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Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

Chazwin said:
I agree... I’ve had a feeling since Sunday that today would be a bigger deal for the upstate and WNC including CLT metro. The sun is out and heating things up quick and the air just has that feel to it. I was suprised things got as active here yesterday after seeing overcast skies all morning and today there a lot fuel to set things off.
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Yeah there’s a overall lack of low level speed shear/directional shear today, but just enough (25kts or so) of effective shear to probably organize things into a MCS or a loosely organized MCS, that and the Lee trough should set things off today, overall tornado threat is very low, but could be a few-handful damaging microbursts events/some isolated large hail events today around our areas, further east towards Raleigh is a question, PBL might mix out quite a bit which would eat cape and weaken updrafts
 
Can’t sleep on tomorrow either plenty of dry air aloft with solid speed shear in the mid levels, while LRs aren’t that good the dry air aloft should make up for it a bit and allow a low wind/hail threat EFCE172F-08B2-40FB-9E58-2F34B67B2DBA.pngA143A097-F509-4D70-93C8-9C436E1E31B9.png79077EAE-C81B-409D-8AD4-40D8E07D7B3B.png68A53656-DF47-4B6E-82AC-BF96A411FDE9.png
 
Arcc said:
Hmm CC is still messy, but may have a tornado on the ground.
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The hook and ball on that thing is crazy. For it not to be producing something. Wondering if the radar beam and the cluttering are disrupting the view
 
@Arcc that looks like a tornado tbh. I bet your right on CC. Probably one that's near the ground. Absolute beast of a structure
 
Tight rotation for rotation that close to radar. Inflow is really good as well. This one is close to doing something or already is.Screenshot_20210504-090950.png
 
Arcc said:
That sure looks like a debris ball. If it’s not it’s definitely fooled me.
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Check New Orleans velocity. Press play and watch the last few scans looks like a CC drop in the middle of rotation.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah there’s a overall lack of low level speed shear/directional shear today, but just enough (25kts or so) of effective shear to probably organize things into a MCS or a loosely organized MCS, that and the Lee trough should set things off today, overall tornado threat is very low, but could be a few-handful damaging microbursts events/some isolated large hail events today around our areas, further east towards Raleigh is a question, PBL might mix out quite a bit which would eat cape and weaken updrafts
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What is PBL and why is it eating me out!
 
That jackson mississippi tornado was confined down. Saw a video
 
Full day of sun here. Expecting more storm coverage for NC today. Looks like MS, AR, LA, and of course AL are under the gun today for tornadoes.
 
It's pretty tight rotation. Seems like each cell on this choo choo line is spinning some.Screenshot_20210504-111725.pngScreenshot_20210504-111716.png
 
Meso forming right here. A notch is clearly being made. Also a very healthy looking cell
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Wind driven MDT, good thing I bought a new iPhone with good battery

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NickyBGuarantee said:
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We are getting more unstable and losing the last bit of cin. Let's see if anything starts kicking in the western piedmont over the next couple hours. That's a very well defined/structured cold pool to our west with a potential mcv or 2 embedded. I'm not sold on much around here but trends aren't terrible
 
Definitely some stout winds in that storm coming through Spartanburg county. Lots of lightning and tons of rain. We’ve had a good bit of rain the last 2 days as well
 
Man I'm in downtown birmingham right now. And the rain is astounding. Already starting to flood some here
 
While I’m not convinced we get some severe storms today I bet we see a good amount of rain from some of the leftover stuff ... had probably a quarter to a half of an inch yesterday ... hoping it’ll hold us off enough until the next bout of storms
 
Man, a lot of rain coming into the SE the next few hours. Another day of BIG temp variations. GSP 74, CLT 82, CAE 87 right now. Just 66 for me and my high has only been 68; definitely glad to be in the cooler sector!
 
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