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Misc Stock Market

Holy smokes...

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severestorm said:
I thought about tesla, but with rare earth materials doubling or more, Tesla's will have to dramatically increase in price and price out a significant section of the economy. Their earnings and profits are going to go down.
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Elon keeps raising prices of his cars. And if Biden gets the $7500 tax credit approved that will go straight into Elons pocket…he will just raise prices of cars again.

But yeah, I agree. Rates going up, cost of buying a car will keep going up. So far Elon has avoided impact but eventually it will catch up.
 
superjames1992 said:
Insane. Freaking Federal Reserve pumping up the value of asset prices and screwing over the younger generation, what else is new. So frustrating…
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And rates are back to 2019 level but house prices are up 30%. How’s that going to work….

 
superjames1992 said:
Maybe I should’ve just unloaded my April QQQ puts yesterday at close for a loss. Didn’t expect more green today. Hmm.

Also starting to debate my large cash position after the last couple days. The market doesn’t seem to care about interest rates going up as much as I expected.
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Yes this is why they say "time in the market is better than timing the market." Not that I am following that mantra. I have a good bit of dry powder I am looking to deploy as well. Wanted to see a lower correction before entering that money in, but I am starting to doubt myself. I am just curious to see how rate hikes later in the year effect the market. Although the Fed already advised there will be 6 hikes this year so maybe the market already digested and doesn't give a damn? I feel like its going to take a surprise 100 bps hike in one the announcements to do anything, which I don't think is going to happen.
 
KyloG said:
And rates are back to 2019 level but house prices are up 30%. How’s that going to work….

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Gotta think all those people who FOMOed into the housing market with stretched budgets already must be close to eviction at this point with the costs of everything else going up.
 
DE trying to push through major resistance. Weekly chart

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Trimmed a little OXY at $57.80 from $55. Feels like it wants to break above $58 though...

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SPY trying to reclaim the 50dema. Rejected hard in early Feb.

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Quad witching tomorrow . Thoughts ? 4th Green Day in a row or are they gonna rug us ?


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KyloG said:
And rates are back to 2019 level but house prices are up 30%. How’s that going to work….

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Yeah, half rooting for a housing crash, despite all that entails, at this point as a prospective first time home buyer looking to buy in the next year or two…
 
buckinbronco said:
Yes this is why they say "time in the market is better than timing the market." Not that I am following that mantra. I have a good bit of dry powder I am looking to deploy as well. Wanted to see a lower correction before entering that money in, but I am starting to doubt myself. I am just curious to see how rate hikes later in the year effect the market. Although the Fed already advised there will be 6 hikes this year so maybe the market already digested and doesn't give a damn? I feel like its going to take a surprise 100 bps hike in one the announcements to do anything, which I don't think is going to happen.
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Yeah, I generally abide by the time in the market mantra (and indeed my 401k has been very much in the market all along), but I was reshuffling some stuff around in my Roth IRA a while back and decided to wait a bit before buying back in while I decide my long-term allocation since it seemed like we might have continued to drop for a while. Probably will burn me in the end, though. ?

And my brokerage account is something I trade too much, but it’s a small position that I’m not really adding to at this point. I should probably just buy VTI/VXUS and never touch it again if I knew what was good for me, though, LOL.

I’m in one of those situations where like 80% of my net worth is in retirement assets right now, which is nice, but doesn’t help my short term goals like buying a house! I actually scaled back my 401k contributions to the match this month so I can start building up a larger cash position for a future downpayment.
 
Engulfing weekly candle on the Q’s. Tough not to be bullish, at least for the next few weeks.

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KyloG said:
Added the $AMD $112 calls for tomorrow expiration for $1. Just 5....stop below $.70. I suck so bad at these lotto's.
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Added 5 more of these at $1 earlier. 10 for tomorrow….come on AMD. Lotto Friday
 
Storm5 said:
Quad witching tomorrow . Thoughts ? 4th Green Day in a row or are they gonna rug us ?


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It seems like we should be red, but I thought that today. I’m clearly an idiot as my April put is going further down the drain. Maybe I should just give up and sell it.
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, I generally abide by the time in the market mantra (and indeed my 401k has been very much in the market all along), but I was reshuffling some stuff around in my Roth IRA a while back and decided to wait a bit before buying back in while I decide my long-term allocation since it seemed like we might have continued to drop for a while. Probably will burn me in the end, though. ?

And my brokerage account is something I trade too much, but it’s a small position that I’m not really adding to at this point. I should probably just buy VTI/VXUS and never touch it again if I knew what was good for me, though, LOL.

I’m in one of those situations where like 80% of my net worth is in retirement assets right now, which is nice, but doesn’t help my short term goals like buying a house! I actually scaled back my 401k contributions to the match this month so I can start building up a larger cash position for a future downpayment.
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Same, 401k comes straight of the paycheck and I never look at it again. I've been holding my 2021 AND 2022 IRA contribution money for a bigger downturn, and same as you it will probably bite me. You don't even want to see my play brokerage account, its closer to WSB investing then passive investing lol.

As far as the house purchase, I feel for you. Luckily I bought my first home in 2016 and while it wasn't a "buyer's market" then, it is no where near a bad as it is now for buyers.

Remember with the Roth IRA you can withdraw contributions anytime penalty free, just can't touch the earnings. Could be a solution for your cash need for down payment. Of course you would be robbing from future earnings in your Roth by withdrawing contributions. Just depends on how much you want to buy a house and whether you believe the home values will continue their upward trajectory.
 
As long as something crazy doesn't happen tomorrow, the S&P is a good spot for the first time since early February. If a down day happens, fine. I didn't think today was going to end like it did anyway.

Now if whether that sticks is a better question. If it can break 4420 and close there at some point next week, we're probably headed to 4580. Take it from there if so.
 
Futs bleeding. You put holders getting paid tomorrow ?

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Markets would go into utter chaos if the Fed Funds rate hits 3%. It’s been 15 years since it’s been that high.

 
Can’t imagine SPY closing above $440 nor closing below $435. A pin to $440 seems likely though, but we shall see.

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Depending on how the next six weeks or so go (resolution in Ukraine and credit settles down) I do think we could see 50 bps in early May and then pause after that.

But Bullard needs a filibuster as far as I care for talking too much.
 
Bullard is doing what he's supposed to do...playing the bad cop. It's a good strategy that has been working well, so I doubt it changes anytime soon. You have to have an authority play the bad cop role in order to create enough worry to provide relief when the "worst case" doesn't happen.

Virtually everything these people say and so is an orchestrated effort to shape perception and drive a response. None of it is random, one-off, rogue opinion.

It's the same here as it is with Ukraine, Covid, climate, or any other major issue that takes center stage st any given time.
 
FB running into resistance....Apple/MSFT keep the indexes from really getting ugly and maybe the laggards such as FB rally a little more if the markets are to keep pushing higher.

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KyloG said:
Added 5 more of these at $1 earlier. 10 for tomorrow….come on AMD. Lotto Friday
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Closed half of these at $1.50. Letting the other half run into close...but with stop at $.95.
 
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