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Misc Stock Market

$clov running again. Got in after hours let’s see where she goes.

Have $16 calls for $open.

Today should be a good day!
 
Jon said:
Sold my $open calls at 326%, best call profit yet! What a rush. Reminds me why I do this. Lol
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I was short an open $15 put. Nice ~$100 premium. Thought I was going to get assigned when it was trading below 15 for the last week or so.
 
Volatility in the major indices probably picks up next week into the Monday after (potentially) with the monthly options expiring, like last month and June, but until proven otherwise, it’ll probably just be one of those fast pullback moves.

Speaking of which…

I will not let myself get fooled by an options expiring move.
I will not let myself get fooled by an options expiring
I will not let myself get fooled by an options
I will not let myself get fooled by an
I will not let myself get fooled by
I will not let myself get fooled
I will not let myself get
I will not let myself
I will not
 
They were laughing at analysts at the beginning of the year for calling SPY 425 by EOY. Now here we are approaching 450. This can’t and won’t end well.
 
I swear, when you see cyclicals flushed like what was seen in the first 10 minutes today either at the open or at any point fairly early, they end up ending nowhere near there or lower like 9 times out of 10 and at least at this point, this is going to be the case no matter what today.

I do wonder if this has staying power though, probably doesn't without a rebound in yields.
 
Closed my eyes and finally sold a cash secured put for the first time after giving it a lot of consideration.

Finally looked a few minutes ago and honestly everything I saw made sense to me.

The put that I sold was an AMAT $120 put at 1.90 that expires September 3rd and my only regret is that I didn't put the strike at 2 dollars. My hope is that the Nasdaq and semis reverse next week (I haven't expressed it but I had a weird feeling there after last week), but if not, I can take the assignment.
 
Good day for my portfolio, I find when the market is unstable that dividend plays seem to be a bit of a safe haven and then day trading any runners and OTC stocks can yield a green day when the market is like this. AUNXF was my big winner today, accumulating DRNG for the upcoming dividend run by the end of the month. Holding UAMM waiting for a pop, same for APTY, KRFG and KATX.

Btw USA is one of my favorite dividend plays. It is a closed end fund and pays a nice 9-10% dividend. On top of that over the past 10 years it has averaged returns of 15%. So far YTD it is up 27% and that doesn't include the dividends paid out. AB and RYLD are two other nice dividend plays I like a lot. USA will have a rights offering coming up for existing shareholders so the price will likely drop a bit when that happens into the $7.80-8.20 range and I plan to add more if that happens.
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metwannabe said:
I don't really understand calls and puts but I do know there are some huge expectations for Sept. Curious to see how this plays out

In fact, can you explain that chart to me like I'm 2? Lol
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hey sorry, I missed this...I went on vacation and took a break from trading.

Trust me...the last thing you want to get into is options trading :)
 
Less than ideal here. Figured they’d get it back above the daily signal but didn’t even get close with that morning pump..3CFF5EA0-E80C-47A9-936F-5D67932D78C4.png
 
That's probably not it for your third monthly OPEX crap show in a row. There's still a really good chance that the 50 day gets tagged in SPX imo.

The question is what happens after that. The 50 day tags that happened near OPEX (maybe a breach below in June as well), marked the end of the selling in June and July after deking everybody in the process.

I know because I've allowed myself to get deked and I'm going to use everything I have to try to avoid getting deked again...I'm waiting until next week, and probably not on Monday either, to make my own judgement call.

There are some differences between here and then though, with technicals and things happening in the outside world however:

1. During those past couple 50 day tags, S&P futures did not flip bearish until the 50 day. They apparently flipped bearish yesterday at breaking the 20 day.
2. IWM is arguably in more trouble than it was around July 19th, and today there has not been the dip buying that you saw from then in smalls. If it has a weekly close around where it's at, it's a sell signal.
3. S&P equal-weighted and the Dow both tried to break out of a 3-4 month consolidation in the first couple weeks of August, and that breakout failed quickly. Breakout fails can easily go the other way fast and you're seeing all of the value stock pops get sold today.
4. The Afghanistan sh*t could undermine confidence.
5. The Fed...although I'm not sure why yesterday was that big of a shock if it was to anybody because the June meeting moved up the first rate hike to 2023 and they've been rolling out governors giving their opinion about what to do with the taper for a while. I wouldn't be so sure that yesterday was about them catching "those big guys" off guard, even though that will be the narrative, because gamma unwinds near options expiring all year have been sh*t shows in the market.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
That's probably not it for your third monthly OPEX crap show in a row. There's still a really good chance that the 50 day gets tagged in SPX imo.

The question is what happens after that. The 50 day tags that happened near OPEX (maybe a breach below in June as well), marked the end of the selling in June and July after deking everybody in the process.

I know because I've allowed myself to get deked and I'm going to use everything I have to try to avoid getting deked again...I'm waiting until next week, and probably not on Monday either, to make my own judgement call.

There are some differences between here and then though, with technicals and things happening in the outside world however:

1. During those past couple 50 day tags, S&P futures did not flip bearish until the 50 day. They apparently flipped bearish yesterday at breaking the 20 day.
2. IWM is arguably in more trouble than it was around July 19th, and today there has not been the dip buying that you saw from then in smalls. If it has a weekly close around where it's at, it's a sell signal.
3. S&P equal-weighted and the Dow both tried to break out of a 3-4 month consolidation in the first couple weeks of August, and that breakout failed quickly. Breakout fails can easily go the other way fast and you're seeing all of the value stock pops get sold today.
4. The Afghanistan sh*t could undermine confidence.
5. The Fed...although I'm not sure why yesterday was that big of a shock if it was to anybody because the June meeting moved up the first rate hike to 2023 and they've been rolling out governors giving their opinion about what to do with the taper for a while. I wouldn't be so sure that yesterday was about them catching "those big guys" off guard, even though that will be the narrative, because gamma unwinds near options expiring all year have been sh*t shows in the market.
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The broad stock markets tend to rise in the longer term. That "technical" trumps all imo.

Invest a decent % of portfolio in a broad spectrum of mostly high quality stocks, but lighten up gradually as get older and move toward a higher % of more high dividend/income stocks then. Use only a small % of portfolio for "playing" highly speculative stocks and timing the market, money that one can afford to completely lose. Trying to time the market in and out is very hard. The best thing to do if not already in and markets are near highs is to dollar cost average so that one doesn't risk putting all of their equities money in near a high.

Those are my thoughts fwiw, which hopefully are at least worth the price to read them here lol. :p
 
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I'd have saved some brain cells if I didn't watch that whipsaw.

What I did see tells me that what happened during the June expiration is probable tomorrow. The cyclical sectors got sold on every pop. Pretty incredible.

Still would guess that it will end up being too much for seemingly the millionth time, but we shall see.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
I'd have saved some brain cells if I didn't watch that whipsaw.

What I did see tells me that a June 18th-esque day is probable tomorrow. The cyclical sectors got sold on every pop. Pretty incredible.

Still would guess that it will end up being too much for seemingly the millionth time, but we shall see.
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Most of us don't know what a June 18-esq day is. Like when people say, this or that reminds me of late afternoon on February 12, 1987, we don't know what's being referenced. What happened on June 18? And how is today like that. And what does that mean is likely to happen tomorrow.
 
NQ (tech) futures. We have these huge sell offs and then V shape bounce that rips the shorts but trend is still down. I’m out….I moved to 95% cash on Tuesday in all my accounts and I have nothing on in my swing trade account. I was going to rebalance my IRA’s anyways so figured how was a good time.

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I went full tilt after Costco today. I went heavy short yesterday and was up big, closed half before close. It was $435 in pre-market and I blinked and it was at ATH’s. Ended up closing the other half with small loss…net was a win but still very frustrated.

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