Let'er rip
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Severe Severe Weather Threat 8/7/2023
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Bust.
Edit to add I was speaking for my local area not regionally
Edit to add I was speaking for my local area not regionally
Last edited:
Avalanche
Member
tractor girl
Member
It hasn't happened yet
Dew points already mixing out. ?
Avalanche
Member
Referring to the severe that was forecasted yesterday that didn’t result in anything, and SD already calling it a bust based on that performance. In other words, I’ll get a brief shower out of it
jeremyt
Member
Any predictions from anyone? Looks to heat up here quite a bit before the main action starts this evening. Straight line winds look to be bad this evening. Rain and storms as usual will be local driven!
jeremyt
Member
We had a pretty decent afternoon storm yesterday.
Avalanche
Member
Any rain is good rain to me!!!
tractor girl
Member
Replying saying yesterday's storm didn't affect them and thus today's projected storms won't affect them isn't helpful really. Thank goodness science doesn't work off of feeling left out.
jeremyt
Member
My parents are close to SD (SE Harnett) and need rain so I get it
HugeSnowStick
Member
Atlanta and much of GA got clocked yesterday as well.
KATL:
There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of thunderstorms with
damaging winds across northern Georgia this afternoon and
evening.
Today & Tonight:
Today is shaping up to be one of those days when hot conditions
come to a crashing end as severe storms roll through. An
unseasonably strong trough will track through the Ohio Valley
today. This will provide the lift and shear necessary to support
storm development and maintenance. Meanwhile, the heat and humidity
ahead of the approaching trough will result in SBCAPE values of
2500 to 4000 j/kg (per HREF guidance), ample fuel for strong
updrafts. Storms are ongoing in an unstable environment across
Tennessee and Kentucky already. As the morning progresses CAM
guidance suggests this activity will gradually congeal into a more
cohesive line, before it becomes more cold pool driven and surges
through northern Georgia this afternoon and evening. Trends in
the HRRR guidance suggest the line of storms will arrive in the
Atlanta Metro between 4 PM and 7 PM. Due largely to the
unseasonably strong shear, there is an above average threat for
widespread damaging winds with the storms today. Wind gusts in the
50 to 70 mph range could occur with the strongest storms, and
peak gusts near 80 mph aren''t out of the realm of possibility. The
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to highlight this
potential wind threat. With gusts of this magnitude, tree and
power line damage can be anticipated in the region.
KATL:
There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of thunderstorms with
damaging winds across northern Georgia this afternoon and
evening.
Today & Tonight:
Today is shaping up to be one of those days when hot conditions
come to a crashing end as severe storms roll through. An
unseasonably strong trough will track through the Ohio Valley
today. This will provide the lift and shear necessary to support
storm development and maintenance. Meanwhile, the heat and humidity
ahead of the approaching trough will result in SBCAPE values of
2500 to 4000 j/kg (per HREF guidance), ample fuel for strong
updrafts. Storms are ongoing in an unstable environment across
Tennessee and Kentucky already. As the morning progresses CAM
guidance suggests this activity will gradually congeal into a more
cohesive line, before it becomes more cold pool driven and surges
through northern Georgia this afternoon and evening. Trends in
the HRRR guidance suggest the line of storms will arrive in the
Atlanta Metro between 4 PM and 7 PM. Due largely to the
unseasonably strong shear, there is an above average threat for
widespread damaging winds with the storms today. Wind gusts in the
50 to 70 mph range could occur with the strongest storms, and
peak gusts near 80 mph aren''t out of the realm of possibility. The
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to highlight this
potential wind threat. With gusts of this magnitude, tree and
power line damage can be anticipated in the region.
BHS1975
Member
The HRRR did pretty good yesterday showing it fall apart here so it may be on to something today.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
weather bubba
Member
The shear and the mid ninety degree temperatures with dewpoints in the mid seventies have me concerned. CAPE values are also supportive of severe weather. In Southern Wake County these storms will probably roll through not long after the peak heating of the day so the ingredients are there for them to blow up once they get going.
Considering SPC keeps upping their threat level at go time, I think this will pan out! Always leery of what the mountains can do to a good line of storms, but sometimes they re-fire over the piedmont! Somebody gets ping pong sized hail in NC today!
To be fair, I'm sure @SD response of bust was based on a little more than yesterday's performance. Most guidance yesterday favored the western areas and storms diminishing as they moved east. Now he as well as yourself (others in and around C NC) have had numerous "under performers" over the last several weeks that's for sure. Also modeling is still all over the place in this area for today. None really show a solid line moving through, so kinda hit and miss for sure
jeremyt
Member
Definitely weird for summer!
It'll be easy here for storms to be tied to better forcing N of our area and richer moisture just to our south with a skip in the middle. Doesn't mean that's what happens and obviously SPC and the local NWS offices are bullish on storm formation today. I have my personal concerns with the aerial coverage of the setup but the severe parameters that are in place are impressive and very much so for August that part can't be ignored with anything that forms