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Severe Severe Weather Threat 8/7/2023

RBR71

RBR71

Meanager and I don't care
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Just south of Roanoke Rapids, NC
Let'er rip

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Any predictions from anyone? Looks to heat up here quite a bit before the main action starts this evening. Straight line winds look to be bad this evening. Rain and storms as usual will be local driven!
 
Atlanta and much of GA got clocked yesterday as well.

KATL:
There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of thunderstorms with
damaging winds across northern Georgia this afternoon and
evening.

Today & Tonight:

Today is shaping up to be one of those days when hot conditions
come to a crashing end as severe storms roll through. An
unseasonably strong trough will track through the Ohio Valley
today. This will provide the lift and shear necessary to support
storm development and maintenance. Meanwhile, the heat and humidity
ahead of the approaching trough will result in SBCAPE values of
2500 to 4000 j/kg (per HREF guidance), ample fuel for strong
updrafts. Storms are ongoing in an unstable environment across
Tennessee and Kentucky already. As the morning progresses CAM
guidance suggests this activity will gradually congeal into a more
cohesive line, before it becomes more cold pool driven and surges
through northern Georgia this afternoon and evening. Trends in
the HRRR guidance suggest the line of storms will arrive in the
Atlanta Metro between 4 PM and 7 PM. Due largely to the
unseasonably strong shear, there is an above average threat for
widespread damaging winds with the storms today. Wind gusts in the
50 to 70 mph range could occur with the strongest storms, and
peak gusts near 80 mph aren''t out of the realm of possibility. The
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to highlight this
potential wind threat. With gusts of this magnitude, tree and
power line damage can be anticipated in the region.
 
The shear and the mid ninety degree temperatures with dewpoints in the mid seventies have me concerned. CAPE values are also supportive of severe weather. In Southern Wake County these storms will probably roll through not long after the peak heating of the day so the ingredients are there for them to blow up once they get going.
 
jeremyt said:
Any predictions from anyone? Looks to heat up here quite a bit before the main action starts this evening. Straight line winds look to be bad this evening. Rain and storms as usual will be local driven!
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Considering SPC keeps upping their threat level at go time, I think this will pan out! Always leery of what the mountains can do to a good line of storms, but sometimes they re-fire over the piedmont! Somebody gets ping pong sized hail in NC today!
 
Avalanche said:
Referring to the severe that was forecasted yesterday that didn’t result in anything, and SD already calling it a bust based on that performance. In other words, I’ll get a brief shower out of it
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To be fair, I'm sure @SD response of bust was based on a little more than yesterday's performance. Most guidance yesterday favored the western areas and storms diminishing as they moved east. Now he as well as yourself (others in and around C NC) have had numerous "under performers" over the last several weeks that's for sure. Also modeling is still all over the place in this area for today. None really show a solid line moving through, so kinda hit and miss for sure
 
metwannabe said:
To be fair, I'm sure @SD response of bust was based on a little more than yesterday's performance. Most guidance yesterday favored the western areas and storms diminishing as they moved east. Now he as well as yourself (others in and around C NC) have had numerous "under performers" over the last several weeks that's for sure. Also modeling is still all over the place in this area for today. None really show a solid line moving through, so kinda hit and miss for sure
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It'll be easy here for storms to be tied to better forcing N of our area and richer moisture just to our south with a skip in the middle. Doesn't mean that's what happens and obviously SPC and the local NWS offices are bullish on storm formation today. I have my personal concerns with the aerial coverage of the setup but the severe parameters that are in place are impressive and very much so for August that part can't be ignored with anything that forms
 
metwannabe said:
To be fair, I'm sure @SD response of bust was based on a little more than yesterday's performance. Most guidance yesterday favored the western areas and storms diminishing as they moved east. Now he as well as yourself (others in and around C NC) have had numerous "under performers" over the last several weeks that's for sure. Also modeling is still all over the place in this area for today. None really show a solid line moving through, so kinda hit and miss for sure
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The SPC hasn't done that great for this neck of the woods recently. The tornado near Rocky Mount was warned too late, and that happened under a level 1 threat. And the other times when we were under a more elevated threat the storms were always to the south or ended up fizzling out before they got here. I know yesterday the models were all over the place for today's storm chances, and some weren't even showing any storms at all. I guess they are in better agreement today for storms. A level 3 and 4 threat is concerning, so folks definitely need to pay attention to the weather today.
 
SD said:
It'll be easy here for storms to be tied to better forcing N of our area and richer moisture just to our south with a skip in the middle. Doesn't mean that's what happens and obviously SPC and the local NWS offices are bullish on storm formation today. I have my personal concerns with the aerial coverage of the setup but the severe parameters that are in place are impressive and very much so for August that part can't be ignored with anything that forms
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HRRR just started showing the split now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The NAM shows a dying line as it enters the Triangle and a rapidly developing line in the Sandhills as it pushes towards the coast. So yeah, a split. At least we’ll have stratus clouds and some wind.
 
metwannabe said:
To be fair, I'm sure @SD response of bust was based on a little more than yesterday's performance. Most guidance yesterday favored the western areas and storms diminishing as they moved east. Now he as well as yourself (others in and around C NC) have had numerous "under performers" over the last several weeks that's for sure. Also modeling is still all over the place in this area for today. None really show a solid line moving through, so kinda hit and miss for sure
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Models have been beefing things up for my area so it's trying to suck me in.
 
Huge difference between the 06z 3k and 12z 3k for my area near Wilmington

06z vs 12z
 

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Johnkittz said:
Why a severe thunderstorm watch and not a tornado watch? Are the ingredients better up north?
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I’m no where in the expert field. Just know enough to be dangerous. But I would think conditions and placement of the trough. They also expect the line to come together and better organize by the time it gets to us. Again, no expert but that is what I gather.
 
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