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Severe Severe Weather Threat 8/7/2023

Am I missing something. Under a heat advisory but it’s 131pm and it’s 79.5 degrees haha.

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Am I missing something. Under a heat advisory but it’s 131pm and it’s 79.5 degrees haha.
That stubborn cloud deck in central part of state setting up some decent temperature differentials, could add a little fuel to the fire
 
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

- Tornado Watch in effect through 9 PM this evening for the Triad
region. Additional convective watches may be needed farther east
later today.

The stage still appears to be set for a notable severe weather
episode across central NC later this afternoon as the squall line
currently moving across eastern TN spreads eastward and eventually
moves across our area between 21Z and 02Z this evening. All of this
activity associated with a short wave trough moving across the Ohio
Valley and a mid-level and upper-level jet streak lifting E and NE
around the base and eastern side of the trough.

The main challenge so far today has been the pesky low clouds over
the Piedmont that have been slow to erode. These clouds have held
sfc temps back so far, but now that they are finally eroding, we`re
seeing temps climbing through the 80s across the Piedmont. Areas
east of I-95 have had no problem climbing into the 90s with HI
values currently approaching 100 in many spots, yet still a couple
degrees shy of heat index criteria.

The challenge for the rest of this afternoon will be determining to
what extent the aforementioned low clouds may inhibit CAPE as the
storms cross the mountains and head toward our CWA. Despite the
slightly cooler temps than original expected, the overall forcing
for ascent associated with the potent short wave trough, coupled
with the increasing bulk shear which is expected to increase to 35-
40kt over our area by the time the storm arrive, should be enough to
overcome any local minimums in instability to result in scattered to
numerous damaging thunderstorms with the primary hazard being
damaging wind gusts, but isold tornadoes and hail can`t be ruled out
either. A tornado watch is in effect through 9 PM this evening for
the Triad region. Additional convective watches may be needed
farther east later today.

Storms are expected to exit our CWA to our east before midnight with
some patches of stratus and/or fog developing before sunrise, but
this will likely depend on where the heaviest rain falls later
today. Lows tonight from the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE.

KRDU seems to still be pretty bullish despite the cloud cover that has inhibited temperatures. Now we'll see if the storms can hold together or redevelop as they cross the mountains.
 
Very good explanation for newbies! Seriously best I’ve ever seen! Some people are visual learners! View attachment 136087
I understand the breakdown, but shouldn't anyone over the age of 18 or so understand and know the differences? I see people all the time saying "Ooo I did not know that" and I wonder how they got that far in life.....

Anyways, warm, humid, and SW wind seems to be blowing a bit. Ready for a disappointment here in JoCo.
 
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