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Misc Stock Market

Guys buying the puts are making the cash in this topsy turvy market right now. Will we get a semblance of a Santa Claus rally soon? I’m a little interested in a quick call scalp in docu after being down nearly a hundo yesterday
 
So, my take is that if the S&P can stay at or above 4450 until next week, the chance of a year end rally is there.

Below, and it’ll be a limp to the finish line no matter what most likely.

This doesn’t have to do with technical analysis, it has to do with that JHEQX strike that is sitting at 4450. It proved problematic in September until it was rolled. As long as we stay above, and the Fed doesn’t prove too surprising (would going to cutting by 30 in January really be that surprising? Honestly, I don’t think so, as I thought it was possible even before that statement on Tuesday last week), I think we end up seeing volatility get crushed, and that will be what fuels it.

Yes, this would qualify as a blog post, lol.
 
Anybody that was still short on the Nasdaq after yesterday's reversal got blown out starting late last night. Good grief.

The Russell too.
 
Broken024 said:
Asset inflation from easy money policies would be my guess. No where to put money outside of stonks or real estate.
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What about including a basket of commodities in portfolios via ETFs?

In addition, I’m extra curious about natural gas for the shorter term (say for several weeks). Many indications are suggesting high population areas of the E and C US (especially up north) will likely turn much colder late month than the current ridiculous warmth. Many CFS runs as well as MJO based climo suggest this cold dominating for several weeks. I’m wondering if a short term investment in a NG price based ETF would be a good risk now because they plunged in late November and early December largely due to the current unusual warmth. Combined with this is a secondary factor, colder also modeled to return to Europe at about the same time and continuing at least into early January. European temps, though not nearly as important as US temps, are somewhat of a factor due to a big increase in exports to there.

Commodity price based ETFs are very risky though and aren’t meant to be held longterm because they may tend to drop in the long term. So, this would need to be money you could afford to lose a large portion of. But this is a way to hedge against inflation and NG has recently fallen so much.
 
Uhhh the Russell 2000 kinda needs to have a real bounce or else it can really waterfall down.

I know morning can say something that is completely different but given the circumstances (this is almost certainly not related to the Fed this time or Manchin), I have no confidence in that happening.
 
20wema has been great support for the S&P this year. Next year we are going to be done with QE by March and staring in the face of multiple rate hikes with no govt stimulus coming. Well, unless Biden gets support for BBB program. Would think it would be rather tricky next year.
 

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GeorgiaGirl said:
I wonder if the S&P's dance with the 4k line or maybe a little higher is going to end up turning into something similar to what was seen in 2019 where it was extremely tough to crack 3k. It ended up turning back about 5 points from it in the middle of the day.

It'll likely get there and perhaps beyond next week with good structural flows, but I could see a case where it gets to the "beyond" and then finally corrects not long after that, what will need to be watched is how other parts of the market does, especially the transports (as that's a good lead indicator in the case of the Dow, it looked great yesterday but not so good today, although today was only one day). If they're slack, it's a likely flag that builds on the flag that small caps honestly might be done here...
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I can't say at this moment that I would've thought that 4800 was going to be tagged this year. I thought 4500...maybe...with a bit more give and take than what was seen. But even though this was a good year, I could feel the greed in me...I wanted to finish at 4800 instead of just tagging it to wrap up the year.

Now, what do I think happens in 2022?

Not this.

I don't see a crash though (bear market maybe in technical terms, crash, nah). I feel as if there's serious risk of another 2018-esque year, but if not that, you're probably going into another 2014-2016 like period.

Honestly, it would be fitting to trend sideways for a while when you have people expecting a big move in one direction or another.
 
KyloG said:
Fed meeting mins was a disaster for the markets. Earlier rate hikes…but the biggie is balance sheet reductions coming. They have $9T on there balance sheet. How in the world can they reduce that without causing armageddon.
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Ignorant question here.. is there a way to see what that $9T is made up of?
 
The Fed reduced it's balance sheet by $600B in 2018 before having to reverse course. The market was very choppy during that time, had a 13% and 20% market pull backs. It ended in Sept 2019 at which point they started QE again and market took off.

Since than they have added $5T to there balance sheet. Can you imagine what the markets are going to do if they reduce 30% of that.

Yellow box encompasses when balance sheet reduction started and ended. Taper was already done but they were hiking rates during this time. So it's similar.


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KyloG said:
The Fed reduced it's balance sheet by $600B in 2018 before having to reverse course. The market was very choppy during that time, had a 13% and 20% market pull backs. It ended in Sept 2019 at which point they started QE again and market took off.

Since than they have added $5T to there balance sheet. Can you imagine what the markets are going to do if they reduce 30% of that.

Yellow box encompasses when balance sheet reduction started and ended. Taper was already done but they were hiking rates during this time. So it's similar.


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So drop my entire IRA in spy puts?
 
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