Y’all had a good run. Look at that daily candle..oof
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
Fed signaled they plan to taper before the end of the year which triggered the dump. Where the market goes from here is gonna be interesting.
Bombs away
Nuked
TA charts and wave counts are useless in this market, change my mind
Broken024
Member
Sike
Less than ideal here. Figured they’d get it back above the daily signal but didn’t even get close with that morning pump..
Lol, psyche canceled for now. Let’s try this again.
Broken024
Member
Haha wild
GeorgiaGirl
Member
That's probably not it for your third monthly OPEX crap show in a row. There's still a really good chance that the 50 day gets tagged in SPX imo.
The question is what happens after that. The 50 day tags that happened near OPEX (maybe a breach below in June as well), marked the end of the selling in June and July after deking everybody in the process.
I know because I've allowed myself to get deked and I'm going to use everything I have to try to avoid getting deked again...I'm waiting until next week, and probably not on Monday either, to make my own judgement call.
There are some differences between here and then though, with technicals and things happening in the outside world however:
1. During those past couple 50 day tags, S&P futures did not flip bearish until the 50 day. They apparently flipped bearish yesterday at breaking the 20 day.
2. IWM is arguably in more trouble than it was around July 19th, and today there has not been the dip buying that you saw from then in smalls. If it has a weekly close around where it's at, it's a sell signal.
3. S&P equal-weighted and the Dow both tried to break out of a 3-4 month consolidation in the first couple weeks of August, and that breakout failed quickly. Breakout fails can easily go the other way fast and you're seeing all of the value stock pops get sold today.
4. The Afghanistan sh*t could undermine confidence.
5. The Fed...although I'm not sure why yesterday was that big of a shock if it was to anybody because the June meeting moved up the first rate hike to 2023 and they've been rolling out governors giving their opinion about what to do with the taper for a while. I wouldn't be so sure that yesterday was about them catching "those big guys" off guard, even though that will be the narrative, because gamma unwinds near options expiring all year have been sh*t shows in the market.
The question is what happens after that. The 50 day tags that happened near OPEX (maybe a breach below in June as well), marked the end of the selling in June and July after deking everybody in the process.
I know because I've allowed myself to get deked and I'm going to use everything I have to try to avoid getting deked again...I'm waiting until next week, and probably not on Monday either, to make my own judgement call.
There are some differences between here and then though, with technicals and things happening in the outside world however:
1. During those past couple 50 day tags, S&P futures did not flip bearish until the 50 day. They apparently flipped bearish yesterday at breaking the 20 day.
2. IWM is arguably in more trouble than it was around July 19th, and today there has not been the dip buying that you saw from then in smalls. If it has a weekly close around where it's at, it's a sell signal.
3. S&P equal-weighted and the Dow both tried to break out of a 3-4 month consolidation in the first couple weeks of August, and that breakout failed quickly. Breakout fails can easily go the other way fast and you're seeing all of the value stock pops get sold today.
4. The Afghanistan sh*t could undermine confidence.
5. The Fed...although I'm not sure why yesterday was that big of a shock if it was to anybody because the June meeting moved up the first rate hike to 2023 and they've been rolling out governors giving their opinion about what to do with the taper for a while. I wouldn't be so sure that yesterday was about them catching "those big guys" off guard, even though that will be the narrative, because gamma unwinds near options expiring all year have been sh*t shows in the market.
The broad stock markets tend to rise in the longer term. That "technical" trumps all imo.
Invest a decent % of portfolio in a broad spectrum of mostly high quality stocks, but lighten up gradually as get older and move toward a higher % of more high dividend/income stocks then. Use only a small % of portfolio for "playing" highly speculative stocks and timing the market, money that one can afford to completely lose. Trying to time the market in and out is very hard. The best thing to do if not already in and markets are near highs is to dollar cost average so that one doesn't risk putting all of their equities money in near a high.
Those are my thoughts fwiw, which hopefully are at least worth the price to read them here lol.
Last edited:
Mayday mayday! Abandon ship
PUMP
Sandbar
Member
SOFI anybody? Where is the bottom?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'd have saved some brain cells if I didn't watch that whipsaw.
What I did see tells me that what happened during the June expiration is probable tomorrow. The cyclical sectors got sold on every pop. Pretty incredible.
Still would guess that it will end up being too much for seemingly the millionth time, but we shall see.
What I did see tells me that what happened during the June expiration is probable tomorrow. The cyclical sectors got sold on every pop. Pretty incredible.
Still would guess that it will end up being too much for seemingly the millionth time, but we shall see.
Last edited:
Broken024
Member
Hopefully not much lower. I'm short 2 $15 puts. Looked like free money at the time.
Most of us don't know what a June 18-esq day is. Like when people say, this or that reminds me of late afternoon on February 12, 1987, we don't know what's being referenced. What happened on June 18? And how is today like that. And what does that mean is likely to happen tomorrow.
NQ (tech) futures. We have these huge sell offs and then V shape bounce that rips the shorts but trend is still down. I’m out….I moved to 95% cash on Tuesday in all my accounts and I have nothing on in my swing trade account. I was going to rebalance my IRA’s anyways so figured how was a good time.
I went full tilt after Costco today. I went heavy short yesterday and was up big, closed half before close. It was $435 in pre-market and I blinked and it was at ATH’s. Ended up closing the other half with small loss…net was a win but still very frustrated.
