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Severe Severe Weather Threat 8/7/2023

metwannabe said:
To be fair, I'm sure @SD response of bust was based on a little more than yesterday's performance. Most guidance yesterday favored the western areas and storms diminishing as they moved east. Now he as well as yourself (others in and around C NC) have had numerous "under performers" over the last several weeks that's for sure. Also modeling is still all over the place in this area for today. None really show a solid line moving through, so kinda hit and miss for sure
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The SPC hasn't done that great for this neck of the woods recently. The tornado near Rocky Mount was warned too late, and that happened under a level 1 threat. And the other times when we were under a more elevated threat the storms were always to the south or ended up fizzling out before they got here. I know yesterday the models were all over the place for today's storm chances, and some weren't even showing any storms at all. I guess they are in better agreement today for storms. A level 3 and 4 threat is concerning, so folks definitely need to pay attention to the weather today.
 
SD said:
It'll be easy here for storms to be tied to better forcing N of our area and richer moisture just to our south with a skip in the middle. Doesn't mean that's what happens and obviously SPC and the local NWS offices are bullish on storm formation today. I have my personal concerns with the aerial coverage of the setup but the severe parameters that are in place are impressive and very much so for August that part can't be ignored with anything that forms
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HRRR just started showing the split now.


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The NAM shows a dying line as it enters the Triangle and a rapidly developing line in the Sandhills as it pushes towards the coast. So yeah, a split. At least we’ll have stratus clouds and some wind.
 
First tornado watch and a new severe watch just south of this
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metwannabe said:
To be fair, I'm sure @SD response of bust was based on a little more than yesterday's performance. Most guidance yesterday favored the western areas and storms diminishing as they moved east. Now he as well as yourself (others in and around C NC) have had numerous "under performers" over the last several weeks that's for sure. Also modeling is still all over the place in this area for today. None really show a solid line moving through, so kinda hit and miss for sure
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Models have been beefing things up for my area so it's trying to suck me in.
 
Huge difference between the 06z 3k and 12z 3k for my area near Wilmington

06z vs 12z
 

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Johnkittz said:
Why a severe thunderstorm watch and not a tornado watch? Are the ingredients better up north?
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I’m no where in the expert field. Just know enough to be dangerous. But I would think conditions and placement of the trough. They also expect the line to come together and better organize by the time it gets to us. Again, no expert but that is what I gather.
 
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