.5%. I know it may be tough to buy a house now knowing a year ago rates were 3%....but in time people will accept that 6.5% mort rate is still subsidized by the govt.
 
KyloG said:
Interesting quote...Economic inequality this decade will largely be defined by those who bought homes before 2022 and those who didn’t, per Bloomberg.

I bought my first house in 2000 and I think my rate was 6.5%. I know it may be tough to buy a house now knowing a year ago rates were 3%....but in time people will accept that 6.5% mort rate is still subsidized by the govt.
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Since 2000, median home prices in the U.S. have increased by nearly 160 percent. Owning your own home just isn’t feasible for a lot of people anymore. Especially our younger generations.
 
Just a sick move by mm's....they rip it down right at open, below yesterday's low, clear stops, and then run it up. Good thing I bought the dip...

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KyloG said:
Just a sick move by mm's....they rip it down right at open, below yesterday's low, clear stops, and then run it up. Good thing I bought the dip...

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LOL...they love to do this. The ole rip her down and clear out stops and then let it run. I had a stop in but was much lower for this very reason.

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I started a position in Googl in long term IRA here. It has a gap to fill down to $96 form early last year that I would prefer to buy there but starting one now to keep it on my radar.

I don't have any sort of stop set yet, position is small enough that I am ok if this goes down to $80 or something.

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Rain Cold said:
Under. Everyone is betting on a rally.
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Osc are moderately over sold...we get a reversal and hard sell off this afternoon into tomorrow they will get back into very over sold range. That wouldn't be worst thing. Would be nice to retest June lows and see how market reacts.

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KyloG said:
I started a position in Googl in long term IRA here. It has a gap to fill down to $96 form early last year that I would prefer to buy there but starting one now to keep it on my radar.

I don't have any sort of stop set yet, position is small enough that I am ok if this goes down to $80 or something.

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Seeing many note this...?‍♂️

If market is going to rally the beat up best of breed names should out perform (GOOGL/NVDA/AMD/MSFT/ADBE) to name a few.

 
AMD past week + been chopping around making lower highs but finally could be breaking out.

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