Wanted to get this off my chest before the reading comes out…
The headline version of CPI does measure food/fuel in some kind of way. It just doesn’t do so in a way that satisfies most at all and does in a strange way in some ways (like I think I saw that the fuel measurement is only the second week of the month).
BLS might as well return to how they measured inflation in the 80s because they have a lot of crying with how they measure it now, and it’d mean that the Fed can’t go off PCE to measure…lol in all honesty I still think a lot of what they’re doing is jawboning (as I don’t think you can take rates to where they were in the 80s without severe consequences).
I will say headline will be 8.8-9 YoY, and SPX ends today lower than 3700.
Being a contrarian edge lord has failed this year so I’m not going to be here.
The thing that I will be contrarian on is the long end though. It’s looking like the Fed has lost control of it. I’m guessing we see it rise here, but the ten year doesn’t get higher than 3.5 before it goes back down.
If I’m right about how I think it’s going to act, it’s generally bad news for the I want the Fed to stay tough camp, but we’ll have to wait and see here…