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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

Doesn't sound too bad according to spc they saying a tornado cannot be ruled out on wed
 
Still tons of potential and time to watch it. Also I went ahead and pinned it, getting close enough



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It looks potentially pretty nasty again for places like Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi/westward. Not as bad east of there as of now but still potential for something.

For some context (long range NAM but still):

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Not as many tornado soundings for this one. However a squall line with wind and rain seems more likely across Georgia and Carolinas


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Have to watch how the secondary low develops. Nam doesn't look impressive, but synoptically this event is still eye catching. Too far away from the event too know the true mesoscale features.
 
Just seems mostly might get a damaging wind looks to be a low end event now nws Huntsville says tornado cannot be ruled out
 
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To me the Tornado chance isn’t zero but it’s low. But I do think this will be a nasty squall line with straight line winds and heavy rain


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You know what. 12km 18z nam makes this system look like a derecho will hit alabama which is pretty significant itself. I don't know forecast parameters on derecho but usually its bowed out and that's what the nam shows.any input guys i don't know much about forecasting of derechos. Screenshot_20190415-172322_Samsung Internet.jpg
32km nam below also has it.nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png
 
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Rain Cold said:
I wouldn’t start worrying too much about derechos quite yet. However, a lengthy line of storms with bowing segments seems likely to occur.
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This has potential to be a big flash flood threat in our neck of the woods

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SD said:
I could see this developing into some type of 2 day serial derecho type event

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Exactly what I was thinking, due to moderate-strong height falls/strong low pressure system headed for the GLs and serial derechos are much more common with that type of pattern, a progressive derecho typically happens in the warmer season (for example 2012) where you just get monster downbursts due to dry air aloft/and or inverted Vs combined with some 0-6km bulk shear, serial derechos typically have unidirectional wind profiles and stronger wind shear associated with the strong trough to the west, storms drag down strong winds combined with dry air aloft which can not only have damaging winds, but Also more tornadoes spinups
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Exactly what I was thinking, due to moderate-strong height falls/strong low pressure system headed for the GLs and serial derechos are much more common with that type of pattern, a progressive derecho typically happens in the warmer season (for example 2012) where you just get monster downbursts due to dry air aloft/and or inverted Vs combined with some 0-6km bulk shear, serial derechos typically have unidirectional wind profiles and stronger wind shear associated with the strong trough to the west, storms drag down strong winds combined with dry air aloft which can not only have damaging winds, but Also more tornadoes spinups
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Something to definitely watch seen plenty of high risks days from derecho events. Mainly northwest of the south and in the summer. But nonetheless wind damage ain't a joke especially fallen trees.
 
Zander98al said:
Something to definitely watch seen plenty of high risks days from derecho events. Mainly northwest of the south and in the summer. But nonetheless wind damage ain't a joke especially fallen trees.
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Heck yeah, high risk days are normally issued because of widespread wind damage, derechos ain’t no joke, most of the time the shelf cloud itself looks very menacing
 
Never underestimate the potential danger and destruction from straight line winds/downbursts, which can be 75 mph and as much as 100+ or so in the worst cases meaning the equivalent of up to an F1 to possibly even a low end F2 tornado or cat 2 to low end cat 3 cane winds. Also, damaging straight line winds like in a squall line often cover a larger area.
 
GaWx said:
Never underestimate the potential danger and destruction from straight line winds/downbursts, which can be 75 mph and as much as 100+ or so in the worst cases meaning the equivalent of up to an F1 to possibly even a low end F2 tornado or cat 2 to low end cat 3 cane winds. Also, damaging straight line winds like in a squall line often cover a larger area.
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I hate downbursts, I’ve gotten the most damage from them, only problem in summertime storms, they always tap into that dry air entrainment aloft giving the downdraft extra negative buoyancy, I think it was a day last year where I got some trees knocked down from a microburst (July 21st) I might be wrong but I remember soundings that day having inverted Vs and lots of dry air entrainment combined with DCAPE
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That 00z nam gives a big OOF! to south MS/LA ?. East of there doesn't show much instability which would be the big limiting factor.
 
00z nam still gives the idea of a derecho statewide for alabama. Notice its not linear it looks like a big bowing line segment.Screenshot_20190415-214321_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Brad travis just said one model was showing more CAPE and highs in the 80s here in Alabama but yet instability is low ???
 
We had a nasty micro/macro burst here in southern Greenville County 10 years ago. June 2009. Tons of trees down. It changed the entire landscape of Downtown Fountain inn. We lost tons of old oak trees. That was a wild ride. I’ll never forget it
 
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