NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...
-
Tornado Watch in effect through 9 PM this evening for the Triad
region. Additional convective watches may be needed farther east
later today.
The stage still appears to be set for a notable severe weather
episode across central
NC later this afternoon as the
squall line
currently moving across eastern TN spreads eastward and eventually
moves across our area between 21Z and 02Z this evening. All of this
activity associated with a short wave
trough moving across the Ohio
Valley and a mid-level and upper-level
jet streak lifting E and NE
around the base and eastern side of the
trough.
The main challenge so far today has been the pesky low clouds over
the Piedmont that have been slow to erode. These clouds have held
sfc temps back so far, but now that they are finally eroding, we`re
seeing temps climbing through the 80s across the Piedmont. Areas
east of I-95 have had no problem climbing into the 90s with
HI
values currently approaching 100 in many spots, yet still a couple
degrees shy of
heat index criteria.
The challenge for the rest of this afternoon will be determining to
what extent the aforementioned low clouds may inhibit
CAPE as the
storms cross the mountains and
head toward our
CWA. Despite the
slightly cooler temps than original expected, the overall forcing
for ascent associated with the potent short wave
trough, coupled
with the increasing bulk
shear which is expected to increase to 35-
40kt over our area by the time the storm arrive, should be enough to
overcome any local minimums in
instability to result in
scattered to
numerous damaging thunderstorms with the primary hazard being
damaging wind gusts, but
isold tornadoes and
hail can`t be ruled out
either. A
tornado watch is in effect through 9 PM this evening for
the Triad region. Additional convective watches may be needed
farther east later today.
Storms are expected to exit our
CWA to our east before midnight with
some patches of
stratus and/or
fog developing before sunrise, but
this will
likely depend on where the heaviest rain falls later
today. Lows tonight from the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE.
KRDU seems to still be pretty bullish despite the cloud cover that has inhibited temperatures. Now we'll see if the storms can hold together or redevelop as they cross the mountains.