• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Stock Market

The ARKK and Nasdaq test is about to happen again it looks like, because as of right now I'm going to call the ARKK weakness another rejection in an area where it rejected seemingly a million times in the spring after that 10%+ Nasdaq correction ended.

If ARKK is indeed reversing here, when it reversed in late April, that Nasdaq rally halted. So, it will be interesting to see what happens then. Does it reversing signal another halt to a Nasdaq rally, or will it just not matter for now?

To add on to that, the chart for the Nasdaq is pretty good as long as the NDX is above where it broke out, but if ARKK doesn't get moving on the other hand, the ARKK ETF not really in great shape (could just be a big bear flag).
 
Last edited:
Since I'm bored and baseball is boring/sucky today (even though it's not 11-1 bad like yesterday), here are some charts with my thoughts:

ARKK chart.png

ARKK. Had a nice rebound off being extremely oversold but like I said this afternoon, appears to have rejected again for the fourth time in the range it made it up to. You can't see it since I drew a line lol, but it printed three black crows and that's a reversal pattern. Rest of my thoughts are in my first post today.

NDX.png

The Nasdaq-100 with a textbook breakout out of the range it had been stuck in for a while a couple weeks back. I don't like the volatility the index had today, so it could come in, but it has a ways to go before there'd be reason to worry. Up over 20% in the past nearly 4 months, even though there was a waffle in May, which is pretty incredible.

Dow ETF.png

The Dow ETF. Since the breakdown a few weeks ago was fake, this is arguably a bull flag or simply consolidation until it's not (I will be stricter and say that the consolidation idea is valid at the June low and above, but you can apparently stretch it further). Made a lower low just like the fall too before it reversed. The problems here are:

1. The way value stocks are behaving isn't really backing up what it's done. They rebounded from being routed but not as much as the Dow did.

2. The way TNX is behaving.
 
Today's volatility is kind of disgusting. Kind of feels like that day before that first Thursday of September last year, although with that day, it was mainly Nasdaq based, today it's all three of the major averages, smalls just completely tanking for an hour and then reversing over the next near 2 hours, and growth stocks getting hammered.

Makes me sort of think the Fed notes that are incoming in less than 10 minutes are probably hawkish.

Edit: Nevermind. Makes me wonder what's up then.
 
Last edited:
I have a feeling that tomorrow (and it would've on the gap up too) will be the day that SQQQ works because most of the stocks on the Nasdaq just aren't getting bid at all.

Not something I'll play, but it's a feeling. If mega-cap tech lets go, **** may get ugly.

But I still for the most part don't feel like it's a start of something, unless what ARKK is doing is telling us something like it did in late April. The Nasdaq is probably going to turn out a day where it loses 2% randomly fairly soon given what I'm observing and then we'll move forward from there.
 
Last edited:
GeorgiaGirl said:
I have a feeling that tomorrow (and it would've on the gap up too) will be the day that SQQQ works because most of the stocks on the Nasdaq just aren't getting bid at all.

Not something I'll play, but it's a feeling. If mega-cap tech lets go, **** may get ugly.

But I still for the most part don't feel like it's a start of something, unless what ARKK is doing is telling us something like it did in late April. It's probably going to turn out a day that it loses 2% randomly fairly soon given what I'm observing and then we'll move forward from there.
Click to expand...
Is ARKK the main focus of your investments?
 
Just buy. Don't need to be longer than that.
 
If this morning was "it" on the cyclical selling, then what I thought was going to happen a few weeks back (a kind of violent switch intraday on leadership underneath) happened yesterday.

Regardless, this probably isn't done until Tuesday and likely becomes the 6th "too much, too fast" ultimately baby dip.

Edit: Still have a long way to go though on the day.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If this morning was "it" on the cyclical selling, then what I thought was going to happen a few weeks back (a kind of violent switch intraday on leadership underneath) happened yesterday.

Regardless, this probably isn't done until Tuesday and likely becomes the 6th "too much, too fast" ultimately baby dip.

Edit: Still have a long way to go though on the day.
Click to expand...
The baby dip switchbacks have outnumbered the lead rotations by a good bit, over the last quarter or so. It hit me this morning (and a few times last week but I just didn't get that strong of a vibe back then) that the volatility increases on these fake quote-unquote rug-pulls, only to turn out to be turn-arounds within hours or even a day, are momo darts for the day trader crowd, moreso than the actual tells that will happen when you see them coincident with breadth indicator deterioration. We'll see, but I suspect we'll cycle back around with the reflation slash dip-fakeout again soon.

Edited to fix a typo
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top