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Misc Stock Market

I agree
In the middle of a booming recovery? I feel like we’ll see one but shooooo it will be a while. The market will roar for some time I think.
I agree, but, maybe the middle of next year, we will see a downward slide. The next lagging quarter reports should be good. But, after those, the market will back to normal. Just a SWAG from me of course. Also, some of the numbers are showing inflation. But, one unusual item to consider is the housing shortage and building supplies.
bingo. New neighborhoods around my area are at a standstill. They’ve piled dirt in front of the entrance to the neighborhood being built near our family farm. Lumber prices are too high to continue the build I’m afraid.
100% correct, the prices of homes are leaving first time home owners in the dirt. Which hurts many professions like realtors, tile installing people, drywall, mortgage workers, lawyers, roofers and etc..... Also, there should be more supply issues , like the up coming vinyl siding shortage. So a bubble is forming in that sector, but, should not be as bad as 2008.
 
I agree
I agree, but, maybe the middle of next year, we will see a downward slide. The next lagging quarter reports should be good. But, after those, the market will back to normal. Just a SWAG from me of course. Also, some of the numbers are showing inflation. But, one unusual item to consider is the housing shortage and building supplies.
100% correct, the prices of homes are leaving first time home owners in the dirt. Which hurts many professions like realtors, tile installing people, drywall, mortgage workers, lawyers, roofers and etc..... Also, there should be more supply issues , like the up coming vinyl siding shortage. So a bubble is forming in that sector, but, should not be as bad as 2008.
To the moon. Housing crisis 2.0?0764015A-22CE-4493-8B47-3D089A5C2C37.png
 
I’m still really heavy in many stocks right now but started taking some profits. I had wanted to have a weed play and decided to go with $GRWG, I picked up some shares at $46 when it reclaimed the 100dma a couple of weeks ago. It’s not a spec play, it has strong revenue growth and theyraised guidance. They sell the tools and such that helps grow the weed.



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I’m still really heavy in many stocks right now but started taking some profits. I had wanted to have a weed play and decided to go with $GRWG, I picked up some shares at $46 when it reclaimed the 100dma a couple of weeks ago. It’s not a spec play, it has strong revenue growth and theyraised guidance. They sell the tools and such that helps grow the weed.



View attachment 81588
You should buy MCOA. It’s been a real moneymaker for @Rain Cold ?
 
To the moon. Housing crisis 2.0?View attachment 81589
Which equals to $12,000 to 14,000 per 1000sqft of house. Could even be $15,000 now. The shortages or in earth movers, windows, doors, wood, and some fixtures. But, a main pressure is the shortage of homes. Many builders can't build them fast enough and or jacking up the prices in this sellers market.
 
I saw Apple consolidate at $116 , with earnings in a few weeks.and people perception of not wanting to miss out on big numbers.... I decided to buy the rumor to sell the news
 
I saw Apple consolidate at $116 , with earnings in a few weeks.and people perception of not wanting to miss out on big numbers.... I decided to buy the rumor to sell the news

and I sold apple today. Lol. Maybe a mistake...but I didn’t want to hold long term and there’s not really a catalyst for apple in the near term. I find it hard to believe it will roar back to 145 by earnings but maybe I’m wrong. I hate holding stocks through earnings too, I have the worst luck and I always get burned.

I have a feeling big tech will bleed again. Tesla 30% off ATH was definitely not enough and it’s hard to believe that was the bottom. I’d think 50% from ATH was due and it didn’t happen. Talk about a bubble stock.
 
This one gives me pause View attachment 81585

It should right? I mean, the market today is unlike anything we’ve seen given the circumstances...we can try to compare it historically but behaviors just aren’t the same.

I’m struggling where to put my cash for a 1yr+ hold after maxing out my Roth. This market just seems all over the place and recovery stocks seem overbought but really a lot of them are 20% off their levels pre-covid, but a lot of those companies also have debt from all the cash burn. It’s just a tough market right now. I miss the last few years when literally any tech company was a good pick.
 
bingo. New neighborhoods around my area are at a standstill. They’ve piled dirt in front of the entrance to the neighborhood being built near our family farm. Lumber prices are too high to continue the build I’m afraid.
I've been under a rock I guess about building supplies, found out Saturday when I went to Lowe's to get one lousy sheet of plywood.....cheapest they had was $50!! That's just stupid and have no idea how anyone can afford construction at those prices
 
I bought $PFE a few week ago at low $35’s. Great dividend, and been holding $33-$36 for a long time now. I think it could make a move to $40, slow mover though. It’s vaccines should drive strong earnings for a while.

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If you look at the SPY index itself though it's been sector rotation that's been driving it higher which is a worst case scenario for the bears. Below is top 20 SPY holdings...many of these have been consolidating and trading in a channel for many months and are not at ATH's. The only one in this list that needs a rest is $HD. $TSLA is still 30% off it's ATH's....CRM and PYPL are 25% off it's ATH's. Apple 15% off ATH's and had one of it's best earnings last q. ADBE is still trading at it's highs from last July...actually probably a good stock to add, it looks ready to go.

I went balls deep long a couple of weeks ago and I've trimmed some but if the market tanks it's going to hurt. I'm fairly diversified though.

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$AMZN weekly chart...been trading sideways since last June/July. If it decides to make new ATH's then the SPY/Q's are going to keep going. If AMZN announced a stock split it will go nuts and so will tech. Apple just had strong break of it's August high with volume. ADBE looks great...I may add that Monday.

Screen Shot 2021-04-09 at 5.09.35 PM.png


few other holdings that have been trading sideways, these are all top 10 holdings in SPY and if they decide to make new highs...

sc-1.pngScreen Shot 2021-04-09 at 5.11.38 PM.pngScreen Shot 2021-04-09 at 5.11.01 PM.pngScreen Shot 2021-04-09 at 5.13.44 PM.png
 
The rotations have been happening almost every single day. Break them consistently instead of every now and then (break it like March 4th for example) or the market stays asleep and the VIX will remain relaxed compared to how it behaved up to early March.

Edit: Should also add, my spidey senses are tingling a bit, but I'll wait for confirmation. This SPX move is as insane as the one in late August/early September, but the VIX rose with that move. It hasn't risen with this move.
 
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Diversification saved me today...flat. DKNG and my spec BIO’s got hammered. But, Tesla, SQ and FedEx saved me. PFE was solid too.

BIO’s been getting crushed...bounce time? Right at the 50w

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I was wondering for a bit, but that ended up being the 12th green candle in a row for SPY (although SPX was down 0.02).

but boo no fireworks. I was looking for some more fireworks and then some red after that.

I think that's likely to be it for now. What SPX has been doing is not bearish generally but some red candles are definitely likely. Question is if the rotations going on underneath keep going on for now. What energy did today didn't fill me with confidence, but it's a wait and see given that the 2021 story has been one area covering up another.
 
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